The Semi-Official Caucus Results Analysis Thread by Cryofan

[cryofan]

I didn't really like the IA caucus system a week ago; I felt it was undemocratic. However, now I can see that it serves as a marathon up-close-and-personal "personality vetting" of the candidates. The IA caucus lets the voters get to know the candidates fairly well. They have to let everything hang out. Not much way to hide much from those people when you undergo that sort of grueling process.

OK, why did Dean lose? I think that Dean's brand of self-assured confidence that verges on cockiness goes over pretty well with younger people, even with people up to 40 years old. But once you get a few scars of life on you, that sort of persona may wear pretty a bit thin with many voters.

Under the up-close scutiny of Iowa, Dean showed himself for what he was. Ho offense to him or his supporters. I think he still has a chance. Most people who vote are older (40 or more). And in the more populated states, ones with the big cities where young people from states like IA run off to, he will do better.

So why the sudden success of Kerry and Edwards?

It was not due to media attention. As I have posted here before, Dean has had far far more media mentions than anyone else. Edwards came out of nowhere, from low poll numbers and low media mentions.

It was not due to money. Dean had far more money.

One big factor was the persona and stump speaking skills of the candidates. In that area, both are the equal of Dean, and Edwards might be even better. Edwards and Kerry are just very personable and effective when it comes to the kind of venue they encountered in the IA caucuses.

Kucinich, my favorite, just does not have the kind of persona and stump speaking skills to compete with Dean, Edwards, and Kerry. he is wooden and almost monotonic at times. No range or inflections!

I am surprised at Gephardt's performance here. He has good skills and his persona came across well, judging from what I saw of him in IA.

The other big factor was the populist tone taken by Edwards and Kerry. They both railed against corporate governance and lobbying. If that theme continues to find resonance, it bodes ill for Clark (he was a lobbyist).

The performance of Edwards and Kerry should serve notice that the anti-corporate theme is a winner for the Dems this year. But I would bet that we will hear nothing of that from the media.

As for which candidate to support from here on out....whichever viable candidate uses the most liberal, populist, anti-corporte rhetoric will get my support. I urge you all to not attach yourself to one candidate, but to switch to whichever one puts out the most populist, anti-corporate, Lefty rhetoric. This is how we can push the Democratic party to the left.

If the leaks from the white house are any indication, Bush will unveil some sort of healthcare initiative tomorrow night. I hope that the leading Dem candidates will then try to "one-up" Bush and will then present more comprehensive healthcare plans themselves.

Onwards to Victory!