Question for BBV tin foil hatters

[Nederland]

Does any one have a link to the raw exit poll data? Every link to exit poll data I've seen is the same "leaked" crap that Drudge posted in the afternoon. Does anyone have access to the real deal, or do we just have to trust RW bloggers for the data?

[Nederland]

1. Kick

Still waiting

[Nederland]

2. Kick

Put up or shut up folks.

[RBHam]

3. Go here

www.blackboxvoting.org

[Nederland]

4. Its not there either

In any case, I want the full original data, not a stripped down data set. BBV doesn't have access to the original data because it wasn't a subscriber of the NEP. Whatever it has (and I didn't see anything there) is simply stuff they got from an unspecified source.

http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/subscribers.html

[ibegurpard]

5. Let's try an experment:

"Hey all you ostriches. Prove to me why I should trust our election system."
What kind of responses do you think you're going to get?

[Nederland]

7. Exactly

The tin foil hatters have no interest in proving that the election system is trustworthy because they simply assume that it isn't without any proof whatsoever.

[ibegurpard]

13. You SO COMPLETELY missed my point

which was that if you truly want people to engage with you, you take them seriously and don't deride them.

[tommcintyre]

6. "tin foil hatters"? Use a little common sense

http://www.independentmediasource.com/evotingfraud.htm

Read some of the articles here - at least "TECHNOLOGY: COMPUTER SCIENTISTS CAUTIOUS OF E-VOTING".

And then actually "think" about what just happened.

"tin foil hatters"? You are not really helping the situation. It's one thing to disagree on something, but to use such an obviously insulting label. That's a freeper tactic. Shame on you!

[AuntPatsy]

8. I agree with you and I have seen quite a bit of this in the last few

days, I believe some are definately on the wrong board. If you cannot be a part of the solution without creating more confusion than by all means, switch parties, quit trying to change this one in the false hope that the core issues many are going on about are the reasons we lost, I for one have no wish to change my core beliefs that ALL Americans deserve the same freedoms, not just an elite few...

[Nederland]

9. Yes it is shameful

But I'm sorry--I'm frustrated with the fact that people around here are treating this the same way Freepers treat Vince Foster's death.

Its time to put up or shut up. Either they have exit poll data or they don't. The fact that two hours have now gone by and not one of them can show any data speaks for itself.

[Baja Margie]

11. Have you gone over to the Problems With Elections Results

line? It seems to me the people over there are trying to dig up this data, and are coming up with some particularly odd numbers from Ohio's Counties. Perhaps you should go over there and pose this question.

As for myself, I think this election stinks, and your labeling reminds me of exactly how the people who voted for Bush would react. Christ, why don't you dig up the data yourfuckingself? Or at least help out instead of being such a doubting Thomas. I suppose you think Lee Harvey Oswald was the only one who shot JFK. If there's something here, which is now a PROBABILITY, I want to know about it. This isn't hysteria.

You know, everyone down here in Mexico are just shaking their heads and saying, "...well, Margie, that's the way these things work, we know."

By the way, take your tin hat and stick it up your ass.

[Nederland]

18. I've tried to find it

I can't find it anywhere. I assumed that people around here had the full data set because I was seeing bar charts showing the difference between exit poll results and reported results in counties with electronic voting machines. It was only after doing a little analysis of those bar charts that I figured out that the idiot who created them was comparing statewide exit poll numbers with individual county results. Obviously you can't expect that to produce a result that anyone with a brain would consider valid.

But perhaps I expect too much out of DU members.

[SoCalDemocrat]

24. If you want the data, go talk to the AP

They have the data. We used what they publicly provided.

At this point it's likely to take a FOIA lawsuit to get the AP to release their exit poll raw data to the public.

[Nederland]

32. I hope so

I'd love it if they released the raw data. However, the AP is not a government agency and so cannot be petitioned with FOIA requests.

[SoCalDemocrat]

38. Don't count on it

They're entrusted with providing the polling results, and there is a contract in place. I believe it states the data would be made available after the election results were announced.

[SomthingsGotaGive]

36. maybeeee

they are ignoring you and actually trying to catch the criminals rather than answering anonymous posters like yourself DEMANDING proof before you will believe.....fine don't believe just shut up.

[Nederland]

10. Afternoon Kick

still looking.

[Beetwasher]

12. Dick Morris On Exit Polls

http://www.thehill.com/morris/110404.aspx

Dick Morris (asshole that he is) accepts the "faulty" exit poll data that was released via Drudge and other sources as being the actual exit poll data. He comes to the conclusion there was a conspiracy on the part of the exit pollsters who colluded to release bogus data.

If your contention is that the data many here are using is just made up bullshit released by the likes of Drudge and others, you are wrong. There are many other articles that are trying to dismiss that data as faulty, but accept it as the data the was in fact legitimately released by the exit pollsters.

Deal with it. That exit poll data WAS the actual data released by the exit pollsters. Either that data was really fucked up and wrong and their methodology is fundamentally flawed, OR it was taken out of context because it was leaked too early, OR the eventual vote totals were fucked up and wrong.

If in fact the data under question was NOT the legitimate exit poll data, why were the Republicans themselves getting on TV and telling everyone to ignore it?

There's no question there were problems with the exit poll data unless you want to question The Washington Post too:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html?sub=AR

That same "leaked crap" that you refer to IS the data that was legitimately released by the exit pollsters. Deal with it. It may have been taken out of context because it was released early, but was the legit data.

[Nederland]

15. Thank you

That's the first sensible reply I've seen. Given what you've said, I'm willing to accept the exit poll data as genuine.

However, it doesn't provide everything that I'm looking for. The exit polling data that was released (or leaked) early on consisted of a simple list of states with Bush/Kerry percentages. This is not enough to prove fraud for several reasons. One, you need a breakdown by county so you can compare the exit poll taken from a particular county with an electronic voting machine to the released results. If you compare the results of one single county to a statewide exit poll the results are ridiculous (which, BTW, is precisely what some idiot did in the bar graph that is making its rounds here and the Rhandi Rhodes website). Second, full exit poll data is needed to evaluate the sample. If, as is being reported by NBC for example, the exit poll sample consisted of 59% women, we know right off that its junk. You can only tell that if we have the raw exit poll data, not merely a state by state Bush/Kerry breakdown.

Bottom line: we still need the full exit poll data and nobody here seems to have it.

[Beetwasher]

20. Not Many People (If Any) Are Saying This is Enough To Prove Fraud

It is enough to start asking a lot of questions, not the least of which is WHY is it that we CAN'T get any of the raw exit poll data.

You are correct, it hasn't been proferred here, but that's only because, oddly (or not, depending on your POV), it's not being released. And what has been released is very, very troublesome.

It's being used as "proof" of Bush's "mandate" on values and yet no one in the media or anywhere else has provided the actual data. Do you ask the morons running around trumpeting the exit polls as proof of Bush's mandate to produce the data? I didn't think so.

CNN did radically alter the exit poll data that they had on their site and the screen saves were posted here and I'm sure are still available, you should be able to find them in a search. In the 1am hour the exit poll data favored Kerry. The next hour, oddly, it was essentially completely reversed with no explanation. Here's a link to their exit poll data page:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/

I have also seen in articles that the exit poll data is essentially retrofitted after the election to FIT the "actual" results. That too is troublesome and is referenced in the WP article I posted. The link above unfortunately does not give the data needed to do the analysis, and because of the retrofitting, it may not be possible to do it at all. From the WP:

"After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics."

Your "tin foil hat" comment quite frankly is insulting to all of us who do have legitimate questions about these troublesome developments. I suggest you drop that attitude and open your eyes. The evidence is there that SOMETHING is up. The "proof" is not there yet of what exactly it is, but there's enough evidence to ask some hard questions, and not questions to DU'ers to produce the exit poll data. How about asking the exit pollsters to release it? It's not DU's responsibility to release that data.

[Nederland]

31. Well then we agree

There may be something wrong, but we can't prove it yet.

[SoCalDemocrat]

21. Detailed exit poll data was updated all day long

It was available through CNN, MSNBC, CSPAN, etc.

It had complete demographic breakdowns, everything that was in the surveys. It had graphs.

Best of all, on CNN it was right below the actual data coming from the precincts, so it was easily compared and contrasted.

[Nederland]

25. No it doesn't

The data on CNN doesn't have a county by county breakdown. You can't determine if there was fraud involving electonic voting machines unless you have exit poll data from the county in question.

[Milo_Bloom]

14. Randi Rhodes Link

http://www.therandirhodesshow.com/todays_show.html

[Nederland]

16. As I've pointed out before

That bar graph is such a piece of garbage its scary to think that DU is stupid enough to fall for it.

See my post #15 for an explanation of why.

[Cleita]

17. The bar graph was originally posted by a pollster

who is also a DUer. This DUer hasn't been wrong in the years I have been coming here, so why would he be wrong this time?

[LilKim]

19. BTW, where can I get the raw precinct level data on

Florida registered Dems and Reps, and voting system (touch screen, optical scan, etc.) that everyone says they've analyzed?

[Nederland]

22. Here's why

First of all, whether someone is right or wrong has nothing to do with how long they've been at DU. Being right or wrong depends entirely on the facts. In this case, the author of the bar chart uses a faulty methodology. The bar graph compares the single county results to a statewide exit poll. You can't do that because the party breakdown in counties with electronic voting machines is completely different from the statewide breakdown.

[SoCalDemocrat]

23. He's comparing the trend against the state average

There's nothing wrong with it as long as you know it's being compared against state exit polls.

I would LOVE to compare it to the precinct by precinct polls, as soon as the AP releases the data to us we can start doing that.

[Nederland]

27. There is EVERYTHING wrong with it

If the county in question is 70% Republican while the state as a whole is only 50% Republican OF COURSE a comparison of the two is going to look like there was fraud.

[Milo_Bloom]

35. Huh? I don't think you understood the chart.

This doesn't compare county's vs state numbers at all. It compares state exit poll numbers vs state results. The distinction it makes is on whether that state has E-voting or not. In states where there was E-voting, there is a much larger discrepency between the exit polls and the final results than in states without e-voting.

Where in this chart do you see them taking county numbers and comparing them against state results of visa-versa?????

[Nederland]

30. In fact

Here you go (I could only find 2000 registration data):

The registration of each county with electronic voting machines:

County Dem Rep
Auglaize 2,632 7,730
Franklin 63,852 118,973
Knox 3,101 9,587
Lake 18,739 27,635
Mahoning 60,358 17,327
Pickaway 2,873 5,821
Ross 5,169 7,944

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

As you can see, the counties with electronic voting machines are largely republican. Its no wonder that the results their were different from the state as a whole...

[UdoKier]

26. Your question sucks.

People who believe in Area 51 are tin foil hatters.

There is plenty of reason to suspect hacking into these machines, especially since the GOP-owned companies refuse to let the software be audited and resist adding the printers that would make their accuracy verifiable. EVERYTHING ABOUT THEM is fishy.

I agree that Bev & co's "proof" of systematic hacking is insufficient, but that is due to the nature of the machines. We need our vote to be verifiable.

Personally, I think anyone who goeas around slandering the BBV folks (who've don a TON of work on YOUR behalf) like that should have their posts deleted.

I despise the mindset that "If it isn't on CNN, Fox and MSNBC for at least a full news cycle, it's tinfoil hat"

[Awsi Dooger]

39. The research sucks much worse

They ignore logical vote pattern relationship to other states, or the nation itself. They consistently ignore relevant factors, like the state economy in Florida, described as good to excellent by 60% in the exit poll.

I see almost nothing of substance. That chart is a joke. Anyone who believes those are accurate measures of preference in most of those states is indeed a tin foil hatter. 60/40 in PA? 57-41 in NH? Down just 51-49 in NC? Every exit poll is slanted toward Democrats in that sample, other than Illinois which was even. This argument would have much more merit if some of the exit polls in non-electronic states tilted to Bush. I looked at other exit polls on MyDD.com today and the same pro-Kerry tilt thing held up. Obviously the models are simply wrong, not biased just poor. DUers conveniently excluded them from the chart because they are paper ballot states, or ones without electronic voting, yet still slanted heavily toward Kerry. If it doesn't fit, leave it out.

BBV machines need paper trails and full access to code. If this cynical ranting accoplishes that, it was well worth it. It won't prove this election was stolen, because it was not. Every nationwide indication is voters preferred Bush, very slightly and inconceivable, but legit.

[seemslikeadream]

28. Try this - GAO INVESTIGATE THOSE VOTING MACHINES!!!

November 5, 2004

The Honorable David M. Walker

Comptroller General of the United States

U.S. General Accountability Office

441 G Street, NW

Washington, DC 20548

Dear Mr. Walker:

We write with an urgent request that the Government Accountability Office immediately undertake an investigation of the efficacy of voting machines and new technologies used in the 2004 election, how election officials responded to difficulties they encountered and what we can do in the future to improve our election systems and administration.

In particular, we are extremely troubled by the following reports, which we would also request that you review and evaluate for us:

In Columbus, Ohio, an electronic voting system gave President Bush nearly 4,000 extra votes. "Machine Error Gives Bush Extra Ohio Votes," Associated Press, November 5.

An electronic tally of a South Florida gambling ballot initiative failed to record thousands of votes. "South Florida OKs Slot Machines Proposal," Id.

In one North Carolina county, more than 4,500 votes were lost because officials mistakenly believed a computer that stored ballots could hold more data that it did. "Machine Error Gives Bush Extra Ohio Votes," Id.

In San Francisco, a glitch occurred with voting machines software that resulted in some votes being left uncounted. Id.

In Florida, there was a substantial drop off in Democratic votes in proportion to voter registration in counties utilizing optical scan machines that was apparently not present in counties using other mechanisms. http://ustogether.org/election04/florida_vote_patt.htm

The House Judiciary Committee Democratic staff has received numerous reports from Youngstown, Ohio that voters who attempted to cast a vote for John Kerry on electronic voting machines saw that their votes were instead recorded as votes for George W. Bush. In South Florida, Congressman Wexler's staff received numerous reports from voters in Palm Beach, Broward and Dade Counties that they attempted to select John Kerry but George Bush appeared on the screen. CNN has reported that a dozen voters in six states, particularly Democrats in Florida, reported similar problems. This was among over one thousand such problems reported. "Touchscreen Voting Problems Reported," Associated Press, November 5.

Excessively long lines were a frequent problem throughout the nation in Democratic precincts, particularly in Florida and Ohio. In one Ohio voting precinct serving students from Kenyon College, some voters were required to wait more than eight hours to vote. "All Eyes on Ohio," Dan Lothian, CNN, November 3, http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/blog/1...blog/index.htm..

We are literally receiving additional reports every minute and will transmit additional information as it comes available. The essence of democracy is the confidence of the electorate in the accuracy of voting methods and the fairness of voting procedures. In 2000, that confidence suffered terribly, and we fear that such a blow to our democracy may have occurred in 2004.

Thank you for your prompt attention to this inquiry.

Sincerely,
John Conyers, Jr. Jerrold Nadler Robert Wexler

Ranking Member Ranking Member Member of Congress

House Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on the Constitution

cc: Hon. F. James Sensenbrenner

Chairman

[Nederland]

29. More power to them

I hope they find something. My only point here is that DU is jumping to conclusions without any data to back it up.

[seemslikeadream]

33. I guess the ranking members Nadler and Wexler are jumping to conclusions

:shrug:

[Nederland]

37. No

Nadler and Wexler are asking for the facts, just like me.

[Milo_Bloom]

40. The facts are there, do you really not see them????

We have nearly 200,000 votes so far that appeared out of thin air and tens of thousands of votes that seemed to vanish just as fast. (12 counties in Florida and 1 in Ohio <that we know of> had vote tallies GREATER than the number of voters) Several Florida counties had vote tallies up to 12% LOWER than the number of voters, suggesting that 12% of the people decided NOT to vote for President.

Now, these are just the OBVIOUS problems. You take these FACTS and then add in the exit poll data, showing a much closer correlation in paper ballot states, as compared to e-voting states and you have a fairly solid theory based on facts.

The exit polling data suggests that "something is wrong in the e-voting areas" and the actual raw data showing completely messed up vote totals, confirms that "SOMETHING IS WRONG IN THE E-VOTING AREAS".

[hertopos]

34. Please read blackboxvoting.org

They know that they cannot rely on exit poll vs published poll comparizon. They have been working on more technical approach to prove e-voting fraud directly.

I do agree that we have not proved anything...yet. At the same time, nobody is proving otherwise either. I no longer trust the published result as I did before 2000 election.

What makes you believe so sure about Republicans did not committ massive fraud.

Hertopos

[F.Gordon]

41. You're making all kinds of new "friends"

:hi:

The problem with "exit polls" is that they are a floating variable. The problem with the Church of Bev Harris is that they have absolutely no understanding of this.

Both sides (and the press) identify certain precincts as models. (they actually use another "fancy" term for it) These are precincts where the results are "typically" consistent with the results for the entire state. Both sides go after these precincts hard.

Each election cycle the data is reviewed and a new set of model precincts are established. Bev Harris could ask the DNC for this list, but I doubt they'd give it to her.

I spent some time late last night going over all the daily Zogby tracking reports for Florida and Ohio leading up to the election. The aggregate of the data is very consistent with the final election results and select "exit polls".