Perspective on Iowa from my own accidental focus group

[Lydia Leftcoast]

Having seen more Dean signs than any other when I was in Iowa last weekend, I fully expected Howard Dean to come in first, followed by Kerry and Edwards. (I correctly predicted that Gephardt would NOT win.)

I was surprised at the results--until I thought back to a family gathering in an exurban area of the Twin Cities three weeks ago. Present were about 15 relatives, ranging in age from my 92-year-old great aunt to my thirtysomething goddaughter, whose own baby was being baptized that day. The first American generation of this family, of whom my great-aunt is the last survivor, was blue collar and strongly pro-union and Democratic. The second and third generation are mostly college graduates living in the suburbs or small towns. I was the only person at the gathering who lives in an actual city.

The conversation began when a late arrival noted the Kucinich bumpersticker on my car. This started the all-too-familiar conversation in which half the relatives said "Who's that?" and the other half said something like, "I love his ideas, but he can't win." We then moved on to the other candidates. About ten of the people present took part in the conversation.

None of them liked Howard Dean, and the reasons had nothing to do with his policies. They thought he was "slick," "cocky," and "the yuppie candidate."

Kerry got props for being the most experienced candidate, for "looking presidential," and for having "paid his dues."

They found Edwards extremely likable on a personal level, and the same was true of Carol Mosely Braun.

They dismissed Gepahrdt as a "has been," and they were looking at Clark, because they had heard friends say good things about him.

They found Lieberman annoying and enjoyed Al Sharpton's participation in the debates but didn't take him seriously.

We can take great comfort in the fact that they all either hated Bush or said nothing about him. He had no defenderes at that gathering (probably because my Republican brother wasn't there.)

It is also noteworthy that none of them talked much about the issues involved or the types of campaigns that the candidates were pursuing. They seemed to be operating on impressions and background knowledge.

In the light of this conversation, the results from Iowa are not surprising at all.

[lancdem]

1. Fascinating, Lydia

[dsc]

2. Stunning, nothing short of stunning

I really am not intending to offend here but the whole reason we give these people this disproportionate role is that they alledgedly take it so seriously. It sounds like they were auditioning people for American Idol. They get this huge role and use it for that unbelievable.

[MuseRider]

3. Very interesting Lydia.

That is pretty much what I hear around here. Edwards may get a surge now, it will be interesting to see how this starts to turn. Time for people to wake up and start paying attention, it will be fun to see how this all turns.

[stickdog]

4. The Dean campaign has been running at full steam for so long that

they seem to have forgotten that very few Iowans were really paying close attention for the past year and that they needed to introduce themselves very politely to the vast, unengaged, TV watching, newspaper scanning voters.

Instead they acted like they were unbeatable (a la Bush), that they were entitled to victory (a la Kerry when he first started to slide), and then demanded props for being the first to stand up to Bush rather than the best to stand up to Bush (which had been Dean's most obvious strength all along).

[suegeo]

5. What arguments does your brother use?

It just astonishes me that someone could support Bush after all that has gone on.

The media has really done a number on our democracy.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

6. Alas, he drives around all day for his job

(he is a sales rep for a major wholesaler), and it's pretty obvious that he listens to rightwing talk radio, so he don't need no stinkin' arguments. He just replays the tape that his been bored into his brain.

[SheilaT]

7. Sigh

Your family is probably all too typical of the majority of people out there.

I cannot begin to fathom why people think Dean is unelectable. Based on what? I keep on saying that all of the top four or five are electable in a free, fair, and honest election. The big question is will we get such an election in November.

The other huge question is how long will we Democrats collectively take to settle on a nominee, and can we do it without tearing the party apart in the process?

[Lydia Leftcoast]

8. They think Dean's unelectable

because they don't like the vibes he gives off. It's as simple as that.

They think Kucinich is unelectable because the big boys will never let anyone like him win.