WilliamPitt
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:26 PM
Original message |
Kerry: 35.6% Dean: 16.4% Edwards: 34.8% Gephardt 12.3% |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:30 PM by WilliamPitt
http://press.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtmlThat's a private press tracker we at truthout were given access to. These are the numbers at 8:30pm. Don't try to click; it's password protected. I wanted to put the link there so people don't think I'm just inventing numbers.
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Jack_Dawson
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:28 PM
Response to Original message |
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:wtf:
I thought Iowa was all about Dean and Gebhardt? Wow.
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Jack Rabbit
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:28 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Doesn't do most of us any good, Will |
WilliamPitt
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. Just wanted to give you a reference |
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so you didn't think I was pulling these numbers out of my ass.
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creativelcro
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:35 PM
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18. The numbers are at http://www.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtml |
TomNickell
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
50. Except you can't get to the link, 'cause there's so many people trying. |
lancdem
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
23. Um, nice visual, Will |
MuseRider
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:29 PM
Response to Original message |
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So far this is pretty interesting. I am having too many nerves to actually watch. Damn.
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never cry wolf
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:29 PM
Response to Original message |
5. Authorization required for the link |
Bolo Boffin
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:30 PM
Response to Original message |
6. Hey Will, if Gep doesn't make 15%, where will his voters go? |
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I'm betting Kerry.
Well, I don't have any money on it...
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SadEagle
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
13. You're misunderstanding the 15% rule for Caucuses. |
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It's happening at each precinct level, not globally. So this is actual delegates for Gep already.
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Bolo Boffin
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:35 PM
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19. Sorry that I wasn't clear... |
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I knew that it's the 15% at the precinct level. But if Gephardt is hitting around 15%, I'd say odds are there will be a high number of precincts that he doesn't hit 15% in, which means his supporters there will have to choose another, correct?
And I'm thinking that overall, they will pick Kerry.
Sorry for that misunderstanding. :)
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sistersofmercy
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
20. Yes, Gephardt voters will most likely go to Kerry. |
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Across the board, after this as well, from St louis Missouri, Peace.
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Maddy McCall
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:30 PM
Response to Original message |
7. Thanks so much Will; how many precincts reporting. |
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This is great news for those of us who support Kerry and Edwards.
What percent is reporting?
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WilliamPitt
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
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Maddy McCall
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:34 PM
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SangamonTaylor
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
14. small towns are giving kerry/edwards an early bump |
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I'd guess the larger cities (with younger people) will come in later. I couldn't imagine them being done so early with such large #'s.
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The Magistrate
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
28. There Will Not be Too Much Difference, Sir |
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Burlington and Des Moines and the like are not much more than larger towns in their make up....
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askew
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
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9. Thanks for the update. |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:33 PM by askew
It's horrible news in my opinion. But, what the polls predicted.
I am assuming it's the smaller cities/precints that have reported first.
Did it say anything about turnout?
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Adenoid_Hynkel
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
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amazing how susceptible people are to the corporate media
feels like november 2002 all over again
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incapsulated
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
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Can Kerry possibly keep that kind of lead?
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Paragon
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
Response to Original message |
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Out of how many precincts reporting, Will? :eyes:
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mb7588a
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:31 PM
Response to Original message |
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woooooohoooooooooooooooo :bounce: :toast:
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Native
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:34 PM
Response to Original message |
16. I just pulled the same results from this site |
windansea
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
25. that server is working better |
Native
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
The Magistrate
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:35 PM
Response to Original message |
17. It Would Seem, Mr. Pitt |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:35 PM by The Magistrate
People are making their decision according to their own perceptions of electability. The rank and file of the Party wants nothing more than the rout of the criminals of the '00 Coup at the polls this fall, and means to secure it.
"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"
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Rowdyboy
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
22. Concise, to the point, and |
Jack Rabbit
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
31. That very well could be, sir |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:49 PM by Jack Rabbit
I recall past Iowa winners going on to go nowhere (recall George Bush in 1980), but I'd say that if these early figures hold up the pressure is on Dr. Dean to win New Hampshire next week. I don't mean do well -- I mean win.
I don't consider Dean unelectable. Kucinich and Sharpton would get little support from the entrist indepentents and Lieberman wouldn't be able to hold the left flank of his own party; they're the ones who would have the biggest problems. But it appears that the conventional wisdom may be that Kerry and Edwards are more electable and that is what is being reflected thus far tonight.
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The Magistrate
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
43. Gov. Dean Is Not Un-Electable, My Friend |
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He does, though, strike me as a little more difficult to elect than some others would be. His greatest asset is his combativeness: he will not take things lying down, and people like a fighter. But he can be easily caricatured, and he will have difficulty pressing the case against the war to the general electorate, it seems to me.
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Jack Rabbit
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #43 |
47. That is a problem all our candidates face, sir |
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None of them go into this race well known nationally. Each of them are susceptible to being saddle with a negative impression from an opponent.
Of course, a common enemy they all have -- and we have -- is the Bush White House. Mr. Rove is a master propagandist. He can be expected to take advantage of the public's general unfamiliarity with our candidates.
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The Magistrate
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #47 |
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Each will be assailed mercilessly, and we must be prepared for it. One important factor in our decision must be a consideration of which will be less vulnerable to expected lines of attack. That is why you see me supporting Gen. Clark. In my judgement, he is less vulnerable to the usual "soft on defense" line the Republicans are accustomed to make such great play with, and which the public is prone to accept as so.
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Jack Rabbit
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #51 |
54. I hate to say watch them, but watch them |
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If they could morph a man who lost three limbs in Vietnam into an Osama sympathizer, then they can make a four-star general into a peacenik.
Still, that is one of Clark's strengths. I am not committed, but he is high on my list.
Dr. Dean is also high, because, as you say, he won't take things laying down.
After tonight, I may be looking at Senator Kerry again. A few weeks ago, I was ready to bury him.
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Leilani
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
34. That is what the Entrance Polls are Showing |
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People voting on electability..
Also entrance polls are showing anti-war people are voting with Kerry.
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Cocoa
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
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winning isn't enough, Bush must be humiliated, and any republican that stands with him must pay for it.
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WilliamPitt
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:37 PM
Response to Original message |
24. UPDATE: 263 precincts reporting |
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Kerry: 36.6% Edwards: 33.9% Dean: 17.6% Gephardt: 10.9%
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incapsulated
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #24 |
26. Edwards is closing in... |
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This is getting interesting!
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nothingshocksmeanymore
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #24 |
27. I think I'm getting a boner |
Langis
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:40 PM by Langis
And I'm at work! This is a problem!
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AP
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
33. I'm having palpitations. |
Rowdyboy
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
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I'm choking! Seriously choking it back!
Well, hell, if you are, I might as well too!
It is that sort of night, isn't it?
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nothingshocksmeanymore
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
37. Don't start a "Raise your hand if" thread |
tishaLA
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #37 |
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shocks YOU anymore, but these results are shocking to me. I'd hoped for something like this, but to see it happening is amazing.
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curse10
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
sistersofmercy
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #24 |
39. I support Kerry but... |
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I do feel bad for Gephardt. Being from St Louis, I almost feel like a traitor, almost...I just think Kerry is the man for the job.
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nothingshocksmeanymore
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #39 |
42. I can sympathize but Gep did a horrible job as minority leader |
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and after the Rose Garden ceremony... I don't think ANYONE could be a bigger traitor to him than he wa to his own party.
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sistersofmercy
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #42 |
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He is a man of the people around these parts, very much respected and loved but most don't believe he has what it takes to be president. I believe most Gephardt supporters will easily switch to Kerry in the event Geppy drops out.
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nothingshocksmeanymore
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:04 PM
Original message |
Agreed..I don't think this means they love him any less for his advocacy |
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but his LEADERSHIP skills were less than sufficient given the job and I think that may have played out in people's hearts, minds and votes..don't get me wrong..i don't dislike Gep..but to say I am disappointed in him is an understatement.
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sistersofmercy
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:09 PM
Response to Original message |
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Perhaps, he should run for the senate. I had hoped for a while he'd be in the VP position but I don't think that is going to happen at this point either. If Kerry and Edwards team up, they'd be unstoppable.
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Native
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:43 PM
Response to Original message |
32. What gives with the pics? |
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Why is Kerry's the only one without a coat & tie?
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Tim_in_HK
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:44 PM
Response to Original message |
35. How many precints are there in Iowa? n/t |
Native
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #35 |
spooky3
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:48 PM
Response to Original message |
40. UPDATE 390 of 1993 precincts |
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Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 08:48 PM by spooky3
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WilliamPitt
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #40 |
48. 645 of 1993 precincts reporting |
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Kerry: 37.1 Edwards: 33.0 Dean: 17.7 Gephardt: 10.8
That 10.8 for Gep may go to Kerry, which would seal the deal.
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diamondsoul
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #48 |
55. So Will are you dancing yet? |
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I am, and yes, I know I'm a freak. LOL
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Langis
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:48 PM
Response to Original message |
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Kerry - 36.3% Edwards 34.3% Dean - 18% Gep - 10.5%
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MaineDem
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Mon Jan-19-04 08:57 PM
Response to Original message |
49. This is great news for Kerry |
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Here's hoping the momentum continues!!!
I'm a nervous wreck.
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bigtree
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Mon Jan-19-04 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #49 |
52. Gov. Dean conceded Iowa to Sen. Kerry on Larry King |
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congragulated him and Sen. Edwards. He said it looks like Sen. Kerry wins. :toast:
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