Something to consider about the caucus... "Huge turnout"

[SoCalDem]

I was listening to the callers on c-span, and a common theme was the HUGE turnout.. This am I posted about the fact that republicans and "independents" could attend and possibly skew the results.. I think they may have...

By demoralizing the Dean team and doing it early, they may have hoped to derail his campaign and get everyone fighting within the campaign.. Also what a way to plant doubt....

The last week, it's been bash Dean all the time by EVERY media outlet I have seen..

I guess it's to be expected, but I cannot see how the massive turnout would have been for Edwards or Kerry.. Those candidates uptick in the polls during the last few days was not as significant as the wide spread of victory.. I guess I have my :tinfoilhat: firmly in place, but what if a 25% increase of new Dean voters was expected at the caucuses, but a 60% increase of "elves" showed up and half went for Kerry and the other half for Edwards??

Some of the precints had TRIPLE the amount of people that they expected.. :shrug:

Here are two interesting articles

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/primariescaucus/2004-01-20-caucus-turnout_x.htm

Posted 1/19/2004 10:24 PM Updated 1/20/2004 12:27 AM


Iowa caucus
Candidate Votes % Del

John Kerry
1,128 38% 20
John Edwards
954 32% 18
Howard Dean
540 18% 7
Dick Gephardt
318 11% 0
Dennis Kucinich
39 1% 0
Uncommitted 15 1% 0
Wesley Clark
3 0% 0
Joe Lieberman
0 0% 0
Carol Moseley Braun 0 0% 0
Al Sharpton
0 0% 0

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Posted 1/19/2004 10:24 PM Updated 1/20/2004 12:27 AM




Iowans flock to caucuses; estimates break records
DES MOINES (AP) — The down-to-the-wire campaign helped push turnout in Iowa's kickoff caucuses toward a record Monday night.
At the end of the night, Democratic Party officials estimated that about 122,000 people participated.

Some officials thought Monday's turnout would match or exceed the 1988 record, though the comparison was difficult because official attendance numbers were not kept that year.
Estimates had as many as 125,000 participants in 1988, when Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri won.

Iowa's population is 2.9 million.
Many caucuses started late because participants were still arriving or waiting to get inside. Caucus organizers ran out of voter registration forms at Horace ann School in downtown Iowa City, and about 100 people still were standing in a line that encircled the school at 6:30 p.m.

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This is from the washington Times..(ugh)..BUT it gives us a peek at waht's really up.. The repubes are AFTER DEAN.. They claim that he's not their fear, but I don't think they are telling it straight..
He's the guy who was riding high, with money and the momentum.. It's no surprise that the media has been after him with a vengeance.. They want him neutralized in a hurry.. Kerry has money problems,, Edwards has money problems.. I don't think that Clark scares them much..

Dean is the one they fear...

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http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040119-080830-5568r.htm

Kerry, Edwards lead Iowa caucuses


By Martin Sieff
UPI Senior News Analyst


WEST DES MOINES, Iowa, Jan. 19 (UPI) -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry became the new Comeback Kid, wining in Iowa caucuses Monday night in one of the most dramatic outcomes ever seen.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Kerry had 38 percent, and in a second shock development Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina came in a close second with 32 percent. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who had outstripped all other Democratic candidates in the funds he had raised and with his massive organization, trailed a humiliating third with only 18 percent.

....snip.....

Statewide results confirm trends reported an hour earlier by United Press International from precincts in the West Des Moines, where Kerry and Edwards swept the caucuses. In two precincts at West Des Moines' Valley West High School, Dean supporters appeared stunned by their own small numbers, and the sudden devastating reverse took them totally by surprise.

The results confirmed recent statewide opinion polls that had shown Kerry and Edwards surging, but even these polls had predicted a close four-way race.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[roguevalley]

1. then again, it could be a huge turnout because its ABB. I think that would

be easier to manage. Though, I wouldn't put down the
idea of some infiltration of disrupters. The repugs
have done that since Nixon and before. People just
see the vested interest in ABB, IMHO.

[Punkingal]

2. Oh, shoot!

I hope that wasn't it. I have been so happy tonight about the turnout, because I thought it was ABB turnout. ;(

[pmbryant]

4. Be happy. These were real Dems.

There is no way any supposed 'infiltrators' would vote for Kerry and/or Edwards, two highly viable candidates who could easily beat Bush in the fall.

The huge turnout is something to celebrate, not something to fear.

:bounce:

--Peter

[stickdog]

5. Yes. Iowans, the media and the DLC all found a way to fool Bush & Rove

who obviously favored Dean since they continue to incessantly attack him.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. It's not just pulling a lever or punching a card.

It requires active support. It seems like this is less susceptible to crossover mischief than a regular primary.

[Old and In the Way]

3. I really don't think so.

That would be too much activism for the Right. They may vote for Bush because they vote Republican, but very few would make the effort to really do it.

And look at the results...wouldn't they have chosen the weakest candidate to support? Somehow, I can't believe that they'd be positioning Kerry or Edwards to win over, say, Gephardt or Kucinich. No, I really think the base is energized and motivated to get rid of Bush. Really, I cannot remember, ever the energy I'm seeing in this Party with the focus to oust a Republican incumbant....even Nixon never brought this out.

I've watched CNN since this PM....I still don't think they "get it". People are energized against Bush. I really think we will see a huge turn-out in November.

[sandnsea]

6. We like Kerry-Edwards, we really do

It's real. We like them. It's only natural that when people started to pay attention at the end, they'd see the same thing all the mainstream Democrats I know see. And when people around here tell you Howard Dean makes us all nervous, and I'm being nice, it's true.

[SoCalDem]

7. I have no problem with Kerry or Edwards..

I am not "attached" to any particular candidate.. It just struck me as odd, that the numbers changed so rapidly and the margins were so odd..

I never expected Gephardt or any of the lesser candidates to do well, but knocking off the one with the most money seems to be the way to go, if I were planning their strategy..

The Dean camp has to be beside themselves with second guessing, and a tentative and uncertain demeanor in NH, could burst the bubble, and dry up his money.. a win in Iowa, would have meant lots more contributions and a self confidence that he will not have now..

Kerry has a long record for them to mine..so does Edwards...but Dean was the "x-factor"...and oone with a lot of money and volunteers..

If I were them, I would do anything to neutralize him first.. They have plenty of ammo to pick the others apart with :(

[Old and In the Way]

8. This might be keeping the RNC up all night tonight, SoCalDem

" knocking off the one with the most money seems to be the way to go, if I were planning their strategy.. "

They got lots of money, but will that translate into votes? The turnout was really encouraging, I'm listening to the Republican commentators saying that we can't win on "I hate Bush". I think they know we can win on that...and win big. Then we'll fix the policy problems these criminals have created.

[blm]

15. Scaife already mined that field long before the Arkansas project.

Kerry came out unscathed.

BushInc. tried to tear him down for years during BCCI and IranContra with FBI investigations and taiols. Kerry endured.

[Nazgul35]

14. you mean Iowa does....

once the media circus starts on Kerry Clark and Edwards we will see....and Kerry didn't fair to well last time, he was the front runner that the media declared was uninspiring, boring and hard to look at......and after watching the pudits talk about his victory speach last night...it has started again.....

No one is going to get a free ride.....and I hope they have the resources to go the long haul!

[radfringe]

9. we'll have to wait and see what the other "turnout" numbers

will be for the primaries

some states do allow switching party affiliation at the 'voting booth' and then switch back after voting - if a vote is going to be "freeped" then it would most likely occur in these states

other states require you to go to a court house or request a form to switch parties and it takes several days/weeks for it to be processed - so in these states it would require "freepers" to plan ahead

the other thing to consider - alot of Republicans/Independents are very disappointed with bush* - their attendance at the Iowa Caucus may not be of one to "freep" - but rather to express their disappointment with bush*

with bush* running unopposed by another repub, it is difficult to gauge the "support" he may have from "exit" polls. I understand that the repubs were caucusing in Iowa, I expect those numbers were low because most people figure with only one choice why bother

[IowaBiker]

11. Wake up and rejoice!

The people out tonight were out because they are terrified of George W. Bush.

It's incredible to see it. These were Dems out to show something that can't be revealed in the polls. And it has very little to do with ideology.

BEAT BUSH!

Republicans are just to lazy to sit in line for the half an hour to ninety minutes it took to get in, and for many re-register or change addresses.

I didn't see Republicans. I saw terrified Democrats and Moderates who were out to save their country from the biggest evil to hold office in decades.

Iowans have done this before, as I noted in another post. Our current Governor, a Dem, came from out of nowhere to win his first election against a wing nut.

Quit thinking like a dittohead on this. Really, you are not alone in your justified dislike for the man behind the curtain in the oval office.

Brian

[emulatorloo]

12. Iowans are independent thinkers and *really* meet the candidates

Cheers to you, Iowabiker, for putting it so well! :toast:

It is hard to imagine unless you are here in Iowa, but we really get to see the candidateds up close and have tremendous access to each of them. Kerry and Edwards really impressed people with what they were saying and how they said it.

I focused on Dean and Kerry during this caucus season and saw them each several times. I came away convinced that Kerry would make a great president and had an excellent chance of beating GWB. In spite of all I had heard about Kerry being "stiff and cold," I saw tears welling up in people's eyes as he decimated Bush and talked about his plans for America.

People looked at him, looked at his record, liked what they saw, and stood up for him on caucus night.

[Lady President]

13. Media plan to downplay polls backfired

This is just my opinion, but I think the media's attempt to downplay Kerry and Edwards backfired. Every story in the last two days ended with "but Kerry/Edwards doesn't have a strong enough organization to get people to the caucus." This resulted in a couple things. 1. Supporters decided to get themselves to the caucus and let the media know they didn't need to be coddled. These are the strong-willed people you need to win a caucus. 2. It gave a sense of urgency to Kerry/Edwards supporters. They felt that their effort was especially needed because there might not a large turnout for their candidate. This also hurt Dean because people would have a 'one vote doesn't matter' attitude.

Plus, there are a lot of people who really like Kerry and Edwards. :) They haven't been the hip candidates to support, so their support was underestimated.