Ethnic Composition of the New Iraqi Army

[DistressedAmerican]

There is a lot of talk about how civil war is one possibility in the situation in Iraq. I suspect that a state of civil war exists right now and that it is simply not acknowledged because we are still there aiding one side.

I am wondering if anyone has any information on the ethnic makeup of the new Iraqi forces.

My gut feeling is that these forces are primarily Shiite (backed by the US)and that the insurgents are primarily Sunnis. The Kurds as I understand it are functionally fairly independent with their own troops still intact but kept in the box by Washington who does not want them to get involved. Does anyone have any info/links on this? I'd really appreciate it.

The end result of the coming elections will be a primarily Shiite led government writing a constitution. This will occur with or without Sunni participation in the election. As I see it they have little to loose continuing to fight beyond this election, beyond the next and until they gain autonomy.

Any thoughts on why the administration has insisted on maintaining the current political borders rather that setting up three separate states? It seems like splitting it up could go a long way to ending the inter-ethnic violence.

[annabanana]

1. from what I understand

(and relative to some DU experts it's not that much)

There would be some serious problems with the neigbors if there was partition. Turkey specifically has a large Kurdish population that might fight to join a Kurdish state.
I've also heard, (though I'm skeptical) of concerns with Iranian influence with the Shi'ite majority, but since one population is Arab and the other Persian, this is less likely.

[DistressedAmerican]

2. I had forgotten about the Southern Turkey Issue

That is a bit of a fly in the ointment. I do wonder what Bush thinks he owes them at this point as they refused our every bribe and threat when it came time to move an armored division through. Where we flying from there. It seems to me we were allowed to fly non-combat missions?

Rumor is that the Iranian influence is present now among certain subsets of the Shiite population. At least that was among the "reporting" during the fighting in Najaf and the south. Any chance Iran would be destabilized in the same way as Turkey?

Man its troubling...

[annabanana]

3. I'm guessing that the Iraq/Iran thing

Is being ginned up by the B*shistas to justify a little pre-emption into Iran. I don't think the neo-cons will be satisfied with their current f*ck ups.

There are some brilliant folks on this board. I hope you can get some of them to chime in with a little more in depth info.

[DistressedAmerican]

4. You are probably right

I have thought for a long time that if one time Bush screwed up and answered a reporter's question on his exit strategy he would suggest we just roll on into Iran. Heck, we have them boxed in on two sides. In any military board game (risk for example) that territory is yours almost by default.

I have mixed feelings on the ability of the Neo-Conmen to push another war through for a while though. After the Iraq mess Americans are going to be a bit more wary. Until the next attack on the United States. I'm sure all bets are off then.

Can anyone else help us out here? I have been browsing between posts and still find very little. Maybe that's the reason for the silence. Help!

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

5. Troops are apparently of predominantly Shiite stock

The media often mentions that these mass executions or bombings of Iraqi police or National Guard soldiers hit people going back, e.g., to places like Najaf or Basra-- which are predominantly Shiite. The Kurds have been used as troops in, for example, the Fallujah operation and in Mosul, but this is a dangerous strategy since it aggravates ethnic conflict in divided cities like Kirkuk and Mosul. Besides, I don't think the Kurds want to lose too many soldiers in the Iraqi police and army-- they probably foresee a civil war, and they want to save their best-trained peshmerga soldiers for a drive for their independent state. This would probably lead to conflict with Turkey as well, so the Kurds are loath to lose their best soldiers to suicide bombs and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi guerrilla attacks.

[DistressedAmerican]

6. Sounds like what I was think

There are Sunni insurgents killing Shiite troops and their American Allies. The Kurds are biding their time. That sure sounds like a state of civil war to me. That being the case, I think it would be advisable to stop talking about how our presence there is stopping a civil war from breaking out. It has broken out and we are in the middle.

[RafterMan]

7. The partition idea sounds cute

until you start trying to draw a map.

Who, for instance, gets Baghdad?

[DistressedAmerican]

8. It isn't like Baghdad is Jerusalem

Give it to the Sunnis. The Shiites holiest city is Najaf that could certainly be a workable capital. I don't think the Kurds would be too put out by that.

The real sticking point I see is the oil fields in the north and south. That would be harder to deal with.