Arafat ...when he dies what happens

[greenbriar]

war???

[Fear]

1. US's Syria embassy temporarily closed......connected?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200411/s1235352.htm

[Ladyhawk]

2. I think he goes to hell. When Sharon dies, they'll share a room. nt

[ReadTomPaine]

4. That would make a nice short story.

[andym]

3. most likely outcome-> polarization

The most likely outcome is a greater polarization between the Israelis and the Palestinians. This would occur because the PLO will be weakened and Hamas and their allies will likely become the official leaders of the Palestinians by election.

[friesianrider]

5. Hamas takes over, and everything REALLY hits the fan.

See what's happened the last four years? Magnify it by 50. Then double it. That's what we can look forward to.

[greenbriar]

6. I know and it scares me

so much

[Julien Sorel]

7. War between whom?

The Palestinians have no military.

My guess is Lebanon circa 1980 chaos, with factions in control here and there, and Hamas being first among the factions. This serves Israel's purpose the best, as they can continue to shrug and tell the world they have no peace partner, and Bush will be able to ignore pressure to do something by claiming there's nothing to be done.

But it's a strange region, and the Palestinians have become a wily people after years of occupation and abuse. It's quite possible they will find a way to unify under Hamas and function more or less as a nation. That presents some transient problems to the U.S. and Israel, as if Hamas is able to establish order there, Israel might feel pressured to belly up to the peace table. But the Israelis have been down that route before, and are practiced at talking peace while making quiet war, and the U.S. hardly even pretends to be a fair arbiter any longer; indeed, it is now all but politically impossible for any American president to pretend to treat both sides fairly.

So ultimately, what happens as a result of Arafat's death is nothing, because that's what the people with the power in the region want to happen.