1 IN 128:THE ODDS EXIT POLLS IN 7 NON-PAPER STATES WOULD ALL GO TO BUSH

[TruthIsAll]

1 IN 128: THE ODDS EXIT POLLS IN 7 NON-PAPER STATES WOULD ALL DEVIATE TO BUSH

ASSUME A FAIR ELECTION:
THE ODDS ARE 1 OF 128 THAT FOR 7 NON-PAPER BALLOT STATES, THE FINAL VOTES WOULD ALL TREND AWAY FROM THE EXIT POLLS TO BUSH. NONE TO KERRY. ALL TO BUSH.

THEY DID JUST THAT.

FORGET ABOUT THE AVERAGE 5% MAGNITUDE OF THE MOVE. I DIDN'T COMPUTE THAT ONE. IF I DID, WOULD YOU BELIEVE ODDS OF 1 OUT OF A BILLION OR MORE?

BUSH DEFIED THE ODDS. VERY LUCKY OR VERY CROOKED.

THE PROBABILITY CALCULATION:
1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/128

[Awsi Dooger]

1. How can you make that statement?

It's the same company running the exit polls across the country. If their model and sampling is flawed, it's likely to be flawed everywhere. In the same direction. Hardly seven independent events.

[LiberteToujours]

2. This needs more information

Why are you calculating the odds as (1/2)^7? That requires that there was a 50% chance of Kerry or Bush winning the exit polls in each state. It doesn't at all account for the fact that Bush was leading in many of these states going into the election. To be honest I am becoming more skeptical of you with every post. Also why must you type in all caps?