February 3rd primaries

[ringmastery]

There are 7 of them. Why is SC the only one getting attention? Who looks good in these states?

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Carolina
Oklahoma

[SadEagle]

1. Habbit, I think.

It used to be a Dean v. Clark game (with Gep leading in Missouri, of course), but who knows these days?

[ringmastery]

2. based on geography

Kerry and Dean should do well in Delaware, which is basically like a northern state.

Clark and Edwards battle it out in South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri. A Gephardt endorsement for Edwards at some point would be huge.

Dean and Clark are supposedly strong in Arizona, New Mexico.

I have no clue about North Dakota.

[ButterflyBlood]

4. I think Clark will win ND

back while I was visiting at home for Christmas break, they mentioned he actually made a campaign stop. North Dakotans love it when people actually take them seriously and pay attention. and his military record will help him big time there.

[SadEagle]

9. Dean made an ND stop, as well.

So that one cancels out. You may be right on the military record, I don't know much about the state, but then there is also Kerry... So I stand by w/my "not a clue" ;-)

[ButterflyBlood]

10. ND has one of the highest rates of military service in the country

and Clark's stop appeared to get more coverage. Kerry hasn't been paying much attention, plus he's got the northeastern liberal stigma (I think this will apply to Dean as well, but not as much)

as pointed out below as well, McGovern's endorsement will help bigtime in both Dakotas.

[SadEagle]

11. I see, thanks, interesting analysis.

And I am definitely not of a generation to understand the meaning of McGovern for people --- other than wishing he became president...

[SadEagle]

6. North Dakota has caucuses, and no-one polled there...

Anyway, regarding to clarify the "habbit" comment: IIRC, last time, IIRC, SC was the only one. Dean actually used to be doing well in Missouri, too (2nd behind Gep), but again, the dynamic has shifted entirely. I don't think we'll have a clue really until after NH. Oh, the funny thing about Delaware is that Lieberman was supposedly making it his "firewall" and was polling at like 5% there ;-).

[deminflorida]

8. I do, Mcgovern is from South Dakota, has lots of influence in the

Dakotas, period. It will be Clark country...

[jmaier]

3. Well, NH will affect these races

but my current predictions:

Arizona: Clark
Delaware: Dean or Kerry
Missouri: no idea since Gep dropped but Edwards or Clark
New Mexico: Dean
North Dakota: no clue
South Carolina: Edwards
Oklahoma: Clark

[hedgetrimmer]

5. all of what i've heard is...

KUCINICH!

[ButterflyBlood]

7. my picks

Arizona: Kerry or Clark
Delaware: Kerry
Missouri: Edwards
New Mexico: Dean
North Dakota: Clark
South Carolina: Edwards
Oklahoma: Clark

[deminflorida]

13. Arizona will go Clark...Ted Danson is from there,

he's campaigning hard in Arizona for Clark. Clark's wife is traveled several times and hosted events. Clark just picked up a key Hopi Indian endorsement.

The largest state newspaper in New Mexico just endorsed Clark, and this was even before Dean lost in Iowa. Unless Dean does well, New Mexico goes Clark as well.

Tell ya what, who ever gets the African American vote in South Carolina wins that state, period. Clark has made really good inroads there, standing on the capital steps and demanding they take down the Confederate Flag off that capital building alongside Al Sharpton...well that means the man just won big time respect in S.C. among African Americans. The only other big special interest group is retired veterans. Clark may split those with Kerry competing there, but that leaves Edwards in the cold with the white southern male/female vote. South Carolina is a hard-core Republican state, without the African American vote your history.

Again I say Clark...

Arizona - Clark
New Mexico - Clark
North Dakota - Clark
Oklahoma - Clark
South Carolina - Clark

Delaware - Kerry

Missouri - Edwards

[deminflorida]

18. Just to add, if Clark does well on Feb. 3rd, he rides and picks up

maybe Virginia before Super Tuesday...If he does well on Super Tuesday but doesn't close this thing...

the south has him covered on March 9th because he'll close with:

Florida
Louisiana
Mississippi


Remember the "True Grits" tour he made, he did that early for a reason.

[mohc]

12. latest polls

Arizona (1/6-12): Clark 34 Dean 27 Undecided 21
Delaware (1/12-14): Dean 27 Clark 18 Sharpton 13
Missouri (1/9-11): Gephardt 37 Dean 19 Clark 15
New Mexico (1/12-15): Undecided 34 Dean 18 Clark 16
North Dakota: None available
Oklahoma (12/20-23): Undecided 34 Dean 24 Clark 21
South Carolina (1/11-13): Dean 25 Clark 23 Edwards 17 Sharpton 12

With Gephardt out and high undecideds, all of these are up for grabs except for SC and DE. SC is just so close, and I imagine Edwards will be rediscovered there. The real question will be how far Dean falls there if he can not win NH and how much would Kerry benefit if he wins NH. DE might be one of those states that Dean wins because no one really contests it, but there is relatively high support there for Sharpton, Gephardt, and Lieberman, and those votes might redistribute based on how things go. Another note, none of those polls are post-Iowa.

[deminflorida]

14. The key phrase....

"Another note, none of those polls are post-Iowa."

[mohc]

16. Or post-NH for that matter.

As hard a hit as Dean took last night, if he wins NH, thats the story. "Comeback Kerry" gives way to "Comeback Dean", hes got the most to lose, but the most to gain.

[CalebHayes]

15. Here we go...

AZ: Clark, Kerry, Dean
Delaware:Dean or Kerry
Missouri:Dean,Edwards or Clark... toss up
NM:Clark, Kerry, Dean
ND:Who cares?
SC:Edwards
OK:Clark or Edwards

I really have no clue!

[Kathleen04]

17. My guesses:

AZ-Clark
DE-Kerry or Dean
MO-Clark or Edwards
NM-Clark
ND-Clark
SC-Edwards
OK-Edwards

Something like that anyways..