some things to consider after tonight's results . . .

[OneBlueSky]

- Kerry is a fighter. He was written off for dead just weeks ago, but he hung in there, kept fighting, and pulled off a win in the first presidential contest. Deserves major kudos for that.

- The Iowa win will give Kerry momentum going into New Hampshire. Given that both Dean and Kerry are NH neighbors, and that most voters seem to like both of them, look for Kerry to narrow the gap with Dean considerably and very possibly, imo, win New Hampshire outright. The unknown factor, of course, is what impact Clark will have in NH. My hunch is that most voters will stick with a New Englander who they know.

- A lot of people are voting on perceived electability. The most important thing to most Democrats is beating Bush, and they want the candidate who seems to have the best shot at doing that. Going into New Hampshire, this is a plus for Kerry and a minus for Dean, imo.

- If either Kerry or Dean wins the nomination, the other will not be the winner's running mate. Two candidates from New England just makes no sense. If either is the nominee, top VP candidates would appear to be Edwards and Clark, imo.

- Kucinich and Lieberman should be gone following New Hampshire. Sharpton will probably stick around to represent his constituencies, which is not a bad thing. So the race seems to be coming down to Kerry, Edwards, Dean, and Clark -- with Kerry and Edwards having the momentum right now.

[scheming daemons]

1. You're forgetting MONEY

George Bush lost Iowa in 2000

Reagan lost Iowa in 1980

Clinton lost Iowa in 1992


Iowa means almost NOTHING in the scheme of things. Kerry poured everything he had into Iowa to come out on top... same with Edwards.

Will they have the $$$$ to outlast Dean and Clark, who both have a large money edge?

I'm saying this as an Edwards supporter. I hope the strong showing by Edwards will cause the money to start rolling in... but Kerry and Edwards have been getting big $2000 checks, while Dean and Clark have been getting $100 checks and can go back and ask those people for more money.

Without the money, we can't beat Bush. Dean has the money. Clark is getting the money. Kerry has Teresa's money. Edwards needs to get the money.

It's all about the money. Forget tonight... it means NOTHING unless it leads to an influx of money for a candidate. Dean has an organization set up in every state already. Kerry doesn't. Edwards doesn't. Clark doesn't.

I think it's still Dean's to lose... because he has the money lead.


Only 27 delegates were chosen tonight... out of over 2,000. If Iowa really meant anything, Pat Robertson would have been a viable candidate in 1988 when he came in second to Bush I.


Iowa is meaningless....


(and this is from an Edwards supporter who's ecstatic about tonight..)

[dreissig]

3. Iowa Loses Credibility

Iowa Democrats have not factored in the intense resistance among Democrats to John Kerry. The war vote wasn't that long ago, and the war itself is ongoing. There's no way I can bring myself to overlook Kerry's betrayal.

[Punkingal]

2. I think a very positive thing that I heard today...

was that there were a LOT of new people voting, and they voted for all the candidates. To me that means that people want to get rid of Bush, and what could be better than that?

[countmyvote4real]

4. Excellent point.

Let's all keep our eyes on the prize. ABB