An explanation of how Exit Polls can be flipped from actual results

[Walt Starr]

People lie to exit pollers and tell them they voted Kerry instead of the truth.

[cheshire]

1. Yes but they have always been used in past with better accuracy.

[hertopos]

2. Look those talking points are called 'noise'!!

There is a reason why many polling organization has been using exit polls. In fact, it is used to verify published polls in tricky election in the world!!

Yes, things like that happens and those are within the noise. This is how statistics works.

Hertopos

[Hello_Kitty]

38. You know, I don't believe that but I do remember

A couple of right wing windbags on TV mentioning how they thought there was going to be this 'secret Bush vote', where people would tell pollsters they were voting for Kerry but go for * in the privacy of the voting booth. I know that douchebag actor Ron Silver was one of them. I remember thinking that it would be pretty pathetic of someone to lie about who they'd vote for. If you're ashamed of your choice, you probably shouldn't be making it, right? Now that I think about it they were saying it so that the steal would be more plausible.

Sorry, but people who'd lie to a pollster like that wouldn't wait 10 hours in the rain. Doesn't figure into that type of personality makeup. Just my sense of it.

[Bonobo]

3. Walt, your posts are all over the place.

And they mostly don't make sense.

[high density]

4. Bushbots lying to say they voted for Kerry?

For some reason I don't think they could bring themselves to say something like that.

[txindy]

5. You're awfully invested in the polls being wrong

I don't get it. You post all over the board about how we're delusional. We get it. You don't agree. Why go on about it? It makes no sense.

[a new day]

6. The exit polls are accurate

That is why the big push to discredit them. They are the only guage I know of that checks for fraud. If the news orgainizations won't support them in the future, they should be supported by the voters as a defense.

[KittyWampus]

7. Thus A Margin Of Error. OCCAM'S RAZOR

Exit polls are valid in every country except the United States?

Exit polls have been valid in the United States but for some mysterious reason suddenly became invalid in 2000?

Exit polls are accurate in precincts where there is e-voting with a paper trail but inaccurate only in precincts where there is NO paper trail? (That correlation has already been proven, by the way.)

Post Script: Walt, your crediblity is closing in on zero at this point.

[mtnsnake]

8. C'mon, he's just offering it as one possible explanation.

It's not like he said he believes that's what happened.

[Walt Starr]

9. It's about as valid as anything else I've seen presented to date

But hey, it deserves investigation. does anybody know if Florida and Ohio talk radio hosts were pushing Bushbots to lie to exit pollers?

:shrug:

[Nederland]

84. Wrong

The margin of error is caused by the fact that the sample size is smaller than the total voting population. In fact, the MOE assumes that people are telling the truth. If they don't, the MOE will not be accurate.

I'd suggest you learn a little bit about statistics and you won't end up posting such nonsense.

[noamnety]

10. I believe you

Sure.

Now if you could just explain why they told the truth to the pollsters in some states and overwhelmingly lied in others, that would be great.

[phish420]

12. Yeah, Id like to hear that one too...

...then Ill shut up (maybe)

[bagnana]

74. why was Kerry up by 3 pts. nationwide in 4pm poll?

That doesn't make sense?

[phish420]

11. Why were exit polls accurate until 2000?

Why is it that the networks were able to determine results from exit polls with such accuracy from the 50's until 2000 with no problems until FL in 2000 sowed abnormailities, then every state with electronic voting shows abnormalities in 2004 (and only those with electronic voting). This defies logic.

[tjdee]

13. No one has addressed this, and that is the big question, isn't it.

And two more.

Why were the exit polls accurate EXCEPT FOR Florida and Ohio (was there a third?)?

Why haven't any glitches been found where KERRY benefitted?

[Awsi Dooger]

17. They WERE accurate?

News to me. That ballyhoed exit poll chart going around DU has Kerry leading PA 60/40 and NJ 57/41. Those are comically flawed, by much greater disparity than the FL or OH numbers. It has Kerry only down 51-49 in NC, another beauty. If anyone is optimistic enough to believe those numbers are accurate reflections of those states, I can probably find you a bargain on the Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl.

[bloom]

14. That sounds like the Republican line

Have you looked at any of the statistics people around here are presenting yet?

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

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[redherring]

16. Hey, read this piece by Dick Morris

Even this guy suspects foul play:
http://www.hillnews.com/morris/110404.aspx

[Bush was AWOL]

72. Interesting that Morris of all people is on this

I thought they won fair until tonight. Something is up. Exit polls were always right until 2000. Even if we can't get Kerry into the White House we must point out that the man in there is not a legitimately elected president. We must show that he's a fraud himself that was never elected by the people of his country.

[Starlight]

18. Or maybe the pollsters were dyslexic

and they recorded the responses incorrectly. :eyes:

[Amaya]

19. Walt, you seem to be having an identity crisis

[noamnety]

26. I think he's playing devil's advocate (nt)

[Mandate My Ass]

20. Cite please.

Also, why?

[Walt Starr]

43. Just presenting a theory

like everybody else who makes claims of fraud.

[RapidCreek]

85. That's a real smart theory Walt

Republicans lied about who they voted for to cast a shadow of election fraud on their candidate. Yep that makes sense to me! Brilliant.


RC

[goclark]

21. Is this DU or FR? I must have hit the wrong key on my computer

I'll come back when more sanity is available.

Know thy enemy-it is Bush.

Please folks be supportive of efforts to get to the bottom of this FRAUD mess.

What is the problem!

[Amaya]

24. No,

we must focus on how Dems need to be more like Rethugs to win.

Right, Walt?

[Walt Starr]

32. Nope, we don't have to be more like Republicans

In fact, I'd say on nearly all issues we could move to the left of the position presented by Kerry this year easily and still win by landslides.

The key is utilizing the right language to get a seat at the table of the debate.

I will say, in my humble opinion, there is a single issue we should move to the identical position held by the Republicans and that is gun control, but other than that, we can be more to the left than we've ever been if we become effective in the way we communicate the ideas.

Overall, the Democratic Party holds the values of the American public moreso that the Republicans. We just tend to talk over people or down to people instead of TO people. We get too impressed with our own intellectual prowess and it pisses off Joe Sixpack.

[Straight Shooter]

22. Yes, and people have lied about their votes forever and ever

This is why, until this election, exit polls were considered reliable.

I've also heard that virgins, polled in junior high, are telling pollers that they are notorious whores.

[AP]

23. If so many voters knew to do that, then we'd know they did that.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

25. BINGO

AP hit the nail on the head.

Oh yes, THAT many people would be able to keep the Great Secret that "We're All Going to Lie and Say We Voted for Kerry."

Right. Those fuckers can't even manage to send their campaign strategy emails to the right place (georgebush.com vs. georgebush.org).

But we're supposed to believe there was this widespread effort to lie to exit pollsters in order to what?

Walt, I'm worried about you. Seriously.

[driver8]

28. They couldn't keep it quiet

No way these idiots could pull off something like that and keep it quiet...no way!

The results from Florida and the statistics I have seen convince me that this election was stolen -- Bush may have God speaking to him, but he isn't that lucky!!

I cannot believe I have to watch that smug idiot for four more years...God help us!

[newyawker99]

81. Hi driver8!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[hexola]

27. It's simple...More Kerry supporters voted early in the day...

Ya know...we were anxious! I couldn't wait to get down there!

That anxiety created a morning bump in the exits..

[the_outsider]

29. I agree. All the democrats I know voted the first thing. We couldn't wait

I read somewhere that the polls conducted by the same firms later in the day were closer to the final results.

Also I have looked at Florida data in some detail and nothing in the numbers stands out and suggests a fraud. Actually it's remarkably consistent - both internally and also with national average. It's not impossible to write a program which will maintain these consistencies and will still move votes from Kerry to *, but it seems far-fetched.

Kerry's votes are heavily concentrated in a very few large counties (cities) and not uniformly distributed all over Florida. I think it's not very hard to get a bad sample on the exit polls in Florida (same in most of the other states). We should at least try to get the internals of the exit polls before claiming fraud based on them.

[Name removed]

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[the_outsider]

36. I first saw the exit polls breaking out in atrios

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2004_10_31_atrios_archive.html

If you click on this link and scroll down, you will find two results (2:32 pm and 4:54 pm). The first one has a 4 point gap in Ohio and 3 point gap in Florida. The second one has a 1 point lead in both states. So the leads were already narrowing. The Florida results are still a bit off from the final results, but it was still a few hours away from the end of polling. In any case, why are we going by the first poll and not the second exit poll? I will try to find out where I read about the final exit poll which was even closer to the final result.


The first poll also shows a 20-point lead in Pa which has to be incorrect. Of course you can claim that they made up the Pa numbers just to discredit the authentic Fl and Oh numbers.

Fraud is a strong claim. We need the exit poll internals before claiming fraud without any other evidence.

[bearfartinthewoods]

77. I live in PA

I knew instantly that there was somethig very screwy about the exit polls when I saw those numbers. The polling company said they made a mistake and over sampled women plus I think it's true that we voted earlier. I know I was there when they opened the doors.

[bobbyboucher]

90. We?

Don't kid yourself.

[Walt Starr]

33. See, now there's a key to this entire debate!

I have yet to see anybody publish the raw data of the exit polls. Everybody has posted the shit the media pushed (think Drudge).

Those are post analytical numbers and they are no better than the model used to pump them out. We need the actual raw data from the company that actually did the exit polling.

[Straight Shooter]

57. That's weird. All the Dems I know voted later in the day

Working people, ya know.

[Julien Sorel]

68. It's not so simple.

Exit polls are taken three times a day, and weighted. The mid-day polls also showed Kerry winning.

[Beetwasher]

31. That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard; THEY'VE NEVER DONE IT BEFORE!!

Why the fuck would it happen all of a sudden when that's never happened before? So many were in on the conspiracy to LIE to pollsters to creat a swing of 4-5%??? Sorry, that's idiotic.

[Walt Starr]

34. Note I said "AN" explanation

I did not claim it is "THE" explanation, unlike those who push the fraud theories.

[Eric J in MN]

35. Why would someone lie about that? nt

nt

[Walt Starr]

37. Well, back in '92 I was forced to listen to Limbaugh daily at my job

HE told his mind numbed robots to always lie to pollsters, ESPECIALLY if exit polled.

Does anybody have any transcripts of the local rightwing nutballs in the areas where the data is claimed to be in dispute?

[Beetwasher]

40. Well, There Goes Your Theory

Because the exit polls were fine all through the 90's and only started going whacky when Diebold entered the scene.

[Walt Starr]

44. Look at limbaugh's audience in '92

Got any transcripts from radio talk shows leading up to the elction this year?

OOPS, must be in the same place they keep the raw exit poll data that not a single person has presented.

[Beetwasher]

45. Odd That

The raw exit poll data ain't available anywhere. Why don't YOU produce it? It would back up your nonsense just as well...

It's YOUR theory. YOU produce the radio transcripts, whatever the fuck that would do. YOU claimed Rush has been exhorting his listeners to do this since '92, not me. As far as I know, your claim is bullshit to begin with.

[Walt Starr]

47. I'm not the one making claims of fraud

If you're going to make a claim of fraud based upon circumstantial evidencec, you'd better have the circumstantial evidence you;re basing the claim upon.

In logical discourse, the claimant with the initial positive assertion is under the burden of proof, ergo, those who make the claim of fraud are under the obligation to present the evidence supporting the allegation.

Not a single person making these claims of fraud has presented that circumstantial evidence. They've presented second and mostly third hand data.

[Name removed]

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[Walt Starr]

52. You're using what you;ve got but you don't have the actual data

Get the actual data. You;re working off abstracted data without a clue as to the assumptions that went into the model! Until you get the raw data, you're a conspiracy theorist to the media and your story goes nowhere.

Believe me, I've learned the hard facts about getting all your data points and facts together if you want a story to go to press, especially if you are making serious charges like fraud!

Seek ther real data, if the analysis holds you've got a story. If the analytical model used to abstract the data was flawed, you're back to square one.

[Name removed]

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[Walt Starr]

58. In logical discourse, the inital positive claimant is under the burden of

proof.

You make the claim of fraud, not I.

You are under the burden of proof, not I. All I did was to merely point out you do not even have the data you claim to have.

It's your obligation to present the data, not mine. Until you do present the data, your allegations remain nothing more than unsubstantiated allegations.

Substantiate or remain a conspiracy theorist.

[Beetwasher]

61. Umm, The Post Is YOUR CLAIM

You provide proof of all these liars.

I have exit poll data that is legit and shows only a few states that were way off. You have only your big mouth and nothing else.

[Walt Starr]

64. So now you claim you have the raw data?

Dude, you're going around in circles! Now you're really a conspiracy theorist!

I presented a theory and made no claims as to the validity of the theory, merely that it is an explanation that *can* explain it.

The point was simple, it's a theory JUST LIKE THE THEORIES OF FRAUD!

Your theory is no more substantiated than mine, ergo, the media laughs at you as yet another conspiracy theorist.

[Beetwasher]

65. I Have The WP

That has a story about the Exit Polls. Read it. It makes you look stupid, so I understand why you don't. They back up the contention that the "flawed" data was the legit data.

Still waiting for you to put up. Where's proof of all these liars? It's your idiotic claim.

[Eric J in MN]

66. He told them to lie to accomplish what? nt

nt

[Name removed]

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[Walt Starr]

41. No, actually I'm not

All that's required is a single radio host. One radio host convinces his listeners todo thi and you're done. No conspiracy is required because there is no two way interaction in the action. Message sent, end user accepts mission and away we go.

It's certainly AS plausible as the stuff I've seen bantied about on DU claiming fraud.

[Beetwasher]

42. No, It's Not

The exit polls were fine all through the 90's and only went whacky recently.

[Walt Starr]

46. That tends to suggest flawed methodologies

that have not kept up with the times.

Bascially, before any of these crap models, charts, and the analysis will mean dick, you MUST OBTAIN THE RAW DATA FROM THE COMPANY THAT PERFORMED THE FUCKING POLL!!!!!

The one thing that has been lacking from day one of this argument has been the actual exit poll data. Not a single person who claims fruad has presented it. Not one. They've presented the bullshit numbers the media went with and they don't even have a clue what the model was to abstract the data into its final form!

[Name removed]

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[Walt Starr]

53. If you don't get the real data, your story is never anything more than

tinfoilhat stuff.

Get your ducks in a row! Take it from somebody who experienced this "ducks in a row" shit first hand, GET THE REAL DATA AND GET THE ANALYTICAL MODEL USED FOR THE ABSTRACT PRESENTED BY THE MEDIA!!!!

[Name removed]

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[Walt Starr]

59. Okay, so you have now admitted you do not have anything to

substantiate your claims of fraud.

Case closed, there was no fraud.

I guess you'd better find that data, huh?

[Beetwasher]

60. Uhh, NO

I have the fact that the exit polls were off only in a handful of states and dead on everywhere else.

[Walt Starr]

62. No, you don't. You have second and third hand accounts

of the exit polls. Do you even know if the second or third hand account of the exit poll data applied a model to abstract the data? If not, you'd better find out.

Get the raw data. Back up your claims. If you don't, you have nothing.

[Name removed]

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[Nederland]

88. Agreed

I've been asking for the raw data for days. People keep saying that all we need in the simple Kerry/Bush percentiles that got leaked to the press. Its bullshit. Until you get the raw data you can't prove a thing.

[LisaL]

49. I am not sure what your problem is.

You might not be concerned that republicans who made machines that count our votes promise to deliver electoral votes to Bush.
Well, other people are.
:eyes:
I see you don't provide any prove for your explanation either, yet demand it from everybody else. People in Ukraine have more sense than we are!

[EndElectoral]

50. Walt, I respect your posts, but your argument has not been born out

historically? Why in this election would people decide to lie more in exit polls so dramatically, particularly in non-paper ballot states?

I agree it is going to be difficult, but these machines (without paper trails) represent the future of elections. If in fact there is a disconnect (as between the exit polls and the alleged votes), then isn't it paramount to ask registered voters NOW who they voted for in suspect counties, and NH for example.

The question comes then:

What IF say in Dixie County, FL it is revealed via canvassing that there is a large discrepancy between reported votes and door to door canvassing?

What IF in NH it is revealed that the Exit Polls are more in line with the actual vote than currently?

We can stick our heads in the sand, and not whine, but when this is going to be the future of voting, the search for possible fraud is not only necessary, it is patriotic to do so.

[WillyT]

56. Have You Taken The Time To Read Will Pitt's Latest Article ???

Link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1338979

:shrug:

[Spazito]

67. I think it is time for those who 'poo poo' the 'anomalies' reported to..

provide REAL proof rather than 'maybe this' or 'maybe that' suppositions. It is becoming increasingly interesting to read the threads that want REAL proof yet also loudly proclaim that looking for proof is a fools errand. Why the fear of an investigation? It is not as if the DU member has to be the one to stand before the court of law providing the proof, the DU member has only to stand strong demanding such an investigation. The results will stand for themselves given a fair, independent and honest investigation. There was election fraud or there was not, period.

[YouLiedTheyDied]

69. Oh for crimminey's sake

The exit polls were released from a batch of early results done during a time period when the majority of the voters are democratic. They didn't include any vote totals after lunch time and after work when most thugs vote. The early numbers contain an overwhelming number of women voters and seniors. In other words, they oversampled our base. We keep pushing theories like this and we're going to be a laughing stock and the thugs will just dig in deeper!

[Bridget Burke]

79. I voted late....after I got off work.

And I voted for Kerry.

What published studies back up your belief that early voters are democratic? Wouldn't the early voters be housewives & retirees?

[bobbyboucher]

91. You were the only one Bridget, the rest were swarms of Repugs,

voting en masse after supper.

Don't buy into that bullshit, there is no precedent and there is not even a shred of evidence to suggest it.

This is all an exercise in division. Divide the truth seekers with suppositions and see if they can ever come up with the facts. We will face tremendous ridicule, no doubt, but what is at stake is more huge than enyone can imagine. If we don't get those machines, Democracy might already be dead.

[Tweed]

70. Exit Polls are used in 3RD WORLD COUNTRIES to prevent fraud

[Bush was AWOL]

71. What's the point of that

Bush voters always seemed more proud and outspoken of their delusional support for him than Kerry supporters in my experience.

I call bullshit on this lame excuse for pardoning the blatent fraud in Florida in Ohio.

Something hasn't added up with the exit polls and the actual results in Florida ironically since Jeb has been Gov.

[library_max]

73. Oh come on.

After 2000, everybody, especially everybody in a battleground state, knew that perception was 99% of the game. If the results were close, the crucial thing was to have your candidate look like he won. For that reason, everyone would have a strong disincentive to lie to exit pollers. Why would Bush voters tell pollers they voted for Kerry? That just endangers Bush's victory. If they didn't want him to win, why did they vote for him? This makes no sense, with all due respect.

[Bucky]

75. I don't think people get your sense of humor

Get in line

[Toucano]

76. Hmmm. Is that moral? n/t

[0007]

78. Have we been flimflammed or are we being flimflammed now?

If folks weren't telling the truth on being ask questions after they voted. Why? Did the church tell these folks to avoid the media? Was this another Karl Rove plot?

Exit polls have always worked before, why not now?

[Bridget Burke]

80. Then, where do you get the idea that we must abandon all gun control?

Was that issue mentioned in exit polls? Oh, but they can't be trusted.

Or did you just pull it out of your--mind?

[robbedvoter]

82. Or, 90,000 hermaphrodites showed up in Ohio by surprise

as Kerry was leading among men & women and there were 90,000 more votes than voters.
Lie? Yup. Poow wittle rednecks ascared of big bad librul pollsters were hiding their allegiance to W for fear of being....clobbered? challenged? arrested?

[in_cog_ni_to]

83. Just so happens that this was the first time in history that exit polls

weren't accurate? Give me a fucking break. They stole the damn election. Period.

[robbedvoter]

89. Happened in 2000 - Florida only. In 2002 - they trashed them.

Other than that - always accurate.

[rinsd]

86. Possible....

Maybe people were embarrassed to admit they voted for Bush?

From the description of the sample size it would only take a handful to shake it a couple of points.

But would it account for variances on certain machines?

[idiosyncratic]

87. Yeah, RIGHT!!

Don't fall for those Right Wing talking points.

That would be quite a conspiracy for all Repub voters to tell pollsters they voted for Kerry. Did your Repub associates get that memo? :think: