What is the projected turnout for the Iowa caucuses?

[dansolo]

With the weather being cold, but otherwise nice, and a national holiday, are they expecting a greater than normal turnout for the Iowa caucuses?

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. 120,000+

That's the figure I keep hearing.

[Renew Deal]

2. I heard 135,000 from Gep this morning.

If it is above that it is considered dangerous for Dean.

[w4rma]

3. That makes no sense. Good turnout is good for Dean, IMHO. (n/t)

[Renew Deal]

5. That's one the talking heads on MTP said today.

I guess they are considering union and vet votes for Gep and Kerry

[ModerateMiddle]

6. each campaign has its own "hard count"

of how many caucus attendees it will "definitely have". For each candidate, this will be the numerator. No one knows what the denominator will be. You take your hard count numerator, and divide it by what you think will be the total caucus attendees, and you have your "share" of the vote.

[arewethereyet]

10. kinda depends on who's supporters turn out

if Gephardt's union guys turn up, its good for Gephardt.

if people who perfer a clean campaign and a great, positive message turn out, its good for Edwards.

if long term dems show in numbers its Kerry.

if the crabby internet people can log off for two hours then it helps Dean.

from what I hear, Gephardt stands to have the best result. there are a lot of his sorts of union guys in Iowa.

[IndianaGreen]

4. Tom Brokaw said that it will take 35,000 votes to win the caucus

and he added, "35,000 votes out of a state with 3 million voters."

[KaraokeKarlton]

7. That's all? Only 35,000?

Hehehehehehe

I really, really can't wait until tomorrow! ;)

[auburnblu]

9. 35,000 may be right based on the current polls

Based on the tight 4 way race so far, 35,000 just may do it. How many registered Democrats are there in Iowa. We heard that DC turnout was really low at 8%. But what percentage of voters participate in the Iowa Caucus? I think I remember 1.3 million votes were cast in Iowa in 2000 and Gore won by about 4,000 votes. So knocking out independents, seems like Gore had at least 600,000 votes and in the Iowa Caucus in 2000 only 60,000 people voted. The Iowa caucus may make a few people in Iowa feel important, but the process seems to disenfranchise a hell of a lot of voters.

It does not encourage more voter participation, it encourages arm twisting and people feeling pressured to vote a certain way.

[morningglory]

8. A pundit recently said there was a 60K turnout in 2000. Back in the days

of the Big Dog when we were all fat and happy and employed. I made some smoked mullet dip and got some crackers so we are going to sit on the sofa and watch the turnout numbers, hoping a large turnout will be a predictor for November.

[kentuck]

12. It should be at least double the turnout of 2000...

There's a lot more interest this time around....for some unknown reason.. :)

[goodhue]

11. 100,000

plus or minus several tens of thousands