Someone Please Confirm These Numbers.

[gcomeau]

if they're right I don't know how any argument can be raised against an investigation into massive voter fraud in Florida using the op-scan voting machines.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Just for example:

Franklin County. 77.3% of voters registered Dems. Only 15.9% registered Reps. 58.5% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Holmes County. 72.7% of voters registered Dems. Only 21.3% registered Reps. 77% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Calhoun County. 82.4% of voters registered Dems. Only 11.9% registered Reps. 63.4% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

And on, and on...

Please, someone confirm those numbers aren't bullshit, both the percentages of registered voters in those areas and the reported returns. If that's what actually got reported there's no way around a case for fraud.

-Grant

[Carl Brennan]

1. Great post. Now we need to find out if an audit is possible

:kick:

[TexasSissy]

3. How do you audit a machine w/o a paper trail?

[Carl Brennan]

4. I am begging the question. I don't have a copy of the Florida Constitution

but I understand that implied in any method of counting votes is to have a recount capability. If this is true then any voting process that does not have a recount possible is unconstitutional.

[kdmorris]

11. Wexler sued on those grounds

And lost before the election. The Florida Republican Leadership changed the rules. Glenda Hood wanted to just go ahead and change the law to state that the recount rule didn't apply to touch screen machines. A judge said "No, we must include them in the recount." But the judge failed to say HOW we were to include them in the recount.

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/article.php?id=2595

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-frecount28aug28,0,2152742.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

So, Wexler sued for a verifiable paper trail and lost that suit on October 25, 2004. The judge stated that not having a paper trail did not hinder a recount. :eyes:

http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65469,00.html?tw=wn_story_top5

I realize now that the Republican Attack Machine was in full swing starting right after the 2000 votes were certified by Katherine Harris, and just continued on through this year. This feels like it was well organized for years.

Of course, Wexler and many voting rights groups have been fighting this fight for months. One of Wexler's quotes:

"What the governor has invited is election night lawsuits by President Bush and Senator Kerry if there is a close election in Florida," Wexler said. "And there will be a calamity in Florida in 2004 which will make the 2000 election appear minuscule."

So, seems like what they did instead was make sure it wasn't close. How or what was done is almost impossible to determine (for me anyway). I can pull out stories I heard at work, but none of them provide concrete proof of what appears to be a serious effort to keep minorities from voting at all, so that they could avoid that "messy" election night close call. DISCLAIMER: I have no proof of that. If I had concrete proof, I would have already given it to someone that has the power to do something about it.

[NVMojo]

29. "election night lawsuits by President Bush and Senator Kerry "

...and that is a key. Obviously, they wanted to leave the condition of unstability in the election system in case Bush needed to sue instead of Kerry. Gotta remember that. No matter what, the Repukes worked hard 4 long years in key states with Repuke Secretary of States to do the things that needed to be done to make sure they won or to sue if they didn't. This is so frigging f-d up.

[Carl Brennan]

2. Here is the source material for the above data

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/ and http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/index.shtml for registered
voters by county and election results by county

http://vevo.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/ for voting machine type by county

[BeFree]

8. Amazing

The differences between 2000 and 2004 are fucking amazing!

The evidence is coming in and there are at least 11 days before the vote becomes official.

Kerry On!

[drfemoe]

23. If the Dems

didn't fight the 2000 results, what in Earth's gracious name makes anyone believe they will fight this year?

Kerry on? It seems to me that Kerry doesn't care to "Kerry on".
Discouraging.

I'm thinking third party at this point. One that has some fire in their belly.
They may not win, but Dems don't seem too concerned about that little point of interest anyway. :cry:

The purpose of DU, as I understand it, was/is to defeat whoosh and other Rs.
Mixed results so far, while depending and supporting the Democratic Party, sad to say.

I'll remain open minded at this point. I want to see a real desire from Democratic leaders to reclaim our country.

[pnorman]

33. My guess is that the DLC WON'T fight it.

If they do, then we have something to rally around. If not, either rally around the Dean-Kucinich community to RECLAIM the Democratic Party, or Third Party ... NO other choice.

pnorman

[m berst]

5. kick n/t

:kick:

[pk_du]

6. Look at Liberty County........

Total Registered Voters = 4075
Total Registered REPs = 237 ( yes thats right 237...)
Total Registered DEMs = 2667

How did the votes get "counted" on election day?

REP = 1927
DEM = 1070

% of voters who voted REP more that would be projected by registration alone = 712.3%

Fraud , Fuck-up or Real - either way SOME organization should be making 2667 phonecalls to very this one to start with.

[phish420]

7. Wow...KICK!

[ROH]

9. Can someone here do some further analysis?

I asked this in an earlier post. Sorry for duplication, but I think this is very important:

Let's assume that the E-Touchscreen voting figures are correct (they may not be of course), and calculate the percentage increases in the Rep and Dem votes compared to the Expected Votes totals.

Next apply those Rep and Dem percentage increases to the Expected Votes totals for the Op-Scan-Precinct voting figures. (Possibly more refinement is required here, but these calculations should at least give ballpark figures.)

Then add those Rep and Dem calculations to the Actual Results of the E-Touchscreen voting figures, and look at these overall Rep and Dem totals.

[Fla Dem]

55. I've been putting together a spreadsheet, but don't know how to

post it to this board. Also, someone a little more astute than me about political statistic should do the analyzing.

[Redleg]

10. Jeebus- is this for real? You may be on to something.

This could be fucking huge.

[SoCalDem]

13. Those numbers are small enough for a PERSON

to contact all the dems who actually voted, and just ASK them who they voted for..and have them be willing to swear in cout to that effect..

[MoonAndSun]

12. I would assume that the Kerry camp and the Dem party have

this info, are they waiting to act on this info, or will they let sleeping dogs lie?? Dare I hope they act on this info you have posted here?

[bluedog]

14. check these numbers by county

I can't get the chart to show right so heres the link

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/election/flapresbycounty.shtml

[pimpbot]

15. Hate to take off your tin foil hat but...

Here are the results from previous elections:


Registrations:
Liberty Dem: 3,597 Rep: 320
Union Dem: 5,331 Rep: 1,291

1992:
County Clinton Bush Marrou Ross Perot
Liberty 820 1,126 13 617
Union 1,247 1,543 7 770

1996:
County Clinton Dole Perot Browne
Liberty 868 913 376 7
Union 1,388 1,636 425 12

2000:
County Bush Gore
Liberty 1,317 1,017
Union 2,332 1,407


Those counties have tons more registered Dems than repukes, but apparently they all vote repub. Sucks :(

[ROH]

16. Do you have a link for the...

previous election figures from all of the Florida counties?

[DoYouEverWonder]

17. Here you go

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/FL/frameset.exclude.html

this is a real nice interface for pulling county by county results.

The report from ustogether.org is based on the official numbers.

[Spangle]

22. Reg numbers for those years

are needed if you wish to compare data.

Also to see the amount of reg, etc. And it is true that this is a Southern state with a "dixiecrat" problem. So some registered dems are really republicans.... Just still stuck in 1890.

However, there have been alot of new people registered in Florida. Those people wouldn't be dixiecrats. And the young wouldn't have a clue to what that means.

[Orangepeel]

40. there's not much data easily available, but in 1996 ...

Franklin County: 86.5% Democratic
Calhoun: 91.0% Democratic
Holmes: 89.5% Democratic

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/pdf/1996voterreg/96genparty.pdf

[kilaana]

30. Hmmmm...

Maybe they've been stealing elections there for years.

[NVMojo]

31. In Elko County, Nevada, they are claiming that ...

a large majority of Dems voted for Bush and that is what handed him the election in Nevada by 2% win....

I found it hard to believe ...

[ima_sinnic]

42. so basically they're going to be claiming that national results due to

party switching by Democratic voters.
That's the phony theme they were running among talk-show callers and ltte's, people claiming to be disgruntled Dems, remember?

[Skinner]

18. This needs a kick. (nt)

[goclark]

19. Kick and my thoughts too

I had a post on Nov. 3rd.
It was along the lines of taking just one county or two in Ohio.
Get those registered Democrats to sign a loyalty oath that they voted and they voted for Kerry.

Everyone keeps saying there is no paper trail.


But, every polling place,to my knowledge, has a book that has you sign in. That book should remain a legal document that can be called into court.

Most places give you at least a stub from your ballot.

But in the Black Box Bush Voting (BBBV) Areas, they probably give at least one of those stickers that say "I have voted."

Please somebody,ask for a recount in Ohio, in just one or two locations and see what you get!

I say the OATHS and the Vote Count by BBB elves will be overwhelming for Kerry.

[Out the Parasites]

45. kick - what the hell is going on? ARGH!

[maxsmom]

20. willing to do Ohio numbers also

but she needs the same type of data. Anyone have any idea where to get the same type of data from Ohio???

[johnnie]

21. Can most of the missing percentages be absentee ballots?

And what is happening with those? Have they all been counted?

[Amaya]

24. Damnnnnnnnnnn

kick:kick:

[Mr_Spock]

25. Do you also have historical voting data for these folks?

There are areas of Florida that are Dems who vote Repuke nwo, now we need to also look at recent trends (IE 2000). This will tell the entire story!

[Caution]

26. You are correct. In Florida, on average 10,000 Dems per county voted Bush

And this assumes that 100% of registered Republicans went to the polls and voted Bush, AND that 100% of registered Independents went to the polls and voted Bush. According to the figures, over 500,000 registered Democrats in Florida voted for Bush. I find this VERY hard to believe, but no one seems to have noticed, let alone reported it.

[symphony]

59. please send this piece of the puzzle to

johnkerry.com

and anyone else who could make a difference. I'll go look for threads and come back to edit.

[AzDar]

27. kick n/t

[NVMojo]

28. And if an audit is possible, what really will be done about it?

Do Kerry and Edwards still want to fight?

[motionsuggests]

32. putting my tinfoil cap back on

A) If one was to commit voter fraud, it would very likely be in counties where past voting trends would cover up vote manipulation. In that case, numbers would be exagerrated, but not out of line with statistical precedent. I mean you aren't going to make Broward county 3 to 1 Bush, that is just asking for it.
B) The numbers just don't add up for more democrats voting for Bush this election, maybe a continuation of the trend, but not a huge jump like some of those numbers. Everywhere else in the country voters are split, but in these few counties democrats voted even more often for Bush? Seems unlikely.

Who knows.

[Hephaistos]

34. What almost clinches it are the graphs

on the linked page:

http://ustogether.org/election04/florida_vote_patt.htm

They show that the general deviation of actual voting patterns from registration appears to be almost completely explained by two factors:

- voting technology: optical scan precincts deviate
- precinct size: small precincts deviate

While we have been looking at large, urban precincts and electronic voting machines, the suspicious patterns occur in small, probably rural precincts and with optical scan technology.

The data are still not completely conclusive, because there are very few small precincts using electronic voting. As a result, it could be argued that the deviation is explained by precinct size alone (rural precincts go heavily to Bush - not a surprise).

A statistical factor analysis (multi-factor linear regression?) could clarify how strongly the effect is determined by either factor.

If it is shown to be determined by voting technology AT ALL, we have a case for fraud.

[Hephaistos]

35. What we need is recounts in some of these smaller rural counties

with op-scan technology. There has to be some issue or race that was almost tied in one of them.

[Expat_Kristen]

36. What we need

...is a statistician to look at these numbers carefully, and historically. The records are there - does anyone know someone in a math dept at a college or university that would be willing to take on this task? Discussing it here is hardly likey to get us anywhere. We need a compiled, authentic report that we can then take to the media.

[ima_sinnic]

37. optical scan is best type for auditing--DOES have paper trail

--ballots are marked by bubbling circles with a pen, then deposited into reader.
they can be audited IF all the paper is there that is supposed to be there.
auditing the ballots that are present + voter phone surveys as mentioned above would seem a very good way to test these numbers.

[intheflow]

49. Boulder, CO is doing massive manual recount due to opscan malfunction

Taking days to do it to make sure it's done right. We have a candidate there, Stan Matsunaka, who's refusing to concede loss of a congressional seat to Marilyn Musgrave, the Repuke who put the gay marriage ban constitutional amendment before the House.

http://www.dailycamera.com/bdc/election/article/0,1713,...

[Orangepeel]

38. Sure bears looking into. But keep in mind that FL has a lot of Dixiecrats

Let's take Franklin County as an example. I don't know that much about it, but it is in North Florida, which historically votes conservatively, despite how many Democrats are registered. I believe that it is represented in Congress by Alan Boyd, who is a conservative Democrat.

In past presidential races, it has tended to split about evenly, except that Clinton got 50% in his second race.

2000
52.8% Bush
44.0% Gore

1996
50.2 Clinton
30.6 Dole
19.2 Perot

1992
38.0 Bush
35.1% Clinton
24.1% Perot

1988
58.5 Bush
39.3 Dukakis

on edit: data for all florida counties can be found at
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/index.asp

[NewYorkerfromMass]

60. Kerry should not do worse than Dukakis anywhere in 2004

but your history shows him basically replicating Dukakis in 1988 with 58.5 Bush and 40.4 Kerry.
I am curious how often that happened elsewhere.

[YusefHawkins]

39. Unseat Local Officials- We can go after them

Until we go after the local elections officials in each state and populate their offices with fair and just persons so that ballot spoilage, provisional and absentee ballots and paperless e-voting machines are tabulated fairly and justly our cause is lost. You have to win local elections in order to win national elections. Incompetent/Corrupt state and county officials must be replaced in areas that they can be replaced. We have the resources to do it we just proved it. We must do this nationally before we lose the blue states. We can't wait we have to do it now! This election is lost so the time is now to take back the country. Not only do we need a paper trail we need the Officials to make sure it is handled properly and not dumped into the spoiled ballot and uncounted absentee and provisional ballots. MAKE EVERY SMALL LOCAL/RURAL ELECTION A NATIONAL ELECTION by making sure the correct candidates and officials are backed. Especially in Florida!!! Karl Rove is correct it isn't who votes that counts it's WHO COUNTS THE VOTES stupid.

[tinrobot]

41. How about we make 2500 phone calls?

These precincts are pretty small, can we call each and every one of these registered voters and ask how they voted?

Do our own little recount.

[chimp chump]

43. Even if...

...you have proof of fraud leading directly to Bush, once you certify the electors, it's still a done deal. The electoral college will elect Bush on, what, December 14.

Even if you got some to abstain from Bush, it would go to the House and they'd appoint Bush. You'd have to change at least 9 Bush electors into Kerry electors to overturn the election.

That could only happen with proof of massive fraud pointing directly at the GOP. And it would only work if you could tie it directly to Bush/Rove/Cheney.

The Constitution is pretty inflexible on these matters. Read up on it. The Constitution and the clarifying amendment which unified election day across the country specifies that the electors *must* be chosen on the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

[Nederland]

44. Nothing surprising here

The results match the historical trends.

[Awsi Dooger]

52. Thank you, finally an accurate post

Actually there were one or two much earlier in this thread. DUers are unfamiliar with Florida voting patterns and the DINO aspects of many counties. Some of them vote 7-2 for any Republican, and have for decades.

Why are we wasting time on Florida? If anything happened it was Ohio. We got our ass kicked in Florida. People here are fixated with exit polls, but never bother to look at the internals, not simply the bottom line number. Even the earliest Florida exit polls screamed Kerry was losing a much greater number of blacks than Gore did, same among Hispanics and white women, the group that was always going to decide this election.

[RaleighNCDUer]

46. At least opti-scan machines have paper ballots that can be

hand counted -- but IIRC Florida only allows for recounts if the vote is close. If there is a blow-out that defies registration patterns, something that would be a red flag in any emerging democracy, there is still no legal justification for a recount.

IOW, if you cheat, be sure to cheat big.

[motionsuggests]

47. Bear in mind

Like I said, before, these aren't amateurs. They aren't going to telegraph what they're doing. Counties with historical trends such as these are prime candidates, because it gives a logical excuse.

Just makes you wonder sometimes how Bush runs through life with his eyes closed and still is in one piece at the end of the day. He sure has some diligent guardian angels. ;)

[loudsue]

48. "He sure has some diligent guardian angels." ..er, DEVILS!!!

I don't think there are any "angels" that would have much to do with shrubya. :evilgrin:

:kick:

[jackson]

50. CIA knew Florida's numbers a week BEFORE election night

The CIA knew the exact percentages won by Bush and Kerry in Florida one week BEFORE the election, according to a source I trust. Florida is CIA country, full of many retired and current agents.
You KNOW there was a lot of funny business in that state.

[motionsuggests]

51. Right

And I heard one where the president sent us to war in the middle east on phony evidence. conspiracy-theorists, hmmph.

[SeveneightyWhoa]

53. "A source I trust"?

I don't know if someone with 88 posts giving us such information is a source I can trust.

Sorry.

[DCal]

54. Results in 2000 were close to the 2004 results in these counties

Calhoun County: 57% Bush (2000) vs. 63% Bush (2004)
Holmes County: 70% Bush (2000) vs. 77% Bush (2004)
Franklin County: 54% Bush (2000) vs. 58% Bush (2004)
Liberty County (mentioned later in the thread): 57% Bush (2000) vs. 64% Bush (2004)

Source for 2000 results:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/FL/

The registration numbers on the Secretary of State's office match what you have for the 2004 General Election. But, in looking at the registration by party and race, it shows that about 90% of the Democrats in these four counties are white.

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/pdf/2004/2004genPtyRace.pdf

All of these counties are in the Florida panhandle, either in Congressional District 1 (which went 69% for Bush in 2000) or CD 2 (which went 53% for Bush in 2000).

So, a possible explanation is that these are Yellow Dog Democrats in a part of the state that more resembles Alabama than the rest of Florida.

[Awsi Dooger]

57. Good work, DCal

DUers are doing admirable examination of the numbers. They fail to understand the complex nature of Florida, very much the deep South in some regions and completely opposite in others. I looked at the big counties first, then the smaller ones this morning. Nothing out of whack. We lost because the state economy was much better than the national economy, and therefore George/Jeb more popular than any of us dare to believe.

[KerryDownUnder]

62. Yeah, what you said...

:)

[kerry2win]

56. 55%dems-26% rep all counties op scan!!! average

IS THIS CORRECT totals bush with a 500,000 vote lead from those counties with that breakdown???...(19% ind.)

[symphony]

58. you're kidding me !!!

I hear Soros is looking for info on voter fraud.


Oh,JK,why did you concede so early!!! Yes, I know, it has no legal value, but I don't see any effort on the highest level to fight.

[KerryDownUnder]

61. I don't want to get flamed for delivering facts, but...

Bush won Franklin county in 2000 by 407 votes or 54.5% of the total vote;
Bush won Holmes county in 2000 by 2,835 votes or 69.7% of the total vote;
Bush won Calhoun county in 2000 by 717 votes or 57.1% of the total vote.

Yes, Bush did better in these counties than he did in 2000, but regardless of the registration totals it isn't a surprise that he won them.