Dean holding steady in NH, Kerry overtakes Clark for 2nd

[Freddie Stubbs]

Jan 16-18 Jan 17-19

Clark 20% 19%
Dean 28% 28%
Edwards 8% 8%
Gephardt 3% 3%
Kerry 19% 20%
Kucinich 1% 2%
Lieberman 6% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0%
Other 0% 0%
Undecided 15% 13%

Sample size 617 617

Democrats 432 436
Undeclared 185 181
Undeclared (%) 30% 29%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[returnable]

1. Key bit of info:

"The interviews for January 19 were completed before the results from Iowa were known."

[maddezmom]

2. tomorrow will be more telling of the bump from Iowa n/t

[CMT]

3. Dean supporters

expect Kerry to close in on Dean, but don't get discouraged, this should be expected. Dean may even lose his lead briefly, but if he campaigns hard and effectively this week, he can keep his solid supporters and still win NH. Kerry, Edwards, and Clark will split anti-Dean vote. Right now it seems like Kerry is hurting Clark more, but it will be close. We can still win it though.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Gaining a point a day the last week, Iowa will put Kerry over the top

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/demtrack04-21s.html

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. I expect Kerry to win NH easily

We are full circle back to the old conventional wisdom. New Hampshire is Kerry's back yard, and people there were/are predisposed to like him. Dean knocked over that apple cart, and many Kerry supporters moved to Clark to stop Dean when Kerry looked like he was finished and was going nowhere.

Iowa knocked over Dean's apple cart, so we are in an odd way back to square one regarding front runner expectations. The Top three NH finishers can "explain" to varying degrees why they "lost" to Kerry in NH, but they will need to put up or shut up the week after.

[Monument]

6. NH was not looking at Kerry due to his "Stalled Campaign".that will change

New Hampshire though that Kerry was toast, so they weren't even paying attention.

Believe me, they'll be all ears this week.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. 7News/Suffolk Poll shows Dean and Kerry in NH statistical tie - pre-caucus

<snip>

Howard Dean remains on top of our exclusive 7News Suffolk University poll with 23 percent but Kerry's at 20 precent - close enough statistically to now make this race too close to call.

Wesley Clark--at 15 percent--is still within shouting distance, but Iowa runner-up John Edwards and Joe Lieberman are far behind the leaders, suggesting New Hampshire could turn into a Kerry-Dean showdown.

<snip>

Check out our daily difference: Kerry up a point, Dean down two and Clark off four. Dean can't stand too many more days like that before Kerry passes him.

Another key number from our poll is 26 percent undecided. It's not that one in four likely Democratic primary voters don't know the candidates - it's that many are no longer sure whom they want to vote for.

And given Dean's big leads here in the past, the obvious conclusion is that some of his supporters may become former supporters.
http://www.whdh.com/features/articles/hiller/A147

[Snivi Yllom]

8. Kerry is taking from Clark

It's going to be a Dean Kerry fight, and I expect Dean to go after Kerry and Clark hard.
Kerry & Edwards went up because they stayed out of the Gephardt Dean fight. now it will bea 4 way fight. Dean-Kerry-Clark-Edwards.

[Hoppin_Mad]

9. Dean leading and Kerry overtaking Clark is GREAT news - Thanks -nt-

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. See post #7