A MAJOR Point On The EXIT POLLS and METHODOLOGY

[Beetwasher]

First of all, the "flawed" exit poll data that was released and that is at the heart of the exit poll questions has been accepted as the legit exit poll data by a variety of sources including the WP and the asshole Dick Morris. This is the data that was posted on CNN up until around 1am. Then an hour later it was changed to the retrofitted data. The screen shots are available here on DU. If anyone has them handy, please post them in this thread.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html?sub=AR

"After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics."

Read the asshole Dick Morris:

http://www.thehill.com/morris/110404.aspx

Deal with it. The "flawed" data is legit. Even Dick Morris knows it was legit and claims a consipiracy on the part of the exit pollster. This strains credulity because one would have to believe that CBS and Fox would have to be in on it. Utterly ridiculous, but there you are.

Now, as far as the raw data, I have not been able to find it anywhere. The closest I've come is CNN's website which has the FINAL exit poll data. Unfortunately, it's not dependable because it's retrofitted. See the WP article and quote above.

The main point however is that the methodology of the exit polls is IRRELEVANT. Either the methodology is BAD and the exit polls would be fucked up EVERYWHERE, which is not the case, or something else is going on.

On a side note, I have tried and tried to find a source for all the raw exit poll data and can't find one. The only data I've found is on CNN and that's the final, retrofitted stuff that is useless.

So once and for all, let's put this bullshit question to rest about the exit poll data. The flawed data was legit. The data posted on CNN has been retrofitted. The raw data, to my knowledge is ODDLY not available anywhere and if the methodology is bad, then it would be bad EVERYWHERE, not just in important swing states. End of story.

[Walt Starr]

1. You're drawing conclusions based upon flawed assumptions

I suggest you find the real data.

[Beetwasher]

2. So, Help Me Out, Where Is It Einstein?

Is the real data the data that was posted on CNN up until 1am? That's the data I'm using in my assumption and it's the same data that everyone's been using and that was leaked to Drudge etc. It was legit and accepted as such by the WP etc. Everyone except you apparently knows that data was legit.

"On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening."

Only a moron would still claim that the early exit poll data that had Kerry leading is not legit after reading these accounts.

[KittyWampus]

3. Flawed Assumptions Would Be That Exit Polls Are Invalid In Only ONE

country in the world- the United States.

And that US exit polls can suddenly become invalid since the year 2000.

How many times do you have to be told that exit polls are used around the globe to validate vote tallies?

If exit polls and vote tallies are in conflict it is the VOTE TALLY that is in question.

Conflicting exit polls are a flashing red light indicating SOMETHING is wrong.

They are a sympton that calls for x-rays and exploratory surgery to determine what the disease is.

[Beetwasher]

4. It's Even Worse. It's Only SOME States In One Country

The methodology used was the same everywhere in the country. The polls were only "off" in important swing states. They were fine in NY for example.

[Walt Starr]

5. The flawed assumption is that CNN modeled the data accurately

The real data sits with the company hired by the emedia to perform the exit polls.

To obtain it, you will have to pay for it.

[Beetwasher]

6. Did You Read The WP Article?

If you did and you're still staying that then you are beyond help. No on is disputing the leigtimacy of the early exit poll data. No one except you. That was the data CNN was given by the exit pollster and it was legit and it changed drastically from one hour to the next. It was retrofitted. Read the WP article before you talk nonsense.

"On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening."

It says nothing about CNN modeling the data incorectly. There's no explanation whatsoever for Kerry's lead in the exit polls. The drastic reversal is explained by RETROFITTING the data.