Deconstructing the IA caucus debacle

[Lobo_13]

As someone who was on the ground, I've got a few observations about what happened. Afterwards, I'll give some insight in what I hope Gov. Dean will do to recover. These are just observations, you may or may not agree with them, just stay polite.

1. Attacks. Anyone with a reasonable head on their shoulders would not deny that Dean was taking a serious beating from all sides for the past six weeks, most of which was not deserved. The problem I observed is that he allowed it to sidetrack his message.

2. Message. He made a serious mistake in shifting his message to "You have the power" exclusively. That's all very well and good, but you have to give people a reason to vote for you.

3. Personality. This kind of ties into the message. He allowed everyone else to define who he was. He stopped touting his record as Gov. of VT. He stopped putting forth what he would do specifically. Having his wife come out was a good first step in the right direction, but he should have started it a month ago.

Right now, Governor Dean is on a plane to NH. I would like to imagine that there are some serious discussions going on that involve the following.

1. Clarify the message. The campaign is all about the people, but he's the visible face of it. He has to stop referring to his campaign as if it was some other thing. He's the head of it, he should acknowledge that and use it to get people to focus on him.

2. Personality. I think the Howard Dean we saw get on the plane is going to be very different from the Howard Dean that gets off in NH. He'll still have the passion, but I think it's time for him to start letting people sand off some of the rough edges. Edwards was right, anger isn't enough.

3. Don't get sidetracked. Thankfully, this should get some of the attention off of him and on to other people that maybe have been getting a free ride. Kerry and Clark are going to start clawing at each other, Edwards might not be able to turn IA to his advantage in NH. He's down pretty far.

4. Spend the goddamned money, you tightwad. We gave it to you, now use it.

Remember, this is just my opinion. I know it's not over yet, but there are going to have to be changes in the campaign.

The silver lining, Trippi and Dean aren't stupid. I'm confident that this is going to be addressed. This is a marathon, not a sprint, so he's still got the money and organization advantage. We still have the tools to do it, but we can still f** it up.

[michaelbmoore]

1. I will say. . .

in the most polite way that I can muster, that Dean got trounced. He spent more time and money there anyone else and got trounced. Explain that away, please.

--Mike

[Democrats unite]

2. I concur.

eom

[Lobo_13]

4. Actually

Kerry spent the most in the last month or so, by far. Something like 4-5 mil.

Dean spent 3.5 mil.

Kerry easily had at least twice as many spots in the last month.

I think that had a lot to do with what happened as well.

[RichV]

9. Why?

Dean has way, way more money... why didn't he match 'em ad-for-ad if that's what it took?

[bhunt70]

3. I think thats a pretty good assessment.

Someone should give you a job :)

[wtmusic]

5. Good analysis

[mitchum]

6. I hope there's not an air rage incident on that NH bound plane

[bloom]

7. I was thinking about Edwards doing so well

He may not be the darling of progressives - though I noticed on his website that he claims to have voted against Bush more often than any other Senator (58%) - so perhaps he has gotten the message that is important at least to some people....

But isn't he just like the American Idol kind of person that Americans like? I guess a lot of people see Clark that way - but I think that for the Americas "average" Joe or Jane that it may be Edwards. He just might be just what their TV-influenced minds would dream up.

And while he is not as progressive as what my American Idol would be - I could live with him being the nominee, nonetheless.

He has made amazing progress recently - so anyway, it's something to think about.

[lazarus]

8. He voted with Bush 42% of the time

and he's bragging about it?

And we wonder why people are fed up with politics these days....

[DjTj]

12. That's the lowest percentage of any Senator...

...this year.

Lower than Boxer, Byrd, Kennedy - the absolute lowest percentage in the Senate.

I think 42% of the time they vote on things like naming bridges and small budget proposals.

It's not like every single law that's passed is controversial.

[AP]

18. It's lower than Feingold.

[dreissig]

10. Iowans Blew It

Iowans didn't put their state in a good light tonight. John Kerry is not going to be the standard bearer of the party, his negatives among Democrats are too high. The poll that said the war isn't important in Iowa shows that Iowa's values are out of the mainstream.

Iowans shot themselves in the foot with the outcome of the caucuses. Before tonight they hadn't made much of an impression on me one way or the other. Tonight they made a distinctly negative impression on a lot of people.

[goodhue]

11. no

Iowa's values are the mainstream. Stop reading polls and get a grip. Iowans rejected negativity and went for positive hopeful choices. Sorry it didn't fit with your preference but please don't take it out on Iowa.

[dreissig]

14. Not Based on Polls

My rejection of the Iowa caucus isn't based on polls, and I do have a grip. I don't agree that the selection process is accurate. Kerry has huge negatives among Democrats, and I don't believe these were factored in. Kerry's vote for the war was as offensive as if he'd voted to restore slavery. There are lots of Democrats who will never vote for him. Is he planning to pick up those votes from the Republicans? Sounds doubtful to me.

[Rowdyboy]

15. Have Iowans heard that you reject their caucuses?

How should they react? How should any of us react? Why should we ask you?

[isbister]

16. Re: Not Based on Polls

Kerry has huge negatives among Democrats

Where in the world did you get that?

Kerry's vote for the war was as offensive as if he'd voted to restore slavery.

Read the resolution. There was no vote for war:

http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/text/1010res.htm

bush was granted the authority to go to war if certain specific conditions were met. bush lied about his meeting those condidtions and invaded Iraq, not Kerry, Clark, Edwards or Dean. Stop trying to blame Democrats for bush's war.

[Rowdyboy]

17. "Kerry has huge negatives among Democrats" huh? Where?

I think Iowa took the IWR off the table as a serious issue.

[isbister]

21. maybe

but one state does not an election make. I think its way too early to be 100% sure about anything... except maybe that we'll see a good turnout in NH.


Early weather: Snow 25°/3° 60% percip

[mitchum]

13. wrong

[Capn Sunshine]

19. If you think that

you just haven't been paying attention.

By July the War will be SO SO TOXIC people will be ashamed to say they were in the military

That isn't going to help the "war hero " candidates.

[iowapeacechief]

20. If IWR was ever a litmus test, that ended in Iowa.

Iowa could have been about the war, but Dean's claim to be THE "antiwar" candidate didn't fly. Then we saw Kerry's old "antiwar" leader persona coming back and looking pretty good.

Before IWR, the nomination was Kerry's to lose. After IWR we had Braun, Kucinich, and Sharpton--and Dean--claiming the antiwar vote.

Increasingly, we saw most of the others talking generally decent approaches to peace and security and world cooperation, putting ever more distance between themselves and Bush's preemptionism and unilateralism.

Dean could have distinguished himself with a bold if not brilliant plan for getting out of Iraq. Where is it?

Plus, if Kerry's IWR vote was so repugnant, what about Harkin's? And if Teddy Kennedy's anti-IWR vote was a profile in courage... Where's the litmus?

How many independent-thinking Kucinich supporters joined Dean tonight? If this were about the war, wouldn't that have been a no-brainer? Well, it wasn't.

I've been a county coordinator for Kucinich. Dean and Kerry camps both courted me for "when" I would need a second choice. Even Gephardt spoke well of Dennis and the Department of Peace.

Who called this afternoon and crooned sweet nothings about DoP? My Edwards counterpart!

Where has all the litmus gone?