More from the exit polls: 6% of Gore's voters disappeared

[andym]

I've been analyzing the exit poll data for interesting trends.

For example, far more Conservatives than liberals voted (21%
vs 34%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1307051

and there is a good chance that people just voted their
pocketbook as a referendum on the incumbent.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1322827


One interesting observation is that 6% of the people who voted
for Gore, did not vote in this election.  They just
disappeared.

Look here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

                     Bush  Kerry Nader 
Did Not Vote (17%)   45%   54% 	  1%
Gore (37%)           10%   90% 	  0%
Bush (43%)           91%   9% 	  0%
Other (3%)           21%   71% 	  3%

The interesting point is that 43% of the voters who voted for
Bush in 2000 voted in this election.  While only 37% of Gore
voters voted this time!  While the absolute percentages may
change due to the presence of new voters and the death of old
voters.  We can take Bush's 43% as an indication of the
expected number of Gore voters that should have voted.  But
only 36% of Gore's voters appear to have voted according to
the exit poll.  Just this loss could have cost Kerry the
election.\
Did they just stay home?  Why?  very odd indeed.

One factoid according to the 2000 exit polls, Gore had more
voters older than 60 than Bush (51 to 47).  Could that 4%
difference mean that more Gore voters died or were
incapacitated due to age.  Too bad we don't have the
statistics for voters over 70.

[Democat]

1. If your numbers are right, then Democrats lost by not motivating the base

At least not motivating our own base - maybe we motivated theirs. :(

Right?

[andym]

2. Unclear

There were 17% new voters and they came out for Kerry. So at least part of our base was motivated. But perhaps part of the base did not show.

[Democat]

3. But shouldn't we get new voters and old voters too?

Are new voters the "base" as much as proved voting Democrats?

[andym]

4. Unclear

I assume that some of the new voters represent our base, perhaps new to the process. Our old voters who disappeared may be part of our base, or they my be apolitical people who voted for Gore. We can't tell from the info.

[pstokely]

6. one part of the base may have stayed home

and another came out in a high numbers

[andym]

5. Missing 6% --where did it come from geographically?

Is there anywhere that an interactive analysis of the exit poll data is possible. I think it would be most helpful to find out if this 6% was lost across the board or more in particular states like Florida.

[Lex]

7. Just looking and the lines on election day it seems

unlikely to that we had a low voter turnout.

That just makes no sense to me in light of what I observed on the ground and in the press.

[sonicx]

8. No, people lie or forget about who they voted for in previous elections

Whenever you ask the population who they voted for in a past election, the results will ususually skew disproportionately to the winner. Why? cuz people like to say they voted for the winner. or sometimes they forget and say they voted for the winner.

Also, the reason why the exit polls say there were more conservatives is because America DOES have more conservatives.

The breakdown of America is about 20% liberal, 40% moderate, 40% conservative. give or take a few points from each.