Trippi: Expect a wave of retiring Democratic politicians.

[Julien Sorel]

Expect a big wave of Democratic retirements from Congress in the next couple of years, as veterans who've been holding on in hopes of regaining majority power give up. Many of these Democrats have been using their personal popularity (and powers of incumbency) to win in Republican areas. When they leave, their seats will flip. The GOPs could attain 60 votes in the Senate and maybe 30 more seats in the House.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2109381/

As if there weren't problems enough.

Maybe if the party moves left, we can save some of those seats in Republican areas. :eyes:

[Forever Free]

1. We need a new fresh younger generation of Congressional leaders

with a clear, concise, strong, and UNEQUIVOCATING progesssive message. Gone should be the times of centrist compromise and appeasement. We are the opposition party now, we need to start acting like one. If we don't, then its the American people that will suffer, not the politicians.

[pa28]

2. Fine. Let the Republicans take the keys to the car and drive.

We'll either have the dictatorship we so richly deserve or a massive backlash.

[lefthandedskyhook]

24. The world will suffer either way

I have no doubt that the thugs will eventually self destruct. Their fall will almost certainly be ugly, slow, and painful. The chance of a peaceful political solution has practically disappeared.

Anybody got a good lemonade recipe?

[JI7]

3. i heard one of the reasons Bob Kerrey left a few years ago

was because he was tired of being in the Senate as a minority party member. but like hollings and breaux he was a safe democratic seat for us in a solid republican state.

i think for the house seats what democrats need to do is start at very local levels and build up a strong relationship with constituents to try to get support in future house races. i can't really think of any other way. actually it doesn't even have to be local elections, but anything where they can form a good relationship with the people in certain district. tom daschle did this in his state which allowed him to do better than most democrats would in south dakota even though he ended up losing last week. but his races have always been close. that's actually a good thing for democrats in a state like south dakota.

for the senate i have hopes in states like colorado, arizona,and some other states where they usually vote republican in presidential races but the democrats have had some successes in senate and governor's races.

[Mike L]

38. I have no respect for Dems who retire in Republican areas.

Some retire because they think they will be beaten. They should stay until they become senile like Strom Thurmond.

[DELUSIONAL]

4. Pensions of already retired may be terminated by companies

and perhaps the government will get out of the pension insurance business and the social security business THEN and only THEN will people start voting their personal interest.

But then -- our side already won -- our side don't count the votes in the swing states. It is really telling when the chairman for the re-election of bushie IS also in control of counting the vote -- and in charge of voter registrations (in other words -- every way possible to block the vote. Instead of rock the vote the GOPig are the block the vote party.)

Perhaps Democrats need to focus on getting Democrats elected to Secretary of State positions in ALL 50 states Plus on the county and/or city level -- so that our side counts the vote.

The more people vote their own interests -- pensions, health care, social security -- and on a local level -- roads etc -- AND the democrats can make sure that votes are counted and every vote counts -- then we have a better shot at the Federal offices.

The democrats need to dump the leadership of the DNC -- and start with fresh leadership who are willing to listen to grass root democrats.

Either that or just by-pass the DNC and form another more progressive PDNC -- progressive Democratic Committee.

[Lexingtonian]

5. well, duuuh

Mickey Kaus quotes Joe Trippi- on the obvious, and the obviously wrong, at the same time. We probably only need Tom Friedman to complete the clusterf#$&.

I think Joe T has had his fifteen minutes. But no one's told him so just yet.

Yes, there are ~20-25 Blue Dogs left. Not 30. And there are ~5 unsafe Democrats who are Senators in Red States.

Where Trippi is wrong is the assumption that the Republicans will be able to maintain the advantage(s) they have now for another six to eight years. There are enough Republicans who are crapping out as is to roughly balance things. And the idea that Democrats can get anywhere in the House or Senate as long as Blue Dogs provide the margin of majority- that was disproven fifteen years ago. Not to kick them off the ship, but they will never fail to disappoint.

Trippi is one of the consultants who will never mentally get out of the Nineties. Time to retire from the political operative gig, Joe.

[Julien Sorel]

6. It isn't just red states.

There are Republican enclaves in the bluest of states, just as there are Democratic enclaves in Mississippi. I do think Trippi is engaging in some chicken littling here, but at the same time, if he's hearing that a fair number of Dems are considering retiring it isn't a good thing, no matter how you look at it.

[Lexingtonian]

7. That's all true

but I drew the Red/Blue state distinction only for Senators.

It would be nice to know what kind of numbers Trippi is talking about. And a serious Democratic groundswell during '05 and '06 could have a remarkable effect of having such talk vanish utterly.

[Mike L]

39. I don't think Dems in halfway reasonable areas should change their

positions, but in the DEEP South, it's either start running Dems who are conservative on social issues or close up shop.

[Zhade]

8. "Maybe if the party moves left..."

You finally get it!

[Guaranteed]

9. It's not about left or right. It's about leadership.

It's about finding strong principles, sticking to them. It's about beating the shit out of Republicans every time they do something stupid. Yeah, it's hard work, but it has to be done.

[Julien Sorel]

10. What's a strong principle?

[Guaranteed]

11. Here's one, just as an example:

We don't attack countries that haven't attacked, or even THREATENED, for that matter, us.

[Julien Sorel]

13. So that should be a plank in the Democratic platform?

And that's going to win votes?

[Guaranteed]

21. That's called principled leadership. And it wins votes. nt

[NewJeffCT]

12. good idea, but

We also need to work on our infrastructure. Since the 70s, the Republicans have been building things up from the local level - town councils & school boards first, then state legislatures, then Congress, then the Senate, and now President.

Granted, they've had a massive amount of funding from Scaife, Walton, Coors, Murdock, Olin, Bradley, etc.

[TexasSissy]

45. I agree. It's not JUST the position taken, but the leadership skills of

the person. The Dem. Party is lacking in leadership - moderate, left, or far left.

We need strong leaders in the Party, whatever their leanings. To me, that's the most important thing.

[TomClash]

14. Flip the logic

Accept the premise for Repukes and Collins, Snowe, Chaffee will be going soon.

[Julien Sorel]

15. They aren't retiring, whereas the Dems are, according to Trippi.

That's the problem. Incumbents generally stay in office, unless they do something stupid, or get swept away by a national movement.

[TomClash]

16. I see the point

but if I were these three I would start to worry

[Freddie Stubbs]

27. Why would they leave?

They can enjoy being in the majority and everything that goes with it (can serve as committee chairmen, bills more likely to pass). The only thing worse than being in the minority is being in the minority for the foreseeable future (especially for those who were around for the good old days before '94.

[TomClash]

28. they won't leave but they might lose their seats

First up - Snowe and Chaffee in 06

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. Perhaps, but they do a good job being moderates

Which means they won't be push-overs.

[TomClash]

30. But they are the best targets

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. That is a very sad commentary

[Mike L]

40. They tried to get Arlen Specter and it didn't work.

Of course, if they had-- a moderate Dem would have taken his old seat.

[DeepModem Mom]

17. This enrages me -- these people don't get it, the death struggle we're in

Republican incumbents stay in office on their death beds to keep an (R) in office, and our people are tired of being in a minority??? Bob Graham lost a seat in Florida, even Breaux in La., others -- don't they see that they endanger the country by giving the Republican Right absolute power? The rest of us out here may as well give up, I guess. The only shred of power left is the power of Senate filibuster, and I have no doubt the "nuclear option" will eliminate that. It's very hard not to give up all hope, and admit that our country has been delivered into the hands of a clever, nefarious political faction on the extreme Right, and we have lost it, maybe forever.

[Julien Sorel]

18. Believe me when I say,

I feel your pain.

[DeepModem Mom]

20. Ah, that's sweet, JS --

:)

[xchrom]

19. Maybe if the party moves left,

Maybe if the party moves left,
no but they can if the dems become more republican:eyes:

[American Tragedy]

22. On what basis does he conclude this?

It seems pretty presumptuous to claim that a significant number of Democratic Senators and Congressmen are poised to leave because they hate so much being the minority. What evidence is there to suggest that this attitude exists?

I would think that most of them would see this as the worst possible time to exit.

[Julien Sorel]

26. I assume he has contacts and the like.

Politicians are a little bit different than, for example, Supreme Court justices. The SC justices could be making a fortune in private practice -- they really do serve out of a belief in the public good. So they will hang on to their jobs because of ideological reasons, because that's what led them to the Supreme Court in the first place.

Politicians, it seems to me, are much more self interested. So I could see leaving for greener pastures, if the alternative is to be a part of an essentially powerless minority.

[unfrigginreal]

23. Maybe if the party doesn't change a thing,

we'll hold on to all of those seats. :eyes:

[Julien Sorel]

25. So the choice is to move left, or not change a thing?

:eyes:

[billyskank]

32. Do you believe a move rightwards is required?

[unfrigginreal]

35. Well, offer an alternative. Your constant whining about those that

want the party to move left doesn't say anything about what you think the party *should* do. My point is, at least the folks pushing for a move to the left want to try something different. Those that bitch about it without offering any solutions of their own should keep their rolling eyes to themselves.

[Julien Sorel]

37. "Trying something different" for its own sake is foolish.

Leftist politicians have never fared well in this country -- that is a simple fact. It is a particularly salient fact given that this is probably the most conservative the country has ever been. So those advocating a move to the left, and who justify it on the grounds that they are "doing something," are ignoring a lot of history that suggests what they are doing will lose. Big.

As for my proposal, the Democrats have to start locally and work up, paying attention to regional and national sensibilities. It seems rather common sensical, but people here can't seem to get it. So Tom Daschle and John Breaux and Harry Reid et al are constantly savaged for being "pink tu tu Dems," and "DINOs" and the like, when they are actually about as liberal as they can possibly be and still win. Pragmatism can work.

Nationally, we are positioned well on the issues -- I don't see much room for gain by moving to the right. But we simply have to do a better job of picking candidates. No more Goddamned East Coast liberals: Hillary that means YOU. And we support them when they aren't ideologically pure. The Republicans backed Nixon to the hilt, because they were tired of losing. They backed Eisenhower, because they were tired of losing. These guys were both moderate as hell, and neither was particularly exciting to the conservatives. But they won.


Our surrogates suck ass and seem to like the taste. They are grossly inept, and consistently under prepared. The DNC has got to get them able to spout a unified message backed with facts every time they go on one of those talking head shows. This is absolutely basic, and a huge, and inexcusable, failing of the DNC.

The DNC needs to re-organize itself, and put a focus on the media.

The Democrats have got to shed their image of being unreliable on national security. The Republicans probably gain a point or two in every national election just because people are willing to trust them, not us, on national security issues. Of course, that is particularly critical now, and it's what beat Kerry.

Gun control is a loser, and Democrats need to stop talking about it entirely. I believe the plank has been taken out of the platform, but Democrats are still being portrayed as anti-gun.



None of these things is purely ideological in nature, but nuts and bolts stuff. Compared to the Republicans, the Democrats are disorganized, fractious, and suffer from a poor public image that has little to do with ideology. Moving left isn't going to fix any of that stuff.

[Cheswick2.0]

33. maybe we can just move right and nominate actual republicans

then we can win.

[Cheswick2.0]

34. maybe we can just move right and nominate actual republicans

then we can win.

[Mike L]

36. Running moderately conservative Dem candidates in these areas is the

only way we can even hope to retain these seats. Our candidates must reflect the cultural views of those voters. I'm glad Trippi is smart enough to realize the problem.

[xequals]

41. Dems aren't even seen as an option by a huge chunk of voters.

Liberalism/leftism is the main reason.

Even though many voters hate the GOP, they simply hate the Dems more on most issues, especially taxes, security and integrity. Dems aren't seen for really believing in anything, and when they are, it's liberalism - which is even worse. America is simply not a left wing country - never was and never will be, IMO. We are an individualist, capitalist, "can do" society that respects hard work. But we aren't conservative either, in terms of cultural and religous values, despite the religious right's rise to power. America has always been a libertarian nation, and I believe will return to that one day. It's only a matter of which party moves in that direction first. For me, the battle of the future is less about conservative and liberal (both failed ideologies more resembling pseudoscience than anything grounded in truth and facts), but about authoritarian vs libertarian.

Both major parties are moving in very authoritarian directions, and that's what worries me (and I suspect many others) most about this country. At one time Dems could be counted on to protect indivdual freedoms and Repubs could be counted on to protect economic freedoms. No more. Dems have moved toward more of a socialist "nanny state" position, and Repubs toward a theocratic fascist position.

[bobbyboucher]

42. Well let's just become Republicans, it's over. Who's with me?

If not, let's at least run someone like Joe Lieberman, at least he is a real Democrat. Come on, let's do it.

[joelogan]

43. Don't move the Party to the right, move the people to the left

We need to do just the opposite of what the Gop and the rightwing media machine has done. Some here claim that America will never accept a leftist party. Wrong. They will accept leftism if a case is made for leftism.

The only case that has been made to the public is conservatism. THe rightwing pushed conservatism and demonized and made war on leftism for decades.

You don't move the party to the right; you instead move the country to the left. Show rural white swing state voters how progressive taxation is used in European countries to bring a high quality of life. THAT HAS NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE. Show where every dollar goes.

Rural swing state white voters are capable of heading left if you show them why they should head left.


Also show them how the military industrial complex and the wealthy has been deliberately pushing America into war for decades. Show how they made up crap in the Gulf of Tonkin incident to get us into the Vietnam war, and how they did it in Iraq.

Do that for 3 years. THen run progressive leftwing candidates for president.

[Democat]

44. So many brainwashed voters

Between the churches and the media what can we do?