Ken Salazar-only Dem to win a competetive Senate Seat - How did he do it?

[fujiyama]

How did Salazar happen to win against the wealthy beer baron Pete Coors?

I know Salazar was popular in his state, but it was a very close race throughout the campaign. The polls were tight.

But several other states' polls were also very tight - NC, FL, AK, OK, SD. We lost them all - not to mention SC and GA (which was never in doubt).

The only other open seat senate win was Obama, and any Democrat was going to win that. The state is solidy democratic and the state GOP has virtually collapsed.

Granted CO isn't nearly as conservative as the other states mentioned. It was one of the few relatively bright spots in an otherwise disasterous election. I heard that Dems also took control of one or both branches of the state legislature - not seen since the '50s. Also it was one of the few where Kerry actually got a higher % of the vote than Gore did.

So are CO's demographics changing? Was it Salazar's popularity? Is there something other candidates from other states can learn? Is there something the party can learn? Is it that the evangelical population is relegated to only a few places like Colorado Springs? I know the state has a big independant streak. Perot did really well in '92, very likely responsible for tipping the state to Clinton.

We had a rout in the south. It wasn't even competetive in the end. We lost AR and MO by almost double digits. WV by 13% in a state Dukakis took. We won only one southern race I believe (Lincoln of AR).

[Florida_Geek]

1. Touchscreen failure

IMHO, his win percentage would have been higher but for the shifting of Dem to Repug votes. IMHO again, I would add 4% to his offical total to get to the real numbers

[PATRICK]

2. Or did someone "up there" not like Coors?

How many independent big businessmen were running anyway? Maybe they don't want any rich Mavericks especially like Amo Houghton. I know this is cynical but I have to wonder if someone just had it in for Coors.

[JI7]

3. i think Colorado is one of the few states that is trending in our favor

but we also have to remember that Salazar ran as a moderate and Colorado is Kerry's birthstate (born in some military base in Colorado). Kerry ran some very good biography ads which started off telling how he was born in colorado and mentioned his dad.

i think there is a significant latino population in the state and the environment is probably an issue. they probably got a large turnout in the liberal areas.

[Leilani]

4. From what I heard:

Salazar was well known & respected, so they couldn't smear him.

He kept his distance from Kerry till towards the end of the campaign...they had a rally together.

I'm sure Coloradans would know more about it.

[Smarmie Doofus]

10. No offense... they can smear ANYONE.

If this nat'l election doesn't prove that than it proves nothing.

[cali]

5. Coors ran a bad campaign

and was a lousy candidate. The religious right was less than enthusiastic about him, he was inexperienced and didn't have too much upstairs. That said Colorado's electorate is changing, Salazar motivated Latino voters, and he ran a better campaign.

[fujiyama]

6. I think I heard something about this

Didn't they have a somewhat bitter primary? I forgot the other guy's name, but I think he was favored by the fundies but the establishment supported Coors.

[charlie]

7. Yeah, it seems Coors was the RNC nat'l fave

while Schaffer enjoyed more fervent homegrown support.

So step forward in April the tall, rich, telegenic Pete Coors, oozing the kind of name-recognition that can only come from being featured in beer-ads. His experience of politics may be zero but, much more important, he is a moderate loyal to George Bush. By contrast, Mr Schaffer sits proudly on the ultra-conservative, Christian wing of the party, declining even to campaign on Sundays. The analysis of the Republican establishment (encouraged, it seems, by some in the White House) was simple enough: Mr Schaffer would be too extreme to appeal to Colorado's almost 1m independents, whose votes matter.

In other words, although the state Republican convention in June confirmed Mr Schaffer as the activists' favourite, it made sense that the establishment had already ditched him and persuaded Mr Coors to run. As Bill Owens, Colorado's Republican governor, explained: “I happen to think Pete Coors is a stronger candidate in November.” So, it seems, do most Republicans: in what had been supposed to be a neck-and-neck primary, Mr Coors ended up winning around 60% of the vote.

...

The nastiness of the Coors-Schaffer conflict may also dismay voters regardless of their affiliation. Although Mr Schaffer has denied any involvement, Colorado Conservative Voters, a non-profit group headed by his political mentor, Bill Armstrong, a former senator, ran a series of TV ads accusing Mr Coors of wanting to lower the drinking age from 21 to 18, and claiming that the Coors company supports a “homosexual agenda” by giving health cover to the partners of gay employees.

http://www.economist.com/World/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3092935

[shraby]

8. I think they switched Kerry's votes

and Bush's because at one time Bush and Salazar each had over a million votes and Kerry had 944,056 and Coors had 944,506.

[cali]

9. Coors ran against Schaffer

who was very conservative. Owen originally supported Schaffer then switched to Coors. Schaffer was definitely the fundie favorite, and the Governor didn't do himself any favors with an important component of his base.

[tsuki]

16. How strong are the Fundies in CO?

[paulk]

20. they've been strong enough to take over the Republican Party here

but they overreached. They've been getting extremely right wing/funder candidates nominated and elected - people who's concerns were more focused on idealogical interests than the real problems Colorado faces. It cost them the both state houses in this election, also a Senate seat and a House seat. Other races were also closer than the Re pukes thought they would be.

It will be interesting to see if they can continue to control the State Party apparatus after this election - keep an eye on the 2006 Governor's race.

[tsuki]

36. I've begun to wonder also if they haven't overreached.

[sonias]

11. They ran a better, smarter campaign - grassroots and message

Democrats May Use Results in Colorado as Political Primer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A821-2004Nov20.html
(snip
Despite a large Republican advantage in registered voters and the popularity of President Bush, who carried the state easily for the second time, Colorado Democrats picked up a U.S. Senate seat and House seat that had been considered safe for the GOP. They reversed Republican majorities in the state House and Senate to take control of the legislature. And they backed expensive ballot measures that passed by large majorities despite opposition from the GOP.
(/snip)
(snip
The Democrats' success may suggest that cutting taxes is not the sure path to victory that it used to be. "Our polling and the election results show that the anti-tax agenda has run out of gas," Ciruli said. "Instead of demanding tax refunds, people are saying: Let's build schools; let's reduce the lines at the motor vehicle department."
(/snip)
--------------
Si se puede!

Sonia

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. If Any Was Seat Was Going To Stay Or Become Dem It Was CO (nt)

[Laelth]

13. He ran against a guy who's dad's name was Adolf.

His family ought to scare the dickens out of anybody who's sane.

-Laelth


P.S. Could have been a computer programming error too.

[randr]

14. Colorado also elected enough Dems

to take back the State House.

[librechik]

15. latino vote split

apparently many latino Republicans liked the Salazar/Bush ticket--just my guess.

[paulk]

22. that's what I thought at first

but I read something recently that said exit polling showed that Colorado was the only state that actually increased it's percentage of Latino's voting for the Democratic presidential candidate over the 2000 race. That would lead me to believe it wasn't split ticket voting from Latinos.

I'm beginning to think it was split ticket voting from independents, who are the 2nd largest voting group here. It was probably a case of people voting for the native "good old boy" (Salazar) and rejecting
the "northeastern liberal tea-drinker" (Kerry), that accounts for the discrepancies between Salazar's and Kerry's numbers.

I don't like saying that, but there is a lot of anti-northeasterner sentiment in Colorado. I'm originally from the northeast, and I've certainly experienced it, especially out in the hinterlands.

[DenaliDemocrat]

26. YES - It's a western thing

Having lived in Colorado for the first 28 years of my life, I can assure you that a rich, eastern, uppity, yuppie has no appeal there to a lot of people. As long as we keep putting out candidates like this, we are going to lose.

[BeFree]

17. My two cents, or sense

Divided they fall.

The primary was between extremists: Coors and the fundie. It created division amongst the pubs and more than a few pubs became dis-interested in that election.

Dems ran a moderate in a state populated with independents.

That's two.

Extra: The computers screwed up big time. Keep an eye out for ESS & Diebold operatives coming to Colorado to figure out why,

[seabeyond]

18. a woman in colorado voted against coor and for bush because

coor has said he wanted to lower the drinking age to 18

i have wondered why repugs let salazar win. i am ocnfident without proof bush stole votes and i think they did it in colorado too. maybe they just didnt steal enough for coor

[janx]

19. It happened because of a combination of factors, but

suffice it to say that he had a lot of support from many corners.

[gulfcoastliberal]

21. Maybe Coloradoians are sick of all the Bushco wells they're drilling in

peoples backyards all over the state. I heard this is also majorly upsetting repug farmers/ranchers in Montatana. People don't always realize when they buy property that they are not owners of any minerals that may be beneath the surface. The drilling companies can build roads, install noisy, smelly, ugly rigs on your property, and there isn't jack shit you can do aout it.

Wasn't Salazar snubbed by the DNC/DLC? IIRC, they wanted some DLC corporate type to win the primary, not Salazar. Anti-DLC candidates seem to have a better track record.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Heard Salazar Is Pretty Conservative...

And that he ran to the right of Coors On the Patriot Act and the death penalty...

[Cheswick2.0]

29. a look at his web site would diabuse you of that impression

He ran all over the map. Much of his aggenda was downright liberal.

[fujiyama]

38. I think he is pretty moderate.

He endorsed Lieberman in the primaries.

[paulk]

24. You're wrong on the Salazar snub idea

Salazar has long been considered a rising star by the DLC. In the primaries a much more liberal candidate, Mike Miles, ran against him and was defeated handily.

[gulfcoastliberal]

28. My bad, I had Miles and Salazar mixed up.

I thought Miles was the conservative one. A pity that Miles lost, then.

[rockymountaindem]

31. Miles never stood a chance against Salazar.

It wasn't an ideological thing at all. I mean, Salazar was the state AG, while Miles had struggled for over a year to become the superintendent of a school district and didn't even get that. Who you gonna go with?

[Cheswick2.0]

30. Salazar is not a DLC candidate

He is in favor of supporting small business but rejects the ideas of the DLC which favors funding from big corporations and rejection of unions etc... They probably just put him on their members list like they did Obama.
He got a great deal of support from DFA and that would not have happened had he ran a DLC campaign.

[paulk]

33. I'm sorry if reality fails to leak past your idealogical blinkers

DLC | Press Release | May 15, 2003
DLC Spotlights 100 of the Rising New Democrat Stars
The '100 to Watch' Represent the Future of the Democratic Party

For Immediate Release:
Contact: Karin Kullman/Eric Wortman [phone] / [phone]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) today released 100 New Democrats to Watch: The Next Generation of Leadership, which casts a spotlight on elected leaders who are making a difference in their states and communities by using innovative means to solve real problems and advance the goals of security, opportunity and responsibility.

The announcement came at a DLC strategy session with more than 60 state and local New Democrat elected officials to discuss their "outside the Beltway" ideas and views on the future of Democratic politics. Gov. Mark Warner (VA), Senator Evan Bayh (IN), Columbus (OH) Mayor Michael Coleman, and Pennsylvania State Rep. Jennifer Mann, joined the DLC's Al From and Bruce Reed at a briefing to discuss what the real and current voices of the Democratic Party have to say.

"The DLC has long believed that leaders around the country, not just in Washington, should set the national agenda," DLC founder and CEO Al From explained. "These rising stars -- spread out all across the nation -- have their fingers on the pulse of America. They are the leaders who everyday must address the hopes and problems all Americans face in their own communities."

This second installment of the DLC's 100 New Democrats to Watch, like the first in the summer of 2000, touts rising stars in the Democratic Party from beyond Washington, D.C. and below the rank of governor. These officials are being recognized for their dedication to succeed in pursuing modern means to advance traditional Democratic values. The 100 New Democrats to Watch list, which features short profiles of each elected official, is available on the DLC's website, www.ndol.org.

"These elected officials represent the future of the Democratic Party. One day soon, they will be the rising stars of the House and Senate; they will be governors of our states and leaders of our nation's cities," DLC Vice Chair Rep. Ellen Tauscher (CA) said. "These elected officials will offer us the ideas and leadership that will guide the Democratic Party and the country for the next twenty-five years, and we need to start listening to them."

Here are members of the DLC's 100 New Democrats to Watch: The Next Generation of Leadership listed by state:




COLORADO

Joan Fitz-Gerald, Senate Minority Leader
Michael Garcia, State Rep.
Dan Grossman, State Sen.
Ken Salazar, Attorney General
Jennifer L. Veiga, House Minority Leader

---------------------------------------------------------


I'm not surprised, since many of the DFA faithful have also managed to ignore that Howard Dean himself was once a DLC poster boy.

What I don't understand is this constant need to trash the DLC exhibited by many DFA members on this board, many of whom don't have the slightest idea of what the DLC even stands for, or who is actually in it.

[janx]

34. He got support from both, Ches.

Salazar was seen as a winner here from the start. And many felt he was owed that support because he helped stop the redistricting fiasco here not that long ago.

So he had a huge amount of support, but I think the real reason he won in Colorado was that we have a enormous amount of independents here who were tired of having two Republican U.S. senators representing the state. (That, and the fact that Pete Coors was a horrible candidate, period...)

[FrenchieCat]

35. He was also particular ....

about who he campaigned with. Note that he had General Wes Clark campaign for and with him.....

http://www.cms.org/ASAP/SalazarEvents.html

[paulk]

25. a lot of factors led to Salazar's win...

Salazar had major name recognition, having won two statewide races as AG.

Colorado's demographics ARE changing, more of the recent immigrants come from liberal areas, unlike the huge influx of Orange County Republicans we had 10-15 years ago, that skewed the state to the right.

The Hispanic population is the fastest growing demographic, and Colorado has the most liberal voting Latino pop. in the nation.

Don't forget also that Ken Salazar's brother, John, ran and won for the western district House seat. That's two Latino's getting their vote out.

The Salazar campaign attacked Coors very successfully as "out of touch" with regular Coloradans, while painting Salazar as just a regular guy (which he is).

What can we take away from Colorado?

If we want to win moderate states we need to run moderate candidates.
Personal attacks work. Regarding the State House - voters will turn out politicians who are more focused on idealogical issues rather than dealing with real problems. The Latino voting block has come of age - and the Democrats need to court it.

[demokatgurrl]

27. He was under the radar-

he wasn't a big target like Daschle, big enough to get Rove after him.

[kentuck]

32. I would not read too much into it..

Coors had a primary with the right-winger, Bob Shaefer. In the process, he may have turned off a few of the fundamentalist votes in CO. He owns a beer company, for Christ sakes! And he wanted to lower the drinking age...In a conservative state like CO, and it is conservative, we do not know how much influence that had on the election. But I would not look at it as some sort of Democratic wave.

[dsc]

37. Coors was an abysmal candidate

and Salazar was also a good one. Kerry spent time in Colorado which kept his numbers decent there. In many of the other races you sight Kerry lost the state by double digits and virtually never went there (he went to NC to raise money but not campaign). Bowles also was hurt by his association with Clinton.