Where do they need to finish in NH to stay alive?

[AP]

Edwards only needs a top four. He's only behind Kerry 20-18 after Iowa. There are three candidates from neighboring states. Everyone knows that he lives or dies in SC. Fifth would be a problem. Top 4 is fine. If he finishes ahead of Dean, he's got the Goldie sound.

Kerry is going to have a problem in the south, I think. In one sense, it doesn't matter where he finishes in NH. The problem in the south isn't really dependant on how he does in IA & NH. I'll say Kerry in 1-3 will make him reasonably competitive in the south, but not a winner. Anything lower, and the vibe will be totally gone and he might not get a chance to revive it farther down the road.

Clark: this is interesting. He doesn't need to win. Nobody is going to hold anything against a guy who doesn't do well in his first election ever. He's also a southerner, so he'll be able to say, 'just wait, you'll see in SC" if he doesn't do well. Anyway, he's guaranteed to do well. If he finishes out of the top 2, he'll have a slightly harder time in the south, but not much.

Dean: Unlike IA, I think he HAS to win in NH. If he comes out of IA and NH without a first place finish, he will be perceived as a guy who could not deliver on his promises. NH will be seen as his home state too, even though a better argument might be made that NH has closer ties to Mass (because population centers get Boston TV). To the REST of America, NH and VT are the same state. So Dean needs to win.





My Iowa analysis:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=122328
(I was right about Gephardt. I said Dean needed to finish in first or second or he'd be in trouble. Judging from the posts here, I think I was right.)

[Jackson Smith]

1. Dean is politically dead if he doesn't win NH.

Clark needs a top 2 or 3 finish IMO.


Part of me thinks if Kerry wins, the whole thing's over. It'll be Kerry~Edwards. Similar to Reagan-Bush in '80. The two best primary candidates forming a team. JMO

[jpgray]

2. Kerry needs momentum going to the South

He doesn't have much definition on Clark without "mo" (both are vets, etc.), so certainly he needs to beat him on his home turf. I still hope Kerry and Edwards make a wager on the bowl. :D

[lancdem]

3. Dean has to win N.H., I think

and Clark in the top 3, I'd say.

[kentuck]

4. If they re-run last night's speech in the South...

Dean will win...:)

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. While I like Edwards

and I would gladly support Edwards as the nominee, what is your logic to support that he only needs the top four? I think the top three, or more to the point I think he needs to come in ahead of Clark. Clark has a lot more money than Edwards, Clark is ahead in many states already. If Edwards closes it is because he has momentum, but he will lose that momentum if Kerry beats him again, but this time Clark, and maybe Dean, does also. New Hampshire will dominate the news next week. Clark wasn't in last night's story, but he will be next week. Edwards doesn't have much time to catch Kerry or Clark. Falling behind both of them in NH would hurt him I think.

[AP]

10. He has said over and over, "measure me by SC" & three neighboring state

politicians are running there. He could plausibly argue that they get votes he would have gotten had they not been from neighboring states.

So nobody is going to complain if he finishes behind Kerry and Dean. And I don't think anyone will complain if he's not TOO far behind Clark. If he's within 3 of Clark, he can still argue that the two of them need to take their competing message to the south.

So, Kerry-Dean-Clark-Edwards and Edwards is definitely alive. Kerry will have a very hard time in the south. Dean will be running on the fumes of his smouldering bat. And Clark and Edwards can take their 3 point difference to the south, where the winner there will win the nomination.

[windansea]

6. my analysis

[Kathleen04]

7. I think..

that Dean needs to finish in the top 3. Top 3 will be fine, 4th could be a major blow. He really wants 1st or 2nd to gain back momentum, but he's far from done if he doesn't deliver.

Clark: I think he needs to try to secure 3rd. 2nd would be excellent, but competing with 2 New Englanders on their home turf is going to be tough.

Edwards: Edwards can place 4th and he'd be in great shape going into Feb. 3rd.

Kerry: Should be shooting for the top 2 to keep his momentum.

Joe: I think Joe is done after NH, those other four are going to be bunched up in the top 4 and Joe is going to come in fifth.

[davidinalameda]

14. Dean needs to win NH

Kerry needs a top 2 finish

Clark's okay at 3rd as is Edwards since their big primaries are yet to come

If Dean and Kerry don't finish 1-2 or 2-1, they're pretty much done

[uberotto]

8. Here's how I see it...

Edwards needs at least a strong 4th. A distant fourth will make Iowa look like a fluke and he will drop out of the news coverage.

Kerry needs first or second, it's his own back yard. Kerry might be able to survive with a strong 3rd.

Dean needs a first or second, it's his own back yard. However, it is more important for Dean to do good in NH than Kerry. If Dean gets less than 2nd, it's over for him.

Clark need a first or second. He skipped Iowa to focus on NH and he has been polling consistantly high. If he doesn't live up to the poll numbers, he will be forgotten by the press.

Of course, I have been known to be wrong. Not often, but it does happen. One things is for sure, the Iowa results have made NH very interesting.

[bicentennial_baby]

9. Let's see..

Dean: Has to win NH

Clark: Top 3

Kerry: Top 2

Edit: Oops, forgot Edwards, my bad :P Edwards has to be in the top 4 to stay viable

[AP]

11. It looks like this is the consensus opinion (in short form).

[sangha]

17. In that case, congratulations on me

At last, I have a popular opinion!!

[mlawson]

12. I think it depends a lot on which one the Dem power brokers want.

Whichever candidate that might be, will not be affected by who wins NH, but will amazingly 'find' unlimited money at their disposal, plus all sorts of perks and advantages. And that person will quickly become (or remain) front runner, and before we know it, will be unstoppable.

Is that person Edwards?? Not sure yet, but I fear it isn't.

[mmonk]

13. Really hard to know

I would say those in single didget results that haven't done previously well in Iowa would be out. The rest can carry on for a good primary fight.

[Bolo Boffin]

15. Setting my prophecy phaser on stun.

Dean must be in the top 2, and close if he's #2. Another 3rd or below, and there'll be no surviving the feeding frenzy.

Clark might survive with a 3rd, but top 2 is better. After all, he's been in New Hampshire a lot longer than the others. A third will get him to the South, but higher will give him better momentum. I don't know if he can survive a fourth place or not. He's got the cash to get to the South right now, so maybe so.

Kerry needs the top two as well. A third place will trip him up, but he'll also get to the South, where I predict he'll do fine.

Edwards is the only candidate who can definitely survive a fourth place hit.

So to maintain the same race into the South:

Kerry
Dean
Clark
Edwards

I don't think this will be the actual order, though. Edwards will again do better than expected, I pronosticate, and he will hamstring somebody in doing so. If Kerry and Clark do what Gep and Dean did in Iowa, it could very well be one of them, and Dean takes the top spot in New Hampshire.

Bottom line: New Hampshire will likely take another of these guys out, plus Lieberman and Sharpton.

[paulk]

16. playing pundit !

Edwards - He has to keep the momentum going to show that Iowa wasn't an anomaly. I think he has to finish ahead of Clark, but he could survive a 4th place finish IF he wins SC.

Kerry - Needs to win to cement his front runner status going into the south. He'll need it, 'cause I don't see him any better than 3rd in SC.

Clark - Has to do well. No lower than 3rd. This is his first real test and he needs to do well to be seen as a viable candidate. Edwards put himself on the map in Iowa - Clark needs to do it in NH.

Dean - Has to win. Period. After the lead he had here, there is no way he can survive another loss and remain a viable candidate IMHO.


There are still large numbers of undecideds in NH, and (according to ARG) a lot of soft support - somebody could still win this thing big!

[DjTj]

18. Dean: 1, Clark: 3, Kerry: 3, Edwards: 4

...but Dean has enough money that he might keep going if he comes in a close second.

Kerry can ride his Iowa win for a while and the same goes for Edwards' momentum.

Clark needs to beat Edwards or he will have trouble in SC.

[arewethereyet]

19. Clark must win

He lost all visibility and has had nothing better to do that dazzle NH.

Dean has to even the score or he's toast.

Kerry can get by with 2nd.

Edwards is in the catbird seat, again. 4th or better is fine but he needs to win SC and he'll do it easily unless Clark wins. Then its close but the real accent should win.