Can Howard Dean REALLY beat Bush?

[Frederic Bastiat]

Yesterdays Iowa caucus results reinforced my initial doubts about the success of a Howard Dean candidature.

How could Dean, the candidate with the most MONEY, who has campaigned the LONGEST and has a virtual army of volunteers and over 200,000 handwritten letters not even get 20% of Iowa Democrats to vote for him?

What makes you think that he can beat Bush and the Rethug machine?

[afraid_of_the_dark]

1. Anyone could beat Bush...

They just need to carry a big stick around with them.

[Gman]

2. Not any more than Dukakis could beat Bush I

or McGovern could beat Nixon, or even Mondale could beat Reagan.

[funky_bug]

4. The most troubling quote...

I heard last night was on C-SPAN. I was listening, not watching, so please forgive me for not mentioning who said it...

But one of the reporters said, "Iowa looked at Howard Dean, and they did not see a president."

Be warned - the press has slammed Dean to the point where they can do little more damage. The cameras are upon us now... and with soundbytes like the aforementioned, who NEEDS Rove to tear us down???

[cthrumatrix]

5. and you believe TV..... i guess the polls saw different before..DUHH

[funky_bug]

8. Did you read my post?

I specifically said that what the media said was troubling. Where you take that as "me believing the media" is beyond me. My reasons for supporting a candidate other than Dean have NOTHING to do with the media. This is the same media that tells me every day what a great guy Bush the Lesser is. Don't think I don't that.

[BurtWorm]

13. "who NEEDS Rove to tear us down???"

I hear you! The problem is, bad blood breeds bad blood, and bloodlessness breeds no passion at all. This is where the Democratic Party seems to be at this moment. But it's just this moment.

[Davis_X_Machina]

3. In a fair fight...

...I've got things growing in my crisper drawer that can beat Bush.

Now, who do we have who's most likely to win in an unfair fight, that's the question.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

9. You have to be realistic. It isn't going to be easy and we need to pick

the BEST candidate we can to go up against Bush. Let's not forget - this will not be a "fair" election - both with media coverage and with the voting machines. We can't afford to be overly-confident. We must get BushCo. out before this country becomes a fascist dictatorship. We can't afford to "play games" in this election - It's DEADLY serious.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

10. Whoohoo! Finally hit the 1000 mark!

n/t

[maddezmom]

12. congrats :) n/t

[Cuban_Liberal]

6. Who knows?

Iowa won't resemble the GE; the mechanics are entirely different, as are the demographics. I think a ham sandwich could beat Bush, some days.

[OneBlueSky]

7. I honestly don't believe that he can . . .

in a world so chaotic, and with America's foreign affairs in such a mess, the voters are simply not going to elect someone with no foreign policy or military experience . . . Democrats understand this, I believe, and it's a large part of why Kerry won in Iowa . . . the eventual nominee will be one of the two candidates with the most foreign policy and military experience, i.e. Kerry or Clark . . .

[Quixote1818]

11. Kerry or Clark

I agree and I think in the end Clark will win as things head south and west whear Clark is already leading big and no one knows who Kerry is.

[John_H]

14. The voters of Iowa confirmed the obvious

[Jerseycoa]

15. No, as so many of us have been saying for months

He campaigned longer and harder than any other candidate in Iowa, had the biggest endorsement, spent the most, and had his troops on the ground and in the mail and on the phone into every corner of Iowa. And still managed to lose by 20% to John Kerry who had been so down even those who like him thought he was out. Howard Dean has his loyal base and that's all he's got. They really like Howard Dean, but nobody else does. He would make the worst possible candidate against Bush in every way I can think of. If this party sends Dean against a sitting president, we lose.

[funky_bug]

16. Last time I checked the polls

Any Democrat - 45%
Bush - 43%

Hell, YES, Dean can beat Bush!

[IndianaGreen]

17. Can any Democrat beat Bush?

Tonight Bush is going to appear as the sensible nation's leader. He will give his SOTUS which will give an upbeat vision of the future. None of the media outlets will bother to compare this SOTUS with the one he gave a year ago, and all the lies he told. I don't expect the official Democratic response to do that either!

If you want to see the SOTUS response that Democrats should be giving, go to the MoveOn website:

Dear MoveOn member,

A year ago, President Bush told the nation that "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa." It wasn't true, of course, but it did serve as a critical piece of the spin campaign that led the country into war.

Tonight, in preparation for the upcoming election, the President is again getting ready to tell the nation something that simply isn't true. According to news reports, the President will declare victory in the fight to provide the nation's elderly and disabled with health care. He'll point to the Medicare bill that he and Congressional Republicans pushed through Congress. But there's one small problem: the Medicare bill won't help Medicare, and it won't help seniors. In fact, it's designed to do the program in.

That's why we've prepared a 30-second alternative version of tonight's speech which exposes how the nation's drug companies backed and bought this bill. We've asked one of the country's most respected polling firms to test the ad, and we know it makes an enormous impact on the people who see it. But we'll need your help to get it out there. If you can help us reach our $10 million goal, we'll put up a $1.7 million buy and make sure millions of Americans in swing states know the real deal.

You can watch the ad and contribute by credit card or check at:
https://www.moveonvoterfund.org/donate/sotu.html?id=2275-3134665-89BylJdxgHYIn0NC4xvF1A

[LandOLincoln]

20. Wes Clark is doing post-SOTUS Commentary

on ABC tonight. I suspect he'll cover all of these points, but some reminders couldn't hurt.

www.forclark.com

[fob]

18. Candidature? Forget it, he's rolling.

Dean's candidacy and the Iowa caucus is no more a predictor of Dean v. bush* than if Punxatawney Phil sees his shadow is a predictor.

The Iowa caucus race shows that you may be the frontrunner today, but that's all you can say. There is also a huge difference between 20% of Iowa caucus-goers and 20% of Iowa Democrats.

Any Democrat can beat bush*, here's how, get the nomination!

[LTR]

19. It's possible,

But far from easy.

My gut says that he will do slightly better than Dukakis, but remember, the biggest aim is for middle America. That means the undecideds and people that are open to a different president, but have no concrete reasons for hating Bush. Believe it or not, that is a lot of people.

Dean needs to simmer down his act is he becomes the nominee. Otherwise, the GOP will tear him apart and the middle ground will be turned off.

[On the Road]

21. Not After Last Night

I don't mean the third-place finish, I mean being branded as a madman.

This has become the conventional wisdom. No one in all the coverage last night said: "Hey wait a minute! I liked that speech. It was perfectly appropriate under the circumstances." Perception = political reality.

It will have to be another guy. Personally, I don't see the fiber there. Even Clark. Despite the fact that Clark may be the best executive, he's also the most out of his element in a presidential campaign. I think he would make a good president, but I expect him to struggle to score points against Bush.

[LuminousX]

22. Ah yes, let's hammer the 'electability' thing some more

Call me when you get a new drum to pound on.

[Frederic Bastiat]

23. Why? Do you think it is irrelevant?

Please shed some light.