National exit poll shows Kerry lead over Bush by 3%

[Time for change]

This information is obtained from a key link from a post in the Election 2004 Forum:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=214701&mesg_id=214701

I thought that it would be important to post this information here, because the above post has a massive amount of information on it, and this is an attempt to sum up some of the key points. I also think that this is very cool and interesting information, and deserves wide circultation.

One of the key links is a paper by Jonathon Simons:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/PopularVotePaper181...
This paper points out that Kerry's lead in the final national exit poll, with 13,047 respondents, was 2.6%, and that the probability of the discrepancy between this and the official vote tally (2.8% in favor of Bush) happening by chance was close to a million to one. It also provides some of the explanations (but certainly not all of them) why the exit polls are probably a more likely reflection of voter intent than the official vote tally.

Here is the site of the full national exit poll data, updated to 7:33 on Tuesday evening:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/U...
It shows Kerry with a 3% lead nationally (rounded to nearest percent), and contains 11,027 respondents.

Here is a summary of the demongraphic groups that helped put Kerry over the top. I have four columns in this table. The first lists the Demographic group. The second lists the percent of the poll sample that contained that demographic group. The third lists the spread for Kerry contained in that Demographic group (for example, if 60% voted for Kerry and 40% voted for Bush, the margin would be 20%). The fourth column lists the vote margin provided by that demographic group. That percent is obtained by multiplying columns 2 and 3 (for example, if females provided 50% of the sample, and their vote spread for Kerry was 10%, then the margin provided for Kerry by females would be 50% X 10% = 5%)

Group-------- % in sample----- Spread for K----- Margin for K
Female------- 54% ------------- 9% -------------- 4.9%
Black-------- 11% ------------ 80% -------------- 8.8%
<$15,000 inc.- 9% ------------ 33% -------------- 3.0%
Union house-- 24% ------------ 23% -------------- 5.5%
Postgrad deg. 17% ------------ 18% -------------- 3.1%
Democrat----- 38% ------------ 81% ------------- 30.8%
Liberal------ 22% ------------ 74% ------------- 16.3%
Moderate----- 45% ------------ 16% -------------- 7.2%
Jewish-------- 4% ------------ 54% -------------- 2.2%
Non-Evangel.- 78% ------------ 20% ------------- 15.6%
Occas relig.- 40% ------------ 13% -------------- 5.2%
No relig at.- 15% ------------ 32% -------------- 4.8%
Not military- 82% ------------- 7% -------------- 5.7%
Not married-- 38% ------------ 22% -------------- 8.4%
Gays---------- 4% ------------ 53% -------------- 2.1%
No gun in h.- 59% ------------ 20% --------------11.8%
Dec. last mo. 21% ------------ 15% -------------- 3.1%

[Skittles]

the bastards stole the election

they know it and we know it

[Ironpost]

3. The sad part is we knew it was going to happen,

and we didn't do anything to stop it. Not sure we coulda' but we shoulda' tried.

[catgirl]

5. Ohio tried to prevent it

Ohio dems went to court to contest voting machines without paper trails & were shot down. The Deibold machine owners statements were also questioned (he claimed he would deliver Ohio to Bush). I agree more should have been done, like massive protests!

[zann725]

8. Kerry won, Bush lied!

Spread the word!

[Skittles]

1. the bastards stole the election

they know it and we know it

[katinmn]

2. Thanks for the executive summary

makes it easier to go in and look at all of it with an inkling of what it all means.

The MSM's efforts to hide this is proof of complicity. But they are so "embedded" with the * regime, it really should come as no surprise.

They will keep painting us as loonies but we will win. The truth will win out.

[saltpoint]

4. Bush cheated.

His fixers pulled the levers in the backrooms and boardrooms and alleyways and made it happen.

Let's hope the karmic boomerang swings 'round real soon and knocks the little puke on his worthless ass.

[Wright Patman]

6. Apparently George Soros

cares more about the outcome of elections in former Soviet republics and satellite states than he does the one in this country.

How is what happened any different than what supposedly happened in Ukraine which required an entirely new election?

[oscar111]

7. Errors here? Stolen, yes, but want this cleared up

agreed, stolen and i want to see REVOTE, not merely recount.

But i would like to see some apparent errors here cleared up so i can argue in a bulletproof way.

the Orig Post says 7 pm data fm Nov 2, yet also calls it all FINAL data.. which would be about nine or ten pacific time, yes?

TIA, renouned poster at DU, said IIRC, that final exit polls as released to the public, were probush. TIA uses eight pm exit polls and argues that the final exit polls were fiddeled with to change them from {probably} proKerry to proBush. So how can the orig post here say the final exits were proKerry. Or did i miss something? Apologies if i did .

If we are to win arguments, we must keep all facts straight. I am just trying to make facts from TIA and here, come into agreement.

I need to get these facts straight , not quarreling with the thrust of "we been robbed" We WERE robbed. We need rallies and a REVOTE.

[Time for change]

9. This is a little difficult to explain

Sometime after 1:00 a.m. on November 3rd, CNN "adjusted" their exit polls to fit the official vote tally. These polls cannot be taken seriously as reflecting the actual vote.

Some people feel that the purpose of the "adjustment" was to defraud the public. That may be so, but I am willing to give it a more benign interpretation until proven otherwise: Adjustments to polls are sometimes made to maintain the relative percentages of all the demographic groups, while changing the final numbers to reflect what are believed to be the "real" numbers. In this case, what are believed to be the "real" numbers are the offical vote tally numbers.

Anyhow, I have never heard anyone contend that the "adjusted" CNN exit poll numbers reflect the actual exit poll depiction of the final presidential results. There is no way anyone can contend that because there are numerous screen shots, many of them posted on the DU, that showed the real exit poll numbers after 1:00 a.m. on November 3rd, and these were radically different than the "adjusted" numbers that were posted minutes later. For example, EOTE posted a screen shot of the Ohio exit poll shortly after 1:00 a.m. on November 3rd showing Kerry up by 6 among women and 2 among men. Yet, the "adjusted" exit poll appeared a minute later, showing Kerry behind among both women and men. The screen shot that EOTE posted included the final sample size number, so there is no way that the results could have changed so radically by the adding of additional data. Rather, they were "adjusted".

[kamqute]

10. For me, at least, all the links are broken 'cept on DU

[Time for change]

11. Too bad

Well, at least there are numerous DU members who saved the key stories. I printed out the two that I included in my thread, and numerous others have saved other parts, electronically, and/or on paper.