After the Shi'ite's "win"

[SHRED]

Shi'ite rule will exact revenge on the Sunnis while cozying up with Iran. The Kurds will push hard for a separate country. Civil war will break out and the USA will withdraw to protecting the oil fields.

Am I getting close?

[Skink]

1. No matter what the exit polls show...

Allawi will remain in power...

[SHRED]

2. Maybe

Then there will be civil war for sure.
He is hated in Iraq.

[Hippo_Tron]

3. I predict serious harassment at the polls

And god knows they may run the election on Diebold machines.

[Kagemusha]

7. The polls only cover Iraqis in Iraq.

See, they're letting exiles in other countries vote too..

And you can bet Allawi has friends there.

[LynnTheDem]

4. Partially.

There is no "Shia-Sunni" animosity, that's rightwingnut bullshit.

The Shia are not as closely aligned to Iran as the Kurds are, so I don't think the Shia will cozy up all that much to Iran.

But the Kurds are ALREADY demanding a UN Referendum on separating and are doing under-the-US-StateMedia-radar ethnic cleansing in Kirkuk.

There isn't likely to be any civil war in Iraq between Shia and Sunni, but quite likely a war between Turkey & the Kurds.

The USA won't withdraw from Iraq until forced to do so; that's what the entire invasion was about. O.I.L.

As so many top US military warned BEFORE bush's Supreme Crime war of aggression;

"We are about to do something that will ignite a fuse in this region that we will rue the day we ever started."

-Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, former Head of Central Command for U.S.

[Still_Loves_John]

5. The best thing really would be

for the Kurds to get their own country. Iraq's boreders were just kind of arbitrarily drawn by the British; they've never really had a national identity and it makes no sense to continue with the current boreders.

[LynnTheDem]

6. For the KURDS that would be the best thing...sort of...

Except that if & when they get their own country they'll be in ful-blown war with Turkey.

While Turkey has been slaughtering Kurds for years now,(and vice versa, and the Kurds are busily killing Turkmen in Kirkuk right now) if it comes to a fullscale war, the Kurds are going to be history.

So in that regard, no it wouldn't be the best thing for the Kurds.

But the Kurds KNOW a fullscale war between them & Turkey would result (assumingly they believe Iran will step in) and they still are demanding a UN referendum on separating, so hey, it's their decision. Let them separate. And then we'll have to invade and occupy Turkey for slaughtering the Kurds.

Round round we go. :eyes:

[jazzjunkysue]

8. Think we'll get a thankyou card from Iran for gifting Iraq to them?

Probly not.

[jazzjunkysue]

9. We don't need no stinkin' elections

I love to hear people say "after the iraq elections" as if there will be any. We'll never see the video of the voters being gunned down in line to vote. And that will be perfect for media evasion: There will be no iraqis out watching the election, and they'll stage a few moments of pretend voting to air on tv, and no one will know that in most areas there was no voter turnout at all. I just hope we'll install the sunni's cause that will set off the civil war faster than anything else.