Dr. Dean "less than performance"-- root cause analysis for Dean supporters

[cthrumatrix]

I don't need a bashing thread to look at Dr Deans performance.

A couple of things:
--------------------
* High voter registration -- with Dean's force-- I'm surprised (like many) why kerry/edwards scored higher(odd)

* Caucus "behavior" - Gep was marginalized and people flowed to Kerry/Edwards

* Media "hunt" --- media has to pleased with their non-stop attack

* Des Moines Register (Gannet Newspaper) - endorse of Edwards was big...let's watch other corporate papers.


Where does that leave Dr. Dean
-------------------------------
* Dean tops in delegates (polled and yes they can switch). New count should come out soon.
* Dean at th top (1st and 2nd in several states) upcoming states
* A Dean "supporting cast" ready to go...this is 1st of 50 states
* All this "other talk" is rhetoric...the voters will tell us more next weekend.



My congrats to the Kerry/Edwards and it's on to compete in other states...that's the nature of the primary. Live and learn.

anything else to add from Dean supporters (only please)

[Melinda]

1. Not to mention the "crossover" vote

Make no doubt about it... many rethuglicans crossed over to interfere with democracy tonight.

On to NH.

[XanaDUer]

2. Proof?

eom.

[cthrumatrix]

5. we'll never know how the 300% increase in registration affected the #'s

I think a 'surge is great'....but that amount is huge.

IT appears Kerry/Edwards got the majority of the "new votes"...two teams w/o the biggest organizations....what gives?

[Melinda]

14. Sure, read these threads for more info:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=138946

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=138602

It's almost exactly like what happened to Cynthia McKinney on 11/2002 in DeKalb County Ga; I know for a fact there was a concerted effort by the local GOP to crossover in the primary and defeat her - I was married at the time to one of the GOP organizers who plotted and participated in that subversion.

[XanaDUer]

19. So, you're saying that , en masse,

as part of a strategy to discredit Dean, Republicans flew out the door to re-register as Dems, to potentially bring into office Kerry?

This is the same Kerry who fought Republicans for decades, and is rated as one of the most-despised liberals by Republican-based and other conservative organizations?

He and Ted Kennedy are the two candidates who are now considered the most liberal members of congress since Wellstone's death.

That is so convoluted, it is absurd.

[cthrumatrix]

22. to "handle" one at a time --- they could ....Dean had the "mo" maybe to

take dean back down...lord knows the media did.


Nobody knows...is the answer and anything is possible. If Dean rolled tonight it would have been chaos for Rove an dthe other Dems.

this was a critical night to stop the initial thrust for Dean

[XanaDUer]

25. I don't quite understand what your post means

but, do you mean the conservatives are so afraid of Dean, they organized to put Kerry and Edwards ahead of him? Thus, whose who do not support Dean are Republicans or tools of the Republicans? Thus, lifelong in Iowa have been used by Republicans for decades, unknown to them? There was a Republican caucus in Iowa tonight as well, which means all of these people would have had to abandon Bush to re-register as Dems, and therefore be unable to vote for Bush in the Republican caucus.

The media seemed quite supportive of Dr. Dean.

A week ago, Dean was farther ahead of Kerry in the Iowa polls than he is ahead of Kerry right now in NH.

:tinfoilhat:
:tinfoilhat:
:tinfoilhat:

[cthrumatrix]

28. Ok...here's my tinfoil hat

Dean was too far ahead...media..polls...machine effort. This made Rove and company very nervous beucase dean has a great message.

They HAD to slow him down. IF Dean pulls a 40% in Iowa..it could have been too big for others who didn't have a machine or $$$$

Step One -- media assualt...bring him down ... accomplished

Setp two --- same day repug crossover or new voter registration for those who want bush. Why Kerry and Edwards..? They can take them down later.

I still think they don't want Dean.

[Melinda]

24. Sorry, but I never mentioned Senator Kerry in my post, nor...

will you find an inference toward him or his candidacy. Please don't make broad brush accusations toward me. I said what I said, plain and simple. If you think that the GOP plays fair, well, alrighty then.

[George_Bonanza]

26. You accuse the Iowa caucuses of being Repub-infested

And act all innocent when that's clearly a bash against the leaders Kerry and Edwards? How would you take it if I accused a state Dean won of being skewered by Republicans?

[XanaDUer]

29. I know.

Would it not be Kerry and Edwards?

Maybe they mean Nadar? Or Gephardt?

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[XanaDUer]

27. That's a bit much.

"If you think the GOP plays fair, well, alrighty then."

I am not sure why you are accusing me of thinking the GOP plays fair.

Let's just stay on Dean then. Dean has formal Republican support in VT during his gubernatorial campaigns. Republicans For Dean, an organization consisting of a fairly large number of Republica bigwigs in VT, and CEOs. This includes William Gilbert, the head of Dean's energy taskforce.

[Melinda]

33. No, let's stay on topic.

I asserted and supported through my first hand account that the GOP sends in operatives to affect and skew election results. That's the point - not Kerry or Edwards or Dean. It's the process that affects the outcome... and I am addressing the process, not the result.

So I'm sorry if I've failed to sufficiently explain the difference, I am at a loss as to how to otherwise do so. :shrug:

[Democrats unite]

3. Now thats one I haven't heard.

eom

[Maddy McCall]

9. Really? I thought we were eager for Republicans to "see the light"

and join our party. I am glad that they did. :-)

[are_we_united_yet]

4. Uhhhh

I still think Dean is the best candidate but I believe folks have the mindset that media will paint him as a hot headed ultra liberal and will be beaten black and blue by that *sshole Rove.

[cthrumatrix]

7. they play for keeps...clearly the registration incr. needs to be looked at

[alarimer]

31. for Dean

I think it only means that he has to regroup and maybe change a few things. I don't think it is that big a deal. THere is a long way to go yet and I am sure the lead will change a few times. I am kind of surprised at this. Dean has been "Gored" by the media. Now I guess it is Kerry's turn. The media will no doubt find something to lie about with Kerry and Edwards now. Maybe it will help Dean; the pressure might be off a little bit. Who knows? I can live with Kerry or Edwards as the nominee (actually any of them really).

[kstewart33]

6. If these numbers hold and Dean is a weak third

There is no question that electability emerged as the decisive factor. Beat Bush---that's the mantra that is making the difference, and all the questions about Dean have coalesced to defeat him.

Just heard on MSNBC--40% of those polled going into the caucuses said that they decided in the last week. Makes sense to me because Edwards and Kerry have surged in the last week.

[cthrumatrix]

10. well if they are talking to "newly registered" it's possible...anything is

but quite frankly it doesn't matter...you move on and learn.

[Guaranteed]

13. These caucusers were around during the 2002 election, right?

Do they understand what it takes to be electable???

[cthrumatrix]

17. Maybe they don't see the 'games' or the effort to required to beat shrub

I personally do not see an insider pulling it together...

[Quixote1818]

21. Emotion Turns to Rational Thinking

I think what's going on is Dean did well by tapping into emotion and it was easy to say I am voting for Dean when your vote doesn’t count but as people had to really think about who could beat Bush then guys like Kerry and Edwards emerged. Kerry is solid, experienced and will look better on National Security than Dean. Edwards has the charisma of Bill Clinton and stayed positive. People’s rational brains took over as they realized it was time to get serious and get rid of Bush. This trend looks very good for Clark as well who most see is the most electable and by far the strongest candidate to run when it comes to national defense during the War on terror. You can't run someone anti War during a War. Dean can't overcome this while Clark can I believe because he has laid out how he would have gone after Usama first.

[cthrumatrix]

23. I think new voters had alot to do with tonight....i would feel more

"confident" with a machine effort than an insider from DC...and Clark who they can pick off as never running.

[Cuban_Liberal]

8. Dean only got 'winged' tonight.

Anyone who mistakes him for 'down and out' is likely going to get a huge shock. There are 20 million reasons why he's not going to just go away. Bet on it.

[cthrumatrix]

12. Agreed...he was "played" by the media... it's a long race and congrats

go the winning teams as hard as it is

[Cuban_Liberal]

16. Yes, and tomorrow is a brand-new day.

NH is still there, and so is Dr. Dean, his 30% hard-core support and $20 million. I'm not kidding myself--- it's WE who face the uphill battle.

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. all process points

it couldn't have anything to do with the candidate or their positions?

[cthrumatrix]

15. well if it were polled as such....never saw a "gap in issues" ..? hard to

say...people always said he wo the debate...and then they just ganged up on him

Gephardt didn't hold his own tonight...made Kerry / Edwards numbers

[sendero]

18. I wonder....

.... it seems to me that Deans poll numbers dropped precipitously after the airing of the comment he made 4 years ago about the Iowa caucus.

Personally, I think his comment was 100% correct, but people don't like being told their state apparatus is bullsh*t, even if it is true.

Personally, I think this is a setback but not a big one. People in the other states aren't going to care much about his Iowa caucus opinions :)

[Melinda]

20. Anyone know who the last President was that lost both Iowa & NH?

:)

[NewHampster]

32. Good old Billy lost as we voted for Paul Tsongas

Just goes to show that our little states are really a joke.

Has anyone begun to wonder how Clark can hold out on his matching budget?

[LoneStarDem]

34. Matching Budget?

What, you mean that old chestnut about how taking matching funds fucks him? We ran the numbers a while back, turns out they are bunk. He has plenty of money.