main result from Iowa: pundits know nothing more than you & me

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

Tweety, Kondracke, Russert, Stephanopoulos, Schneider, etc.: None of them saw Kerry coming on until they read the polls. None of them predicted Gephardt finishing a very poor fourth. None of them realized how strongly Edwards would finish. The signal lesson: None of them knows any more than you or me. They are well-paid, suit-wearing weathervane watchers. They are as dependent on polls as the average citizen. It is astonishing that anyone listens to them.

Prediction: Last night's and this morning's pundit predictions will not be borne out by N.H. polls late this week. At that point, the punditocracy will regroup and explain that their predictions were based on not knowing unknowables (like the fact that voters can think for themselves) and that now they see a "surge" or "collapse" in candidates A or B. The "surge" or "collapse" will swing the other way by next Tuesday night, however, at which point the pundits will repeat, for the nauseating umpteenth time, that "no one" could have seen happening what ended up happening.

[StClone]

1. Getting the Iowa Low down

I've spoken with my Iowa contacts and this was a an evolving situation right up to the caucus vote. It would have been very difficult to predict this before the vote. That's why they caucus.

Notes:

- Dean's people treated Iowans too much like they were turnip farmers. Telling Iowans "how the Caucus worked and where to vote" was seen as arrogant and rubbed Iowans the wrong way. Iowans knew where to vote they've been around the block often enough. The sites were in their own homes and local restaurants. Leaving Iowa early also hurt Dean. They see Dean as too edgy and having a Doctor-ish pride and too Liberal(!).

- Edwards played it right. Soft ads, smart eloquent style yet earthy with a slight Southern accent that actually plays well in the state.

- Kerry was the choice that by default. He has the military/security appeal. He spent much time in the state. And he has a longer history than Edwards. But Kerry is far from a shoe-in. Iowa is the opening salvo and things will be in flux. Dean will come back add Clark in the mix and this is still got a lot of surprises left.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. What scares me the most is:

What happens if the media pundits give Bush the win in the pre-election poll numbers and there are Republican operates out there tampering with the BBV? What happens if a president gets selected for a second term and the "margin of error" is much greater than the one before?

[el_gato]

3. that's what will happen

it's rigged