Odd how news becomes old in just a coupla days. Here's the future layout

[Bucky]

Remember the Clark surge from two weeks ago? Remember the Moseley Braun endorsement from one week ago? They're ancient history. We get months upon months of the same old same old during the fall and early winter.

But now in a space of ten days the world changes. Things move fast. We'll look back on the two week period starting with the Kerry surge in Iowa, arcing thru the caucuses, the State of the Union address (which is going to be a campaign-shaper, trust me), and closing with whoever catches fire in New Hampshire--and in this arc of time we'll have seen exactly how the race is going to shape up.

Things could go in four different directions now. I'm eager to see which dynamic emerges.

(1) Kerry can continue to not catch on in New Hampshire. A strong Clark showing in NH hurts Edwards, resulting in the old Dean-Clark showdown we've all been expecting. (Based on those last four words, I think this is the least likely scenario). Clark would in no uncertain terms spank the hell out of Dean.

(2) Edwards could catch fire with NH indies at the same time that Kerry Democrats start to come home (probably requires a 2nd place showing for Edwards to formally "catch fire") and elbow both Dean and Clark aside in the south and southwest on Feb 3rd. This would end up in a Kerry-Edwards race with the advantage definitely to Edwards.

(3) One more Dean fizzles scenario: Based on his performance before and after Iowa, Dean might be perceived as an Elmer Gantry character, nothin left but the red face and the dashed ideals of true believers. If he takes 3rd place in NH too, he's dead. If he gets 2nd he's still viable and he still has his bundles of cash. I still don't see Kerry playing well down in the Southland, so the race could become a Kerry-Clark shoot out with a very regional tilt. The balance would be held in California, so that would be the election to see who wins. I think Kerry in the long run would beat Clark.

(4) Dean could see the light, dig in his heels, and rev up his engines, among many other metaphors, and confound the conventional wisdom one more time. Right now he looks like a paper tiger (damn, another metaphor!), but that's just not a palpable reality. He's corny but not frivolous. If Dean can be just a little less Dean and win NH big, I think he'll do so at the expense of Clark and Edwards, not Kerry. If he can maintain momentum into Little Tuesday, the Clark and Edwards campaigns may just split the moderate vote, leaving Dean the activists and Kerry the traditional liberal and blue collar votes. That sets up a Dean-Kerry race, which I think a revitalized Dean can still win.

Shades of rock-paper-scissors.
I'm saying this: Dean beats Kerry, Kerry beats Clark, Edwards beats Dean or Kerry, and Clark beats Dean, but only if Dean beats Edwards.

This should be done as a chart, I think.