Hillary can't win. Better get used to that now.

[PSU84]

Hillary can't win. Better get used to that now
by Michelle Cottle TNR Online 11.19.04

<snip>

Since Election Day, I have suffered through multiple discussions with giddy conservatives all but drooling over a Hillary run. They--like most liberals I know--all assume Senator Clinton is the horse to beat in 2008. But unlike discussions with liberals, my Hillary chats with conservatives typically begin with a variation on, Have your people gone completely insane? I'd like to take offense, but I can't, because nominating Hillary would be insanity. It's not that she's a bad gal. And she's surprised most of the Beltway crowd by turning out to be a relatively moderate, low-key, collegial, workhorse senator. Factoring in her high name recognition, her mythic status with the base, her ability to energize female voters, and, of course, her easy access to the greatest natural politician of our time, it's easy to see Hillary's appeal. Looked at rationally, she'd make a crackerjack presidential candidate.

But the American public is not rational about anyone with the last name Clinton. If you thought the Republican base was energized this year, just give them the chance to vote against that uppity Clinton girl. The GOP possibilities for fund-raising, not to mention creative attack ads, are mind-boggling. At minimum, Hillary starts with some 40 percent of the country dead-set against her. Granted, an equal number would start out in her corner. But it's hard to see how she unloads all of her baggage in order to reach enough mushy-middle voters to win. The political class may now think of Hillary as a moderate legislator. But the bulk of the electorate, all those folks who won't tune into the race until after Labor Day '08, will be voting on Hillary the icon.

<snip>

If Dems have any hope of performing better in 2008, they need to rally around a candidate who won't freak out the GOP base, even as he or she reassures wary swing voters that Democrats aren't the godless, convictionless, condescending, out-of-touch cultural aliens that Karl Rove claims. It's still too early for anyone to know who that candidate is yet. But I damn sure know who it ain't.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=life&s=cottle111904

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

1. A staunch republican woman I know said she'd vote for her in a heartbeat

[Walt Starr]

4. DUers posted about staunch Republicans who were going to vote Kerry

:eyes:

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

8. I know of 2 who did - what's you point?

Whats with the eyes?

[Walt Starr]

14. Look at how much good that anecdotal crap was!

:eyes:

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

16. Man whatever

I worked my ass off trying to convince a few republicans to switch sides and it worked so you need to point those eyes at somebody else

[Beware the Beast Man]

28. Yeah, chiefie. THREE votes would have won us the election.

right back at ya! :eyes:

[HEyHEY]

30. Yeah, so I guess we should just give up

Fuck it man....fuck it

[Wat_Tyler]

29. And some did. Do you have a point?

[formernaderite]

37. I know plenty of staunch democrats and progressives....

...who would sit out the election rather than vote for Hillary. I myself, would NEVER support her candidacy. I've more than had it with the "third way" move the right faction of the democratic party.

[Larkspur]

2. This Dem won't vote for Hillary in the primary or GE

She supports that immoral war in Iraq and supports Ariel Sharon's brutal apartheid policies against the Palestinians.

I agree with the author that the Repukes would come out in droves to vote against her and Dems like me, who will not support another DLC clown, will not vote for her. She'd get blown out.

[Dark Secret]

31. Ditto. She's Another Northeast Liberal Who Will Lose Nationally n/t

[Larkspur]

33. And she's got too much baggage to boot...

1) her surname, Clinton and
2) her sidekick, Bill

The Repukes wouldn't need an anti-gay marriage amendment to get Reichwingers to show up to the polls if Hillary is on the Prez ticket.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

35. HAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[molly]

3. Some men can't get used to women that aren't

subservient. She's a threat to their little penies.

[veteran_for_peace]

7. I am not afraid of Strong Women

I love Shelia Jackson Lee. Someone who stands up for their convictions. I don't feel that Senator Clinton does that.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. No, that's not it at all, as much as some would try to twist it that way.

I happen to like Nancy Pelosi, and yet she is a very loud and outspoken woman. Hillary Clinton is just shrewd, ruthless, and not very likable. Same with Martha Stewart. You name me any man that has those qualities and I guarantee I won't like him either.

However, even if what you say IS the truth, the reality STILL would probably send Hillary to about 160 Electoral Votes. There are an assload of people who don't like her and never will.

[yellowcanine]

12. There IS that but some also need to be convinced that she would

be a good candidate - and could do a good job if elected. She has the same problem as Kerry - little executive experience. TWO presidents have been elected directly from the Senate - Harding and Kennedy. Harding was elected mostly because any Republican would have won in 1920 and he was a terrible president. Kennedy did win against a sitting vice president - but narrowly. He was a pretty good president - how good, we don't know, because he was assassinated after only 3 years - he would have most certainly been reelected, though. So he is the exception. And maybe Hillary is the exception also. But it is not a given.

[formernaderite]

38. bullshit....I love how some women on the left always assume it's...

...as sexist thing. Get over yourself. There are plenty of women in the democratic party who deserve the nomination over Hillary....and they're women who got where they are on their own merit.

[veteran_for_peace]

5. I would vote Green over Hillary

[Coyote_Bandit]

6. I Can't Imagine that She Would Really Run

Smart woman with incredible political skills. She will not put herself in a position to be defeated.

[RafterMan]

19. How have her

"incredible political skills" manifested themselves?

Really.

[Coyote_Bandit]

21. If You Were A Long TIme Arkansas Resident

you would know that for years she was considered one of the state's most influential residents. She managed to rather successfully promote her husbands Democratic political career, maintain a law practice in one of the state's more powerful law firms, and balance other interests - including a directorship on no less than the Wal-Mart board of directors and close relations with the Tyson family and the Stephens family. It takes political skill to successfully balance such competing interests over an extended period of time - and to be respected and reasonably well liked in the process.

On edit: Before seeking the Presidency, Hillary was long considered more influential in the state of Arkansas than Bill.

[willysnout]

32. And That's Not All of It

If you were a long-time Little Rock resident (I wasn't, but I had reason to hang out there for a few years) you'd know that Hillary had quite the local reputation for erratic behavior in public places. If she runs for president and happens to get nominated, you can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye for a long, long time. If you think it was ugly in '92, '96, '00 and '04 you ain't seen nothing yet.

Incidentally, before you all tell me I'm a Freeper I want to say that I think it's great she's in the Senate and I wish her a long and happy career there. Oh, and I was 100% in favor of her health care plan. But I'm telling you folks, putting her on the ticket would be a nuclear disaster for the Democrats.

[bullimiami]

9. he is just plain wrong

any democrat with a pulse could win a fair election. especially against the devolved freaks the repubs are likely to select.

no democrat will be able to win a rigged election and that is the brutal bottom line.

Ill take Hillary in a fair fight any day.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

11. Especially when there'll be a primary for them this time

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Just Because The Pugs Are Dicks Doesn't Mean Mericans Don't Dig Them....

The problem with folks on the left and the right is that they only talk to people who think like themselves and get their own views shouted back at them and therefore think a lot more people agree with them than actually do...

If I was to talk about Bush* in my Central Florida town the way I do on this board I would lose 80% of my clients and go broke...

For every person who thinks Bush is the anti-Christ there's another person who thinks he's the messiah....

[PDX Bara]

20. Fair Fight

Me too, but we're dealing with an entity for which nothing is off limits for their goal of keeping power. At all costs, whatever it takes. This country has come full circle - the nation was born because of a King George. Do we get a rebirth because of this King George?

[JaneEyrez]

13. Sad, but true, I fear n/t

[demnan]

15. Whoever we put up will be villified by the press

and the 527s. It might as well be Hillary, at least in her family they know how to fight back.

[OneBlueSky]

17. No Democrat can win. Better get used to it . . .

unless we have some lawsuits that force the BBV machines to be retired and an honest voting system is put in place nationally . . . otherwise, it's Republican rule as far as the eye can see . . .

[Ganja Ninja]

25. We're not living in a Democracy anymore, better get use to it. n/t

[Old and In the Way]

22. The want to defeat a Clinton bad.

I'd vote for her, but after the RW spends 4 years pumping her up....they'll gleefully tear her down and use her "unpopularity" as the reason we lose in 2008. That'll be the cover for the next stolen election.

It really matters not who we run if we can't get all of our votes counted. If the system isn't fixed before the 2006 mid-terms, I doubt I'll bother continuing with the charade.

[The Backlash Cometh]

23. You know why she won't win?

The Dems will never be able to front Clinton as long as they don't have the balls to bring down the conservative machinery that has helped destroy her credibility. The conservative media has successfully made Hillary out to be a selfish, manipulative, politically ambitious witch. Until the Dems reveal the Republicans for the treasonous criminals they are, that image of Hillary will be foremost in the South's mind.

[madrchsod]

24. hillary? ya right

she has as much chance in getting elected as me to the presidency...if anyone thinks she has a remote chance in hell to get elected you must have your head in the sand. if any clinton would have a chance it would be chelsa which, although i`ll be somewhere else, i hope will happen for my kids and grand kids. maybe by then this country will be different than it is now and that`s what i`m working for till the day i die. obama- clinton or a clinton- obama ticket in the future sounds just fine to me

[SaveElmer]

26. Worthless predictions

Remember when Democrats were drooling over the possibility of running against Reagan...look what happened. Hillary Clinton certainly can't do any worse than our most recent two candidates, and can potentially do better. She would fire up the base and shore up support among women. And until we see how she campaigns we have absolutely no idea how the result would play out.

How many times are we going to underestimate the Clintons before we get it through our thick skulls that they are winners!

[noonwitch]

27. She could win in some circumstances, but a freeper would shoot her

If the american people get really fed up with the GOP, she could win, especially if there was a terrorist attack like 9-11 in a red state. This is a nightmare scenario-I'm thinking something along the lines of an attack someplace like Disneyworld, which would have a cost that is unimaginable and probably cost more lives than 9-11. As much as I like Hillary, I would not want to see some horrific event like that lead to her election as president.

The other thing that could affect her chances, which I would like to see, is that the american people get very disillusioned about Iraq. An indictment over the outing of Valerie Plame could start this, and I don't mean an indictment of Novak (Douchebag for Liberty), but of Scooter or Cheney, or a high-ranking Bush official. Once the investigation gets going, it could end up being a Watergate-like situation.

If she did get elected, some freeper would try to and possibly succeed in killing her. Some of the posters there have stated that if she is ever elected, the next civil war will begin. Others have stated their intent to kill her.

[rachel2004]

34. Hilary won't win

I agree, I don't think Hilary ha a chance in hell of winning the presidential election in 2008. Too much BAGGAGE!!!

[rockydem]

36. Fucking cowards

Yeah big war hero Kerry just lost. Vice-Prez. of the Big Dog couldn't pull it off. And Hillary is a sure loser?

Wake up to history. The unexpected happens. And most importantly, these divisive figures have a way of winning in the end. Americans like divisiveness, they like passion. They like to see their political figures drive the other side crazy with rage. Hillary would do that. She would throw the right-wing so far off their game half of them would end up in insane asylums by the times she'd be done with them.

Didn't you in your heart of hearts know Bush would win? I did. For the same reason Hillary can win in 2008. Part of our hate for Bush is because we sensed he could win. I felt it in me the first time I even heard his name - back when he won Texas in 1994. And then I felt it again when I first saw a picture of him. Trust me - right-wingers feel the same way about Hillary, kind of a sick inevitability about her. I've seen this on FR, and other cesspools of right-wing hate. They fear her because they know they might not be able to stop her. Hillary would short-circuit right wing rage and use it against them.

Kerry was not divisive enough where it counted. Kerry was mellow, vanilla - Americans want wild men/women as their presidents, people who spark passions from the heart.

[Clarkie1]

39. FOX News has been actively promoting the idea of a Hillary run in 08'

That tells me all I need to know.