So what did Dean do wrong?

[waylon]

I havent seen any threads ask this question. Was there a particular gaffe that turned the tides or was it a combination? Or..smoething else?

I was under the impression that he had a HUGE following. Did his supporters turn on him or was his support base exaggerated?

I cant see how he could drop so fast in a week's time. More importantly, what should be learned from it?

[mmonk]

1. Don't know if he did anything wrong

[Dhalgren]

2. I think this is a good question.

And no flame bait, please. The one thing that everyone said was Dean's big "thing" was his grassroots organization. In a caucus setting, grassroots orgs. are supposed to shine. What happened? Was his support shallow? Was this an Iowa aberation?

[Hep]

3. It's all up to perspective

On the one hand, it became overwhelmingly clear that the people of Iowa were willing to allow Dean to be defined (by the media and his opponents) for them rather than letting Dean define himself or coming up with their own.

Also, Dean burned some bridges for himself, some deservedly, some not.

There are other things. But this isn't bad. Like Dean said, a year ago, 3 delegates would be GREAT. Not all Dean supporters bought into the polls.

[DrZhivago]

4. I don't think he did anything

he was just ahead of everybody way too early and had every other candidate as well as republicans gang up on him. Who knows he might bounce back

[lancdem]

9. True

and the early front-runner often isn't the one who wins the nomination, historically speaking.

[lovedems]

5. Surprisingly, I think he focused to much on the war

I would think that would be the right thing to do. A majority of Americans are angry about the war. It should be the front issue during the campaign. According to Iowa which is representative of "Middle America" I think they wanted more.

This is just a comment from a family member who is a life long democrat, he feels that Dean's anti-war stance is a little bit shaky because while others were fighting in vietnam, he was skiing. He is not anti-Dean AT ALL but he is a Captain in the reserves and that does have an effect on him. He will vote ABB.

[lancdem]

6. My theory is

Dean did well when no one was really paying attention to the race except his strong supporters. Once caucus-goers began focusing, they looked at all the candidates. It was inevitable the race would tighten, but I confess I'm shocked Kerry and Edwards pulled away like they did.

[Dr.Phool]

27. I think thats true

I was an early Dean supporter and I still am. But last month at the Florida convention, we had all the candidates there. Howard Dean stole the show, but I came away with a new respect for both Kerry and Edwards.

Also, not to be overlooked, but Dean has been attacked from everywhere, daily for over a month.

I truly hope that Dean doesn't self-destruct, but I saw a clip on TV yesterday where he was chastising a group of reporters for their conduct at a MLK service. I don't know what they did or didn't do, but it played right into the "angry candidate" profile. I think the media is starting to turn on him worse than they did Gore. And unfortunately, Howards not doing much to rectify it.

[Shrek]

7. Here's an interesting take from a blogger

From the James Lileks blog:

I have to note that I am not surprised Dean got pasted in Iowa. Why? Because this was IOWA, for heaven’s sake. It’s the Midwest. We can tell when someone is getting carried away with himself, and we know what to do: shun him, kindly. It wasn’t so much the substance of Dean’s recent comments; it was the persona behind him. I can imagine a nice Iowa lady of a certain age, sitting in a coffee shop, enjoying her pie, watching the TV crew pack up after Doctor Dean had blown in and out of Bev’s Chatterbox Cafe. “Well, he certainly does think well of himself,” she might have thought. Translation: she wouldn’t spit on his face if his nose was on fire.

This was not a rejection of the Dean message. This was a rejection of the messenger. He has only himself to blame; this race was his to lose, and he lost it. He inhaled his own vapors. Iowans decided that they wanted a second opinion - and I think New Hampshire voters will concur. But what do I know.

Not completely sure I agree, but interesting nonetheless.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[lancdem]

14. I think that attitude is what Lileks was referring to

Condescension isn't a good campaign tactic.

[lovedems]

17. I think that is totally uncalled for.

I hope you feel better now that you have insulted the entire state of Iowa.

[tjdee]

19. Bashing Iowa and Iowans is a great idea!

Maybe we can do that for every state that doesn't vote for the candidate of our choice!

:eyes:

[EllieDem]

24. Actually the people DID

clean the pig shit out of their ears and shockingly heard Dean say crazy things like "I will withhold judgment on Bin Laden's guilt".....(even when Bin Laden has confessed and this isn't a "trial") and then they further cleaned out their ears and heard Kerry so eloquently ask: "Governor, what WERE you thinking?????"

[Nicholas_J]

33. Yup

And also heard about how Vermont lost 2 small family dairy farms a day while he was Governor, and how 70 percent of all Vermont farms were small family farms when he became Governor in 1991, and only 56 percent of them were small family farms by the time he left office, and how he was considered to be largely responsible for the explosion of urban sprawl in Vermont, as well as virtually destroying small vermont egg farms by by cutting a deal with Lucien Breton to set up "The Vermont Egg Factory"

Or perhaps they didnt like the fact that he tried to attribute Bob Kerrey's vote on Harkin's bill to assist small Iowa Family farms to John Kerry, refused to apologize for having done so after it was discovered that he was doing so, and not only refused to retract the statements, but continued distributing leaflets with the information in it in New Hampshire after he was caught doing it.

Even after a number of Iowa legislators placed large advertisements in Iowa Newspapers to make Iowa voters aware of Deans sorry behavior in this case, Dean still would not retract the statements, resulting in the Iowa Agriculture commissioner endorsing Kerry and also reproaching Dean for his behavior.

Perhaps Iowans just have highly developed bullshit detectors.

[artr2]

35. And Kerry what were you thinking when YOU voted ...

To bend over and give bush his war??? We are not going to beat bush with someone who voted for the war. Very simple and the truth

[Nicholas_J]

39. Fortunately

It seems like the Iowans who largely opposed the war, do not beleive the tripe about either Kerry or Edwards voting for the War, and have disavowed Dean attempts to falsely attribute the vote on the IAuthorization of use of Force in Iraq Act (Th word war is nowhere used in the resolution), while Dean supported the Biden-Lugar Amendment which contained absolutely no requirements for the president to have to try to make a case through diplomatic channels and exhaust peaceful methods though the United Nations first. Biden-Lugars wording merely stated that the president get international support for the war, and all that was necessry for congressional support was for the president to write letters to the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate Pro Tempore stating that he has suspicions that Iraq presents a reasonable threat to the United States or U.S. interests.

Also on September 29, 2002, Deans statements about what he thought should be done wer4e exactly the same actions that George Bush engaged in, except for the fact that George Bush waited almost 5 months to go to war and Howard Dean would have only given the United Nations as little as 30 days to enforce its own resolutions and for Saddam to disarm, and no more than 60 days:

FTN - 09/29/02
WASHINGTON...


DEAN: Sure, I think the Democrats have pushed him into that position and the Congress, and I think that's a good thing. And I think he is trying to do that. We still get these bellicose statements.

Look, it's very simple. Here's what we ought to have done. We should have gone to the U.N. Security Council. We should have asked for a resolution to allow the inspectors back in with no pre-conditions. And then we should have given them a deadline saying "If you don't do this, say, within 60 days, we will reserve our right as Americans to defend ourselves and we will go into Iraq."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/30/ftn/printable523726.shtml


and now for a repeat of this statement February

Salon: On the campaign trail with the un-Bush


"As I've said about eight times today," he says, annoyed -- that Saddam must be disarmed, but with a multilateral force under the auspices of the United Nations. If the U.N. in the end chooses not to enforce its own resolutions, then the U.S. should give Saddam 30 to 60 days to disarm, and if he doesn't, unilateral action is a regrettable, but unavoidable, choice.


http://www.howardsmusings.com/2003/02/20/salon_on_the_campaign_trail_with_the_unbush.html

Perhaps Iowans just expect consistancy in an candidate, rather than political posturing. Someone who is not just saying whatever they thing the voters want to hear in order to get their votes, and will later go back on what they stated during their campaign, as a number of progressive and liberal democrats note being common behavior on the part of Dean:

Howard Dean: the Progressive Anti-War Candidate?
Some Vermonters Give Their Views...

I know that a lot of you are going to vote for Dean -- he talks a good game; he can be charismatic and charming. But I'm warning you. This man will tell you what you want to hear, or at least tell you something that has some little kernel of something that you can interpret as support for the things that are important to you. But when the time comes to stand up and lead on the issue, to take on the money interests and backsliders in his own party, that stiff little spine will turn into a slinky.

If you vote for him, it's your job to stand behind him with a poker and keep him headed in the right direction. Don't give him any honeymoon period, either--keep the pressure on from the second you drop that ballot in the box. The minute you relax, he's going to turn right back into what he really is...a privileged, arrogant, middle of the road republican. Put your political energy into getting some truly progressive folks into the House and Senate, and into State legislatures around the country so that there will be more pressure from more directions. We need to get together our sophisticated progressive thinkers to develop policy ideas in every area, so that we're ready with real, well-thought out counter-proposals for the incremental changes a Dean administration might put forth. If you feel you must, support Dean, do--but then go do the work necessary to make real change.


http://www.counterpunch.org/jacobs08292003.html

Iowa being farm country seems to have given Iowans the ability to recognize caca de vaca.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

13. Lileks has turned into a rightwinger

(I knew him 20 years ago when he was always making snide remarks about Reagan), but I think he's right here. Please see my thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=146298

[chiburb]

18. Consider your source...

Lileks, while a good writer, is EXTREMELY right wing. He MAY have a point, but I suspect he's also 'piling on' while the Dr. is down.
And to think I once donated $20 to his blog...

[AP]

23. 'rejecting messenger not message' -- I think the messenger is the message

with Dean.

I've said this dozens of times in the last 10 hours: he didn't have a tax plan! If you don't have a tax plan in 2004, what is your message?

[goodhue]

28. Lileks is dead on!

This comedic MN writer has nailed it here.

[Hoosier Democrat]

8. This Dean Supporter was Surprised

Here's what I think happened:

1. Dean and Gephardt savaging each other raised Edwards profile as
a "Nice Guy" alternative (and justifiably so)

2. John Kerry brought $6 million of his own money AND Ted Kennedy to Iowa to give himself a transfusion

3. John Kerry stumbled on a new and interesting fact: VETERANS VOTE

4. Some of Dean's comments lately have crossed the line from "Maverick" to just "Boneheaded" (the Iowa caucuses are dominated by extremists, for example)

5. Dean's crowds may have been deceptively large due to out-of-state supporters coming to Iowa in droves to help out.

6. The complete frontal assault on Dean from every news outlet in the country

Oh, well, on to New Hampshire and The General!

[lancdem]

12. You make some good points

I also think I read somewhere that some Iowans resented the out-of-staters who came in to campaign for Dean. I dunno.

[CMT]

10. the slugfest between Gep and Dean

harmed them both--Gep particularly, but Dean as well.

The interesting thing is that in the Des Moine Register poll in November Dean had 20% the same percentage he had in the last Register poll released on Saturday, He ended up with 18% so it could be argued that he didn't lose alot of his support, but Gep who had 27% in the Nov. Register poll and 18% in Saturdays poll ended up with about 11%.

Undecideds broke strongly for Kerry and Edwards--in part, imo, becuz of the negativity of the Gep-Dean campaign.

[AP]

15. He's inconsistent and he had the wrong priorities.

He wanted you to think his hatred for Bush (which is a very personal thing) and the IWR were the most important issues -- way more important than a tax plan which would be fair to people who work for a living (which he couldn't be bothered to write down BEFORE the election). If you're not talking about feeling the pain (economic) of Americans, you should just forget about it.

Furthermore, there were too many contradictions between what he things know and what he did as Governor.

[dreissig]

16. Speeding Trees

Preference measurement schemes often have hidden weaknesses, including a tendency to produce nonsensical results. Iowans probably don't rank John Kerry above Howard Dean. And Edwards is still a nobody. Apparently, the people who met him liked him a lot. And Dean didn't "read" well among the people who vote in the Iowa caucuses.

The measuring instrument is at fault when your speed meter clocks a tree at 35 mph in a 25 mph zone. Don't commission studies or enact special legislation to deal with the problem of speeding trees.

[LuminousX]

20. The Post-Mortem is still being done

Many people want to jump on the Gephardt-Dean negative ads as the explanation. In my heart, I want to accept that because it is a nice pat explanation.

In politics, unlike science, the simplest answer is rarely the correct one. I believe the Dean campaign started believing their own press too much. The got the structure right but failed to give it content people cared about. Focusing too much on Iraq and not enough on jobs, economy, and healthcare.

Any campaign that goes negative is going to suffer consequences though. When Kerry was negative against Dean, Kerry suffered. When Dean went negative against Gephardt and Kerry in Iowa, Dean suffered. Voters are truly tired of this crap. I do believe that is why, with little ground organization, Edwards pulled in a huge percentage: he hasn't been negative with anyone.

The Dean campaign needs to fine tune their message and do a full audit of their campaign to make sure the grassroot resources are being applied in effective ways. They also need to do more work in crafting image. Dean needs to adopt the image of a winner, of a President. He needs to start acting, right now, like the President. He needs to separate rallies from 'political moments' like concession speeches.

[grannyb]

21. He's lacking that vision thing.

No one is going to defeat Bush by his negatives alone. The person that beats him will have to not only tell the voter why they should not vote for Bush but why they should vote for him. while raging against Bush may invigorate we shrub haters it won't work on the gen population. Dean just shows too much anger. We need someone who can inspire. Heck we need Bill Clinton!

[Orangepeel]

22. become the frontrunner

Dean has not run a perfect campaign (there's no such thing) and has made mistakes (as does everyone).

But what really happened, IMO, was the same thing that happened to Gore in 2000 and will happen to our nominee (whether it is Dean or someone else). He couldn't withstand the constant barrage of negative stories (some justified, most trivial or even completely bogus).

I'm very, very disappointed this morning and I'm running really short of hope for November. Not because Dean did poorly in Iowa, but because I was counting on the ability of grassroots to overcome media spin. It looks like it couldn't.

[adamrsilva]

25. Being the frontrunner

for so long. He was just crucified for the last six months. Who could overcome that?

[goodhue]

26. my take

His Act I as anti-war candidate raking in online contributions played well.

But Act II as stay-the-course in Iraq and rack up mainstream endorsements was not so inspiring.

He should have been consistent -- if it was wrong to go to war with Iraq, it is wrong to stay there. Also, he could have been all over the governance issues in Iraq by calling for direct elections but he stayed away. He acknowledged that US would occupy for years and he started hanging out with Al Gore and acting like the front runner.

The endorsements became very transparent in their timing and began to look somewhat desperate and contrived. Harkin and CMB in particular played poorly. He was apparently trying to build on the momentum of his inevitability as nominee but it don't work. He became an angry insider rather than an angry outsider.

Meanwhile, Kerry and Edwards worked the warm fuzzies and folks in Iowa started paying attention to Dean's personality.

I don't think yesterday was a rejection of liberal or anti-war positions. Rather a rejection of Dean Act II and concern over his likeability.

[eileen from OH]

29. He campaigned in a primary but the media hype turned it into the general

Really. We all know that candidates tailor their messages differently in a primary campaign vs a general. General is much more centrist, rhetoric is toned down, etc. The media hype of IA turned it into a general referendum. THAT'S what Kerry and Edwards realized and adjusted their message to. Dean and Gephardt did not.

eileen from OH

[markus]

32. No, he ran in a caucus that turned into a primary

That was the biggest mistake.

There were others of message, that cost him the swing voters when it happend, but they're all of a piece.

[joefree1]

30. He challenged the status quo

And he's not done yet.

Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300

[goodhue]

31. no

Challenging the status quo is what he did right. Becoming the status quo is what he did wrong.

[democratreformed]

34. My opinion - wrong message

His message did not resonate with me or, apparently many Iowa voters either. Perhaps it will in other locations.

[BurtWorm]

36. Scared a lot of powerful Democrats.

Now they seem to be working extra hard to make sure he's not the nominee.

[Zomby Woof]

37. His supporters

Dean inflicts a lot of his own wounds, but I can only imagine his supporters in Iowa pissing people off with overzealotry and arrogance - that sense of entitlement they have everywhere they go. After all, he was leading in the Iowa polls very very recently. The smugness set in, and bam! Good ol' Iowan common sense prevailed.

It is FAR from over, but the facade of invulnerability has been erased. I have long predicted Dean would do his own campaign in. Not the other Democrats, not the media, not Rove or other boogeymen. Only Dean himself.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

38. Anger is an emotion in play for those ruminating about the past

he got people too focused on the past. He didn't com across as visionary being focused on the past. People already know the past and present are fucked up..it is the FUTURE they are concerned about.

While I ALSO want my country back, repeating that ad infinitum harkens the image of a toddler kicking and screaming on the floor.