Is Kerry the Mondale of 2004?

[DrBB]

Mondale, 1988. Or, if you like, Bob Dole in 1996. The kind of sacrificial candidate a party traditionally fields against an incumbent. The "Well, we couldn't quite go with someone risky so we settled on generic, see you again in 4 years" candidate. The guy whose turn it is. The war horse who gets to be the standard bearer but who is too familiar a face to really have a chance to energize swing voters or disaffected members of the other party in November.
The "Oh. Him." candidate.

This is why I've been a Clark (1) or Dean (2) supporter. I think we need someone with "outside" energy, with some kind of real edge, to have a chance in November. I'm afraid Kerry is "respectable." He'll make a "good showing." But he won't win. He's a known quantity. He's a reliable, mainstream Dem. Better on Bush criticism than Lieberman, but otherwise Lieberman would serve as well as a sacrificial lamb.

The one hope I have is that NH voters know him inside and out. All those Nashua Boston-commuters. They've seen our boy Kerry, know him well from his race against Weld, back in the day. Nothing new there.

Don't get me wrong. I've voted for Kerry a couple of times as senator. I respect him. But I don't think the charge is there, the 50,000-watt blast that will take rocket him over the advantages of incumbency (elected or not).

He's the "default" candidate. And that's not good enough.

[David Dunham]

1. kerry will do just fine against bush

[aquart]

6. But how will he do against BushCo?

Seeing as he can't bring himself to vote against them.

He's very happy to hide in a crowd. 99 Senators, he keeps saying about his Patriot Act vote.

Can you please tell me on what day he's had the guts to stand alone?

[Walt Starr]

8. One word

unelectable.

[lancdem]

12. Iowa caucus-goers didn't think so

But it's very early.

[Old and In the Way]

10. He ran the BCCI investigation back in the early 90s.

He knows where the bones are buried, so to speak.

I have no doubt that the Patriot Act gets corrected by the next Democratic President. I don't have the same confidence if Bush is re-elected.

I think he's got plenty of guts, but he's going to have to contrast himself on these issues, but the campaign is just starting.

[BobbyJay]

2. No, that's Dean.

[Bread and Circus]

3. As much as I really like Kerry, this is a fascinating post

much merit.

I do think Kerry is better than that, but he is kind of
"the safe bet" candidate.

[Walt Starr]

4. Yep, this way Hillary gets to run in 2008

If Kerry is the nominee, I predict Bush wins in a landslide. He's not electable, especially when he makes toke signs.

[TheDonkey]

5. Kerry's going to have to fight like hell if he gets the nomination

to get the excitment up.

But if Gore did it, I have faith Kerry can do it and more.

[mitchum]

7. No

[SaveElmer]

9. You hit the nail on the head I think

I can't help but think of Bob Dole when I look at John Kerry. I just don't see where he gets us the extra oomph we are gonna need to beat Bush. I really don't see him winning anywhere Gore didn't with the possible exception of New Hampshire. And he could lose a couple Gore states where it was close last time (Wisconsin, Oregon, Minnesota)

In my opinion Dean and Clark were really the only two Democrats with any chance of beating Bush, Dean because I believe he was bringing previous non-voters into the party, and Clark because of his resume.

Unfortunately Dean is imploding, and Clark may get swept under this early Kerry wave.

This doesn't look good

[DrBB]

13. One answer

Send Clark $100. We sent him $200 today and volunteered to work for him.

I've got nothing against Kerry. But I've got a very bad feeling about this.

[lancdem]

14. I read somewhere that Kerry's organization is lacking

in the Feb. 3 primary states, so I wouldn't crown him yet. This is far from over, even if he has the Big Mo now.

[lancdem]

11. Exit polls showed that Kerry won among people

whose major concern was electability, FWIW.

[DrBB]

18. "Safer than Dean"

...is what they meant. But "Too safe to win" is what they got.

Here's something to ponder: Iowa is usually MUCH more risk-averse than NH. This is offset somewhat by Kerry's upset, which gives him a lot of momentum. But Kerry's also a known-quantity to New Hampshirites, and a very well-established Massachusetts Pol. Hence my poorly formulated comment re Nashua, above: they don't necessarily like a long-term Mass senator up there.

On the other hand...

Well, the person who weighs in here to say, "Yeah, but they voted for Dukakis!" will not have set my mind at ease, put it that way.

[robsul82]

15. I think Jon Stewart pretty much hit the nail on the head here.

Intro'd a clip screaming "HERE IS YOUR WINNER, JOHN KERRY!"

Cut to clip of Kerry's victory speech, "They all said, um..."

Jon then has a worried face saying, "Well, they don't call him Mr. Excitement...well, they don't call him Mr. Excitement, no."

In short, yes.

Later.

RJS

[HuckleB]

16. I don't buy this argument.

Yes, I think that Dean and Clark would have a better chance in the GE than Kerry, for a number of reasons. I suspect Edwards would do better, as well. However, Kerry can hold his own against Bush. He is not Mondale. He is not Dukakis. He is not Dole, who clearly knew the game was up from the word go.

[West Coast Democrat]

17. Mondale ran in 1984, Dukakis was 1988

and, no, Kerry has little in common with Mondale.

[DrBB]

20. Doh! Thanks for the correction

...But in terms of the emotions of where things are going, I'm sticking to my point, until someone offers some reasons to convince me otherwise. "Known quantity" is stamped all over him.

And I reiterate: I respect the guy. He was my first choice, much earlier on. But I don't think there's any real electricity there. Iowans tend to go for safety.

[9119495]

19. Where will his Electoral votes come from?

I put this in a thread but didn't get many responses. We need to think about this.

[David Dunham]

21. Kerry's a lot Better than Fritz and Bush is no Reagan

[DrBB]

25. Not that much better. And Bush thinks he IS Reagan

The chimp idolizes Reagan, much more than Poppy. Models himself on the guy. And Fritz was a good respectable senatorial venerable Dem.

But you're right: unlike Reagan, I think Bush has alienated a lot of independents, even some Republicans, and I DON'T think (propaganda notwithstanding) there are very many "Bush Democrats" out there other than Zell Miller.

What worries me? I WANT those cross-over votes. I think there are a LOT of independents up for grabs, and even a reasonable number of alienated Republicans. Guess what won't attract them? A known-quantity, well-identified, mainstream, inside-the-beltway Dem.

I respect Kerry. I admire him for his Viet Nam service, and more for his post-Viet Nam stance against that war, and more still for his BCCI investigations as a freshman senator when no one else had the courage to go after these guys.

But so what? I'm trying to judge on the level of where most people really vote from, which is a gut-level thing. The guy's been around too long, just like Mondale and Dole. He'll make a very good showing. But nothing very unexpected is going to come out of his candidacy. And without that, I think Bush is going to be able to hold on to the 1% or whatever fraction thereof it will take to let him edge in.

[Octafish]

22. Kerry's the best candidate the nation's seen since 1972, at least.

Like McGovern, Kerry is a war hero.

Like McGovern, Kerry is a man of peace.

Politically? Kerry is closer to Robert Kennedy, than John Kennedy.

What's not to like, Doctor?

[cindyw]

23. I respectfully say, Hell no!

I see in Kerry the potential to be one of the greatest presidents in our history. I'm glad people in Iowa could see that.

[Uzybone]

24. Im sure you all were not saying this last week

when Kerry was all but out of the picture. He wins in Iowa and now he becomes the "default" candidate to some DUers. Ha.

[DrBB]

26. Not to some DUers. To some Iowans.

He was the "default" candidate for me from early on. I'm from Massachusetts, and I've voted for the guy a couple of times. Saw him go up against Weld, and win. Good on him. But he never really excited me, particularly because of the IWR thing and his general "Let's not go too hard against the President" posture. I didn't see anyone else who had a better chance, before Clark entered and Dean started out-fundraising everyone.

But I don't think he can really draw from outside the party, which we'll need. And Iowans have traditionally gone for the safer candidate, which seems to me to be what they did here.

[George_Bonanza]

27. Kerry has excited me, and I don't even live in the same country

Surely he can excite people who have or will see him in person.

[JohnKleeb]

28. I signed up tonight and I am gonna see if hes gonna campaign near here