Kerry(and progressives) won a structural victory that Clinton/Gore lost

[LimpingLib]

Nevada for the first time in nearly forever voted about +3% for the Democratic party indexed to national results when we nominated a percieved "far left liberal" Kerry.

Add 5 electoral votes to the FAR LEFT!!! (Nevada is growing fast and will probabillyy get us +6 by 2012)

WE are up to 257(+) now.

New Mexico went more pro Democratic indexed to the national average than is has ever done in my memory.This is a weak state for Republicans and is only getting worse.

Add 5 more electoral votes to the FAR LEFT for 2008 and beyond!!

Now we have 262


Iowa was about +2.5% in favor of us indexed to the national average , the most since 1988 when we nominated another percieved "left winger nut".

Add 7 votes for 2008 to the FAR LEFT!!

We are at 269 now!!

Lets see, Colorado for the first time in my memory went more Pro Democratic indexed to the national average than ever before. It was +10%GOP for moderates Clinton and Gore in 1996 and 2000.Now FAR LEFT Kerry narrowed it to +3.9%GOP.

This is at least 9 electoral votes truely in play for 2008 and at least 10 in play or in our favor for 2012.

Virginia bucked the trend in the South and held Bush to just an 8 point win compared to a national 3.1% victory margin.FAR LEFT Kerry didnt even try to win this state but only lost the national partisan index by 5%.

Just think how good we will do if we nominate an economic progressive to compliment the social liberal views that we keep presenting (and contrary to popular BS we arent being rejected).We would have tied 269-269 with just about 20,000 more votes in 3 states (something like that in Colorado , NM , and Iowa).

[autorank]

1. This is the type of analysis we need. Excellent post.

There will be more opportunities out west and I think that Montana Democrats have given us the answer to gun control. Just one correction, Virginia was closer than 8 points. There was something very wrong with the tally and, of course, there were beaucoup electronic machines. We'll be blue next time.

Corporate America controls the media and we get manufactured news.
Corporate America now controls the voting machines and we get manufactured elections.

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

[LimpingLib]

2. Nevada has always been pro GOP by at least 4% (and much more)

Its now about that much in our favor.

We didnt just fight back in Nevada but we ran up the ass whomping.

Virginia will see Colorado like narrowing in 2008. Then in 2012 itwill see Nevada like GOP splattering.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Know Folks Here Like To Manipulate Numbers

but the goal of an election is to get a plurality or majority of the popular vote and a majority of the Electoral College vote...

Clinton-Gore did it twice....

[LimpingLib]

8. National Index averages tells everything.

Was Massachusetts a GOP state based on the 1984 win?

Averages can slowly be measured to determine how the nation is leaning. Center For Voting And Democracy never gave Democrats big advantages based on Clintons 1996 win. They actualy had Oregon at a slight GOP avantage headed into 2000 despite Dole only getting 39% in 1996.

We are constantly moving closer in many areas but some are moving at a galloping pace and much in our favor.

[autorank]

9. Virginia will flip in 2008 if we have real vote tallies.

I poll watched in a precinct that had 67% turnout by final report. By 9:30 AM the election folks said, "gee, 30% of the precinct has voted already." There were an additional 20% in the bag from absentee ballots. That's 50% by 9:30AM and the lines were constant except for a small lull from 3-4:30. The notion that only 17% more the precinct voted during the remaining 9.5 hours is insane, totally insane. When I get a chance, I'm going to reexamine some records. The point is, VA Democrats were totally motivated and there was probably some happy vendor in there screwing up the totals. By 2008, all the high school students in VA will be voting. They are very pro Democrat. Lots of people will have had a hard time due to * and the state WILL flip. Count on it.

BTW, we had e-voting machines that even upset the Republicans in 2003 state elections. Just great. But we'll fix this.

[LimpingLib]

11. We need none partisan solutions for this very reason.

It is the Greens and Libertarians that flipped the bill for the recount in Ohio.$130,000.

Even then it wont solve the deep rooted corruption schemes.


Had we been less partisan the last 4 years then we might have fought for and funded worthy none partisan causes. Instead of attacking Nader and such.

And we might have won with out the voting machines that didnt give paper result copys to the voter.

[tigereye]

3. i agree

we need to think ahead for next time, and positively.

[LimpingLib]

4. Im actually a pessimist.

This election sucked. Almost as bad as 1992, 1996 , and 2000.

But we are clearly moving fast ahead though we retard our potential at every opportunity.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Also, Many Folks Here Present Company Excluded Think Kerry

was a neoconservative DLC symp....

[tigereye]

7. isn't that ironic,

given he was painted as a screaming liberal ( are there really any of those left in politics?) by the Reps.

[LimpingLib]

10. Not compared to what they thought of Gore in 2000.

You need to index views as well as voting patterns to the climate.

60% in Maryland at midnight January 15th isnt "cool" but infact quite hot.

Kerry was +16% in Maryland btw just like Gore in 2000 indexed to the national average despite Gore winning by 3.5% more when looked at statically.

EDIT I meant to say 60 degrees not "%" .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Liberated From The Burden Of Running For Office

Gore has moved steadily to the left....

Your 2004 Al Gore is not the 1988 Al Gore who was Ed Koch's darling in the NY primary...

[LimpingLib]

16. In 2000 he was still 1988esque

It was around 2002 that he crossed the line toward the left for the recordbooks.

Kerry was not percieved as so much of a DLCish type like Gore was in 2000.Kerry had weaknesses though and picking Edwards clearly showed a tremendous lack of judgement and vulnerability to perr pressure.

[wasp in a wig]

12. What about those who feel disheartened/disenfranchised

due to Bush's election ? .. or the rigging ?

If they don't show up at the polls next time around, or a sizable portion of them don't, what will the Democratic Party look like then ?

I know that's awfully pessimistic, but a lot of people seem to be really bummed about the whole thing.. i.e. thinking about giving up on the system all-together.

[LimpingLib]

13. Thats where we need to work with the grass roots such as...

... Greens and Libertarians.

The Center For Voting And Democracy is always urging reforms.

The problem is we put all our massive fun raising into partisan causes , the worst being the Brad Carson $$$ throw away which is sad considering we raising record sums of money.

We put all our eggs into the same partisan basket. Its like we took all the energy in the nation and used it to heat a house in Antartica with all the dorrs and windows wide open.

Ive never seen a more grand waste of money and energy than the last year or 2 on the part of the center-left activists and philanthropists.Just imagine all the ballot measures and reforms we could have achieved.Voter education and coalition building opportunitys wasted in the biggest throw away Ive ever seen.

[zaj]

15. What is "indexed to the national average" mean?

I can't help but think it means: "we lost but if you tinker with the numbers you can make it look like we won".

I suspect if you explain, then that thought will probably go away.

:)

[LimpingLib]

17. O.K.

Virginia 1992

Clinton 41%
Bush 43%

National 1992

Clinton 43%

Bush 37%


Virginia was +8% GOP

Virginia 1996

Clinton 45%
Dole 47%

National 1996

Clinton 49%
Dole 41%

Virginia in 1996 was +10% GOP

Virginia 2000

Bush 52.4%
Gore 44.4%
Nader 2.2%

Nation 2000

Gore 48.4%
Bush 47.9%

Virginia was +8.5% GOP in 2000 (I knew we were gainning steam as Gore didnt try for this state yet he and Nader got 47%)

Nation 2004

Bush 51.1%
Kerry 48.0%

Virginia 2004

Bush 53.8%
Kerry 45.6%

Now without Kerry trying , the GOP was only +5.1% in the partisan index in Virginia the closest state outside of Florida in the South. Only Arkansas even came close to Virginia and that was a state that effort was spent by Kerry earlier and Clinton in the closing days.

[LimpingLib]

18. Florida was won 52.2%-47.0% btw.

Just to put it into perspective , that is a 2.1% GOP partisan index advantage but that is growth in the GOPs favor from 2000 and equal to 1996.

Florida is close but we dont have a whole lot of steam (roughly static)from the last 2 elections though we have improved from -7% in 1992.

I have been saying all along that Virginia is a very bright spot for us in future elections. Its the least socially conservative southern state.