BBV: GWB's 1 Million New Florida Votes Found – A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

[althecat]

Links to full dataa and more here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x21834

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FINDINGS

INTRODUCTION
1. As we already know Bush gained 1,042,733 votes in Florida, more than 300,000 more than his next biggest gaining state Texas. As a percentage of his 2000 vote this represents a 36% increase. (compared to an average 17% increase over the entire nation)

2. Gore also made substantial gains in Florida in total 663,461 votes or a 23% increase.

3. Bush's majority after all this was 381,396 votes.

BIGGEST GAINS IN NUMERIC TERMS
4. The biggest single county contributions to Bush's gain came from Miam- Dade with 69,000 new votes (24% increase). This was closely followed by Duval with 68k (44% increase), Broward with 66k (37% increase), Hillsborough with 64k (35%), Palm Beach with 59k (39%) and Orange with 57k (42% increase).

5. The top six counties account for 382,000 votes in Bush's new vote tally or 37% of his total gains. The top ten account for 533,323 votes and 51% of his total gains.

TOUCH SCREEN USAGE & BUSH VOTE GAINS
6. With the exception of Duval and Orange counties four of the top six vote gain counties used Touch screen voting. It is notable howeveer that Duval and Orange both show higher levels of new Bush vote than the TS counties.

7. Three more of the top 10 bush vote gaining counties used Touch screens meaning 7 out of the top ten bush vote gaining counties used Touch Screens.

8. Overall TS counties in Florida account for 480,304 of bush's total vote increase.

BIGGEST GAINS IN % TERMS
9. Three counties Osceola, Dixie & Sumter recorded bush gains of over 60%. A further eight Flagler, Columbia, Levy, Pasco, Wakulla, St. Johns, Gilchrist & Lake showed increases of over 50% over 2000.

10. Together these 11 counties account to 125,000 of bushes gained votes. Howevr most are small and four of them Osceola, Pasco, St. Johns and Lake are responsible for 95,600 of these gains.

BUSH VOTE GAINS IN KERRY VOTING COUNTIES
11. John Kerry won the vote in 11 counties.

12. Bush made nearly as much voting gains in these counties as he did overall 34% vs 36% for the state as a whole.

13. In all Bush gained 324,918 votes in Kerry counties. The big five were Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Volusia. Between them providing 280,000 new bush votes.


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OVERALL COMMENTS

I had wondered whether I might find a bigger spread of vote gains across the state. I.E. that the vote gains would be fairly clearly located in some distinct locations. However that is not the case. And in the circumstances that is not surprising as there was such a huge number of new bush votes if they were spread less thinly they would stand out even more than they do.

The exception to this rule is the county of Gables which did not show any significant increase in Bush vote. I would be interested to know why this is.

Overall there is an incredibly strong swing shown in these results to Bush. I am not certain if such a swing has a precedent in American voting history. It certainly doesn't in British, Australian or NZ political history to my knowledge.

It is more than a little odd that there are such large voting gains by bush in several of the large Kerry leaning counties. Does anyone have an explanation for this.

Finally there is as expected a clear correlation between touch screens and large bush vote gains in numeric terms.

This is significant because if vote shaving were taking place… that is votes being taken from Kerry and Given to bush inside these machines (but keeping the overall turnout numbers correct) then the effect on the final result of the gains experienced in these counties by bush is multiplied by two… that is – if you take one votes off Bush and it to Kerry then Kerry is two votes closer to Bush in the horse race.

If only half of the bush gains in the TS counties (480,000 votes) are a result of vote shaving then that alone would be enough to turn this result around.


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WHAT NEXT

Several counties stand out from this analysis for further attention. Ideally we now need some on the ground comment from these counties plus precinct by precinct results.

Firstly Osceola and Pasco show huge % gains and considerable numeric gains for Bush. Who was running the republican GOTV campaign in these counties?

If these results are not a result of vote tampering then the GOTV operatives ought to be writing books about how to motivate a political base and running seminars. All political operatives have something to learn from these people.

Secondly Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Volusia are all large Kerry voting counties that showed huge gains in bush votes. Why? Again who was running the GOTV campaigns. If someone in the media could track down the republican operatives in these areas and get an account of how they achieved this coup it would be more than valuable. Alternatively there must be Dem activists in these counties that know what happened on the ground.

There is much more that deserves looking at…. In my view any of the states that showed an over 40% in Bush votes ought to be providing an explanation.

These are…

Osceola, Dixie, Sumter, Flagler, Columbia, Levy, Pasco, Wakulla, St. Johns, Gilchrist, Lake, Clay, Washington, Marion, Lafayette, Liberty, Union, Nassau, Duval, Walton, Seminole, Santa Rosa, Orange, Franklin, Manatee, Alachua, Bradford, Suwannee, Palm Beach.

And that's enough for now…


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[DoYouEverWonder]

1. The big give away

is the counties in North Florida, where the Optical scanners are located are much more conservative. So we are seeing huge increases in counties that have a majority of Democrats going to Bush, but in the counties that have a majority of Republicans we are not seeing any increases. If Bush really got out his base, you would have seen the biggest increases in the counties where his base resides. Not the other way around.

This stinks like a kettle of rotten fish.

Good luck, I hope this tidbit helpf.

[KittyWampus]

2. Thank You For Making Another Very Salient Point

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Edit your #2

It should be Kerry, not Gore

[TruthIsAll]

4. This is what you should do....

We need to compare Bush% vs. Gore in 2000 to Bush% vs. Kerry for Touchscreen vs. non-Touchscreen counties.

Let's see where Bush made his largest relative gains.

For instance, if he averaged consistently higher gains in TS vs. non-TS counties, we have the basis for further analysis.

We need to determine if the differences are significant.

Thanks for all your work.

TIA

[Awsi Dooger]

5. That is the right thing to do -- compare, compare, compare

I'm not a cynic but I'm more than willing to take a look. Enough ranting and we should be able to get paper trails, at the very least.

Some DUers last night were speculating the optical scan machines may have been monkeyed with, not touch screens. I have not looked at those optical scan counties yet. The big touch screen counties in Florida don't show any percentage gain for Bush that isn't predictable, given the nation as a whole. I haven't checked Ohio or other Diebold areas, primarily because I'm most familiar with Florida and the partisanship of the various regions and counties.

[TruthIsAll]

12. Ok, Awsie, now compare this:

[gristy]

16. Holy vote-fraud, Batman!

This is quite compelling. A couple things that could help drive the point home:

1) Need footnotes/references/links to show where the numbers came from.
2) Need to do this for all 50 states, then calculate the average differential (poll minus ballot tally) for paper ballot states and the average differential for electronic voting.
3) More visually stunning than just the two numbers you get out of (2), use a bar graph to graph the differential (poll minus ballot tally) on the Y axis and on the X axis indicate the state. Use the color of the bar to indicate the type of voting. Red for electronic. Blue for paper. It will be just amazing to see all that RED on the RIGHT.

With your help, that bar graph in (3) could be in the NY Times sometime very soon. Send it to Adam Cohen at the Times.

[althecat]

21. AusieDooger.. you are a promordial pain in the neck on this stuff...

You keep making remarks that have no basis in fact..

" I have not looked at those optical scan counties yet."

You have looked at them.. you had a huge argument with IndependentTexan about them including examples...

"The big touch screen counties in Florida don't show any percentage gain for Bush that isn't predictable, given the nation as a whole."

Crapola.... the increases in the bush vote in these counties relative to the increase in the vote over the nation as a whole is completely out of kilter... it is 34% compared to 17%.... that is exactly 100% higher..

Significantly Bush also makes these huge gains in Kerry leaning counties and in doing so gets substantially more new votes than Kerry does with an obvious and acknowledged huge GOTV campaign on the ground. This is conspicuously suspicious.

I would really appreciate it if rather than making unsubstantiated statements like the above with an air of authority you could use your considerable knowledge of Florida to explain the huge bush turn outs first in the TS counties, and secondly the huge 64% increases in some of the OS counties...

Nobody has so far explained this.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Facts are a pain in the neck, when dealing with blindfolded cynics

I have not looked at optical scan counties by specific relationship to 2000, other than side by side glances. My focus has been on Diebold touch screen counties. I had no significant back and forth argument with AIndependent Texan. He was gone when I discovered his thread, that Tampa's Hillsborough County was somehow expected to net 30,000 for Kerry. Anyone who knows Florida understands that's outright garbage. Atop this very thread, you cite Hillsborough as another glorious example of a county where Bush robbed with mystery bonus votes. I shot you down again in a post later in this thread. So sorry.

Perhaps you missed my thread several weeks ago, that our registration and GOTV advantages were pure lunacy, invented by DUers who wanted to believe we had a 3% pillow as a backup. In Florida since 2000, we LOST ground in registration. Only slightly, but that is expanded by the FACT Democrats do not vote in as loyal a percentage as the GOP, generally by 4-5%. That happened in Florida and elsewhere, virtually everywhere. A 1/1 reguistration ratio favors them, not us, and also because we targeted the youth vote while they sought out older rural voters, who turn out with greater reliability.

Wow, Bush's gross vote percentages increased more in the battleground states where the registration battles were waged, and where the campaigns fought it out with commercials all year. Somehow it didn't go up quite as much in Wyoming or Idaho or North Dakota. I'm going to have to write that down.

[althecat]

30. Tis funny how diebold invariably brings out the worst round here...

Sorry if I mistook you for engaging in a debate in this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1314823&mesg_id=1314823

So far as Hillsborough is concerned I reply to your post where you "shoot me down" below. And fairly clearly.

Finally. If you are so convinced you lost the GOTV race and you know why then that is the story I want to hear. And if you can point to any evidence - news reports etc... I would be keen to see them.

You have repeatedly said you worked on GOTV... but you have not yet said where. Nor explained anything about how your personal efforts went. Both bits of info would be helpful.

al

[Awsi Dooger]

32. See post #29

I included an anecdote regarding my father's experince in Miami. Not saying it's representative, but probably some indication we wren't exactly as organized and superior as we were led to believe. I sampled online newspapers for years, and the GOP had modified and drastically improved it's GOTV strategy and emphasis since 2002. Ground tested in both 2001 and especially 2002. Ralph Reed was the GOP coordinator of Georgia in 2002. This year he supervised the entire southeast including Florida. Bush went from 55% in the south to 58% this year, if I remmeber correctly.

My GOTV in Las Vegas was similar to 2002. Volunteering at the end and helping to canvas and call. In 2002 I helped my friend with a GOTV van for a few hours. When we arrived at polling places it looked like our advantage, but Clark County is majority Democratic so I couldn't tell the significance. When we only netted 28,000, or whatever, from here I knew we were finished statewide.It was exciting when we heard early exit polls from the east and midwest that things were looking good. I got home just in time to witness the collapse.

Las Vegas is Diebold, but with paper trails. We did not match the expected numbers or Gore's margin from 2000 either.

[althecat]

35. Well at last we have a narrative explanation other than fraud...

.. however I would like to see it developed a bit more. Thanks for this though it certainly helps fill out the picture.

It would help heaps if some of the Florida DUers would chime in and tell us what went down on the day.

al

[althecat]

17. I did that... and the results are in the analysis...

Hi TIA,

Loved your WRONG thread... when I get around to publishing all these findings I would be keen to use that as the intro. Hope that is cool with you.

The details you seek are in the spread sheet linked in this thread..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x21834

The percentage increases in TS counties is not larger than it is in Opti-scan. However the total numbers of votes gained by bush in the TS counties is higher than that in opti-scan counties. As I say above seven of the top 10 counties in terms of new bush voters are TS counties.

As both TS and OS are hackable this is not that surprising. What is interesting is the level of vote stacking and theft that will have been necessary to steal this race. With Kerry's GOTV mobilising at least 660,0000 voters (maybe more if some of them were stolen in TS counties) Bush had to pull out all stops in order to win Florida.

Remember of all the states this is the one that he had to win.

[Eloriel]

36. it's NOT JUST TOUCHSCREENS

The optical scanners have some of the same software and definitely the same vulnerabilities. So IMO the breakouts ought to include, but separately, TS and OS.

Nice work, Al. I'll come back and read it when my brain isn't drooping.

:hi:

[DoYouEverWonder]

6. Here's a link to the offical tally's for Florida

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/20041102_DET_PRE.html

Duval County was the one that stuck out like a sore thumb to me. Somehow Bush found 66,000 more votes this time? Compared to Kerry picking up only 49,000 more votes. This is the county where over 19,000 people, mostly Dems, were denied the right to vote in 2000. Sorry, I'm not buying these numbers at all.



The official count for Duval is 218476 - Bush 157624 - Kerry


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/FL/frameset.exclude.html


In 2000 the counts for Duval were 152460 - Bush 108039 - Gore

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Actually, Duval makes perfect sense

Exactly what I would have projected if someone would have told me Bush would win nationally by 51-48.

I was going to leave this thread alone, but since these big Florida Diebold counties keep coming up, I'll make a separate post in this thread to question the Diebold crap once again.

[TruthIsAll]

11. You keep using 51-48 as if it were a legit result.

That is your biggest mistake.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. There doesn't seem to be a reply box to your post with the charts

Are those your own charts? Or was there a source? I would like to evaluate an entire sample, not cherrypicked ones. What you have here is very interesting. I'm hardly a proponent of BBV. But if we could get electronic machines that are reliable and fair, it should actually help Dems, not hurt, because so few votes in huge urban areas would be discarded.

I was working GOTV Monday and didn't see the full list of early exit polls. My friend told me some of them were ludicrous, like Kerry 60 Bush 40 in Pennsylvania. I can already see evidence of that in two ou provide -- North Carolina and especially New Hampshire. No chance NH was ever 57-41 in either direction.

It sucks with VNS out of business. I trusted them completely for exit polls. The AP model might be flawed, or not adjusted well from state to state. I remind you that early indications from 2002 were way off in our favor also: Strickland killing Allard in Colorado (he lost by 6), Bowles up high single digits in NC (he lost by similar), McBride within 2 in FL (lost by double digits -- admittedly had Diedold already).

I have looked at patterns in non-BBV states to question the 51-48. So far very little evidence it doesn't hold up.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. My mistake; I'm on a laptop with a small screen

I didn't scroll to the right far enough to see all your charts and the place for a reply. Frankly, the 60-40 in PA and 57-41 in NH are evidence to me the exit polls were flawed, at least as much as BBV conspiracy. You have the state polls, TruthIsAll. There were never any numbers like that in those two states.

[althecat]

24. !!!!! You will make me pull my hair out soon !!!

You keep making the most bizarre observations.

"It sucks with VNS out of business. I trusted them completely for exit polls. "

1. Mitofsky conducted the polls for VNS now he does them for the AP consortium. The polls are done by the same people.
2. VNS is arguably one of the most secretive (& untrustworthy) outfits involved in the elections. When they kept the 2002 results secret altogether they lost all credibility and so have now disappeared.

You say..

"I was working GOTV Monday."

Where.... and what did you see? Did you see republicans working GOTV like whirling dervishes? Necause according to the official record that you seem to put so much faith in the DNC got GOTV'd out of the water in Florida.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. I didn't know that regarding VNS and AP

If true, the people and models are the same, their trend is toward incompetence. Do you really believe an accurate representative sample of New Hampshire would show 57-41, or 60-40 in Pennsylvania? If so, good luck, pal.

I never said I worked GOTV in Florida. I did so in Las Vegas. We were 50/50 with the GOP at best. If you want an example from South Florida, where you claim to have such great insight to our ground superuiority while the GOP lounged on South Beach, I'll provide one I already mentioned twice on DU.

My 71 year old dad, with zero experience in campaigns, volunteered to canvas for Kerry two weeks ago. He couldn't believe how disorganized and understaffed the outfit was, in suburban Miami. The lists were old and misleading, the maps innacurate. People were working for one hour a day then not showing up until the next day. My dad said he would canvas a 6 by 7 block area and come up with maybe 5 hits in a 40 home sample. Others had moved or weer Bush supporters. On Monday, the precinct manager quit, one day prior to the election. My father, with two weeks experience, was put in charge for Tuesday.

[althecat]

31. Now that's more like it.... you are warming to me now I can tell

I don't beleive the exit polls were gospel. And I do not claim to know anything about GOTV in FLorida.. I asked because I genuinely want answers to these questions. So thanks.

FYI after VNS expired they offered the job to a Bechtel subsiduary before Mitofsky got it back.

[Samantha]

14. I thought that county had a really high percentage of African-Americans?

I thought I saw a prediction that Kerry would carry at least 83 percent of the African-American vote, and that 8 percent was undecided. The balance would be for Bush.* ???? I am surprised.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Duval County is Jacksonville

Smack on the northeast corner of Florida touching Georgia. High concentrations of blacks in some precinct areas downtown, but a sprawling county with plenty of rural areas that resemble the deep South.

[progressivebydesign]

7. I remember the moment, on election night, when I KNEW the fix was in..

.. the media breathlessly reported that JEB had called George to give him "good news" that several Florida counties that went to Gore in 2000, had gone to Bush. When Bush summoned the media, in an UNPRECENDTED fashion, to his side (with the dog for effect), for a mid-voting photo op.. I knew what was up.

[robbedvoter]

8. Thank you! I was afraid Florida would be ignored (Palast tackled Ohio)

That is very relevant, considering all the blacks staying in lines to vote for a week in those counties....In Miami dade that didn't yeld Kerry anymore extra votes than Gore....Now we know where they went.

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. kick

n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Of course gross numbers go up; the percentages scream Diebold was legit

You're just giving me more ammo to deflect this nonsense. In a thread I posted last night I demonstrated the big southeastern counties -- Dade, Broward, Palm Beach -- did not vary significantly, if at all, in terms of expected percentage from 2000 to 2004. Florida and Ohio are not bubbled states, immune from factors that influence the rest of the nation. When almost every state tilts somewhat more toward Bush in 2004 than 2000, you have to apply that to bellwether states like Ohio and Florida and not expect them to magically side strongly with Kerry.

Duval County 2000:
Bush 152,460 58.5%
Gore 108,039 41.5%

Now let's add 10,000 black votes, 9000 of them to Gore:
Bush 153,460 56.7%
Gore 117,039 43.3%

Now 20,000 black votes, 18,000 to Gore:
Bush 154,460 55.1%
Gore 126,039 44.9%

How is any of that out of whack with Duval 2004?:
Bush 218,476 58.1%
Kerry 157,624 41.9%

Again, the percentages change exactly as expected, from not at all if you discount the overvotes/undervotes from 2000, up to 3% maximum if 20,000 are added and logically distributed. But let's continue with this fun:

Hillsborough 2000:
Bush 180,724 51.6%
Gore 169,576 48.4%

Hillsborough 2004:
Bush 243,816 53.4%
Kerry 212,749 46.6%

Amazing, a tiny boost in Bush's direction, 1.8% to be exact.

Let's check out Orange County, also isolated atop this thread as evidence of Bush's sinister 1 million vote gain:

Orange 2000:
Bush 134,531 49.0%
Gore 140,236 51.0%

Orange 2004:
Bush 191,389 49.9%
Kerry 192,030 50.1%

Geez, a massive .9% pickup for Bush, while the country as a whole went from 48.4 Gore, 47.9 Bush in 2000 to 51.35 Bush, 48.30 Kerry in 2004. There's our proof of Florida fraud.

All I see is slight preference to Bush, in relation to 2000, state by state and county by county. This Diebold case would have weight if the country favored Kerry but isolated Diebold or BBV states/counties raced dramatically the other way. I'm still awaiting any evidence.

[gristy]

18. There is no compelling proof of vote fraud just by comparing %'s from

2000 to %'s from this election. TIA's comparison of exit polls to final ballot tallies is where the gold is.

[althecat]

25. Gristy the purpose of this exercise is not to prove fraud..

It is to locate it.... i.e. to find out where it occurred... so we can then look closer and narrow it down.

Read the WHAT NEXT section in the report above and you will see what I mean.

[althecat]

27. You are resolutely comitted to not seeing the Gorilla in your kitchen...

You persist in not seeing the wood for the trees. These statistics are completely out of wack with the 48 x 51.... and the reason is simple. In Florida there was such an incredible turnout that you have to look closer.... usually if there is a swing.. one candidates voters move to the other. In Florida we have the very unusual case of both candidates achieving huge increases in total vote. Bush 36% vs Kerry 23%.

Using your own statistics...

First DUVAL COUNTY

Now 20,000 black votes, 18,000 to Gore:
Bush 154,460 55.1%
Gore 126,039 44.9%

How is any of that out of whack with Duval 2004?:
Bush 218,476 58.1%
Kerry 157,624 41.9%

This is out of whack because Bush received an extra 70,000 votes.... this is a 44% increase in his vote. While Kerry only achieved a 25% increase in his vote. But we know that it wsa Kerry's voters that were queing for hours and casting thousands of early ballots...

OK now HILLSBOROUGH

Hillsborough 2000:
Bush 180,724 51.6%
Gore 169,576 48.4%

Hillsborough 2004:
Bush 243,816 53.4%
Kerry 212,749 46.6%

Here bush finds 63,000 new votes a 35% increase... Kerry manages 25%... how come bushes GOTV was so much better?

AND FINALLY ORANGE

Orange 2000:
Bush 134,531 49.0%
Gore 140,236 51.0%

Orange 2004:
Bush 191,389 49.9%
Kerry 192,030 50.1%

Orange shows an incredible 42% increase in the Bush vote. As explained your repeated 48/51 analysis simply does not work in florida as nothing about these stats is normal.

In the case of the Kerry vote we were expecting it to be abnormal. News about the GOTV campaign was everywhere... but as several people have pointed out. Where are the pictures of huge lines of fundamentalist christians turning up to vote in these counties. Why haven't the republican GOTV organisers all been given medals?

[Awsi Dooger]

34. First of all, you used the best case scenario for Duval in 2000

I listed three numbers and you picked the one most favorable to the difference in percentage. If you take the actual numbers the percentage difference is not as dramatic. Also, Duval had only one early voting precinct this year, and it was far away from the downtown black populus.

A simple explanation regarding Hillsborough. You conveniently leave out Nader in assessing the 2000 numbers. A Tampa radio station promoted Nader incessantly during 2000. Something like 1/3 of Nader's Florida total of 92,000 came from Hillsborough and another county within that radio station's signal. If you give Gore the vast majority of those, his Hillsborough number in relation to Kerry's makes more sense.

Regarding Orange, Bush gained 57,000 and Kerry (from Gore) 52,000. Was that illegal?

Finally, my greatest fear all year was we were ignoring Republican GOTV advances and strength. I mentioned that often, but never an initiated thread. DUers don't like stuff like that; it's better to be a cheerleader around here which is not my style. A warning thread about Republican GOTV would have been met with the same fury that accompanied my assessment our registration drives were nice, but overrrated. This election was always a 50/50 situation that would be decided via preference, with Kerry's likeability gap a dooming possibility. He didn't connect with scared white women.

[Thrill]

20. Is anyone suprised?

[DoYouEverWonder]

22. Just found this link to county by county comparatives for FL

if you haven't seen their charts, I think you might find them very helpful.

Below is the info cryingshame posted in the Meeting Room


http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Just for example:

Franklin County. 77.3% of voters registered Dems. Only 15.9% registered Reps. 58.5% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Holmes County. 72.7% of voters registered Dems. Only 21.3% registered Reps. 77% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???

Calhoun County. 82.4% of voters registered Dems. Only 11.9% registered Reps. 63.4% of the votes reported FOR BUSH???


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=111x37739

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Again, those counties need to be compared to 2000 and earlier

Here is a link. A few clicks required to find Florida and the county by county breakdown: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.president.html

Florida is a very complex state, diverse regions and population. Extremely hard to poll or exit poll or characterize. There are DINO regions, like the counties mentioned above, huge Dem regions like Broward and Palm Beach, heavy GOP areas like Naples and the panhandle, and swing sections like Orlando toward the Cape. But if you look county by county, the vast majority are GOP leaning.

No one seems to embrace my comparisons of specific states to the nation in general. Tough shit. It works. Florida always figured to be within a point or two of the national popular vote. It was, roughly 2 points GOP. We had it dead even in 2000 due to GOTV advantage, which they matched this year. Plus the party ID swing, now 37-37 and not 39 -35 our favor like in 2000. That's the real gorilla amidst all this searching and wondering.

[Kerry in 04]

28. kick

[m berst]

37. kick n/t

:kick:

[JCMach1]

38. REPUGs moving to Florida... there are HUGE repug developments

in St. John's, Lake, Duval county and even Flagler (which went for Gore in 2000)

[Awsi Dooger]

39. Thank you, I should have mentioned that

Many GOP developments in western Dade and southwest Broward as well.

That's also an overlooked factor where I live, Las Vegas. The huge new developments in northwest Las Vegas toward Mt Charleston are swamped with newcomer Republicans, decreasing our advantage in Clark County.

[m berst]

40. kick n/t

.

[althecat]

41. kick n/t

[m berst]

42. kick n/t

.