Will Iraqi elections be a successful first step to flourishing democracy?

[Clarkie1]

It occured to me the other day that Bush could get lucky. You all know instances in life where someone does a really stupid thing, gets away with out, and in the context of the random nature of the universe everything turns out great when it most likely would have failed miserably.

This war has already cost too much in American lives and dollars, that is not what I'm asking in this poll. I'm asking what you think the odds are the Iraqi elections will lead to a flourishing democracy, and a better country for the Iraqi people.

[Azathoth]

1. Flourishing democracy? Virtually no chance in hell

I think at this point, most people would be relieved if the elections proved to be the first step towards a stable government of ANY kind.

[Clarkie1]

2. Yes, but I decided to poll the notion Bush is selling n/t

[Azathoth]

7. I don't think even the republicans believe what he's selling anymore

I was listening to William Kristol the other night, and even HE was playing down the notion of a flourishing democracy immediately taking root in Iraq. When neocon #1 admits you've screwed up, you're in trouble.

[stillcool]

3. A roaring success will be anything short of Falluja.

[John_H]

4. I voted certainly becuase I believe everything I hear on CNN

[Clarkie1]

5. Your sarcasm is duly noted n/t

[yurbud]

6. a chance if Bushies aren't counting the votes

[IowaGuy]

8. Any rational look at the political dynamics in play...

would suggest the most likely outcome is, after the elections and they have to sit down and start doing the "hard work" (sorry about the GW phrase) of governing themselves...it will decay into warring factions with the SHIA majority eventually carving out the south (and its oil) for themselves, becoming a fundamentalist theocracy, much to the glee of Iran (yeah, that will make the world safer, sure..), the Kurds will carve out an area in the north (with its oil) and become a miltary threat to their neighbors to the north, the Turks (border clashes for decades on the horizon, much like Paki's and India) and the Sunnis will decay into yet another failed state, exporting foment and terrorism....yeah, way to redraw the map and make us safer PNAC'rs....

[eallen]

9. I hope Iraqis pull out something, even if not democracy as we view it.

There are a lot of possibilities between continuing violent occupation and flourishing democracy. The GOP desparately wants to push the notion that there are only two ways to view the Iraq war: with them or with the terrorists. This backs any critics into the corner of hoping for utter disaster in Iraq. But really, I hope it isn't a disaster, and that the Iraqis are able to pull something reasonable out of this, despite the false pretext with which the US invaded Iraq, and the corrupt nature of the Bush administration. Is that too nuanced?

[salin]

15. Count me here, as well

Can't help but hope that there will be a way for the violence to end, and for the Iraqis to be able to move past the current nightmare. I was and remain a huge critic of this war - but I still wish for peace above all else. I don't expect it in the near term - but I still hope for it.

[rzemanfl]

10. You left one out. Iraq somehow becomes a democracy, while

the United States becomes a theocratic bankrupt dictatorship.

[imenja]

11. If Iraq becomes a Democracy, it will be IN SPITE of us, not because of us

Bush has dealt a serious blow to liberal reform efforts in the Muslim world. Democratic movements are increasingly seen as pro-American and thus illegitimate.

[The Magistrate]

12. No, Sir

Rather, they will prove the signal-gun for the commencement of real civil war....

[rfkrfk]

13. will these representatives, be seen as legit, by their constituents?

Removing the iron fist of Saddam, changes a lot.
The three main groups, need representation.
Just that, would be an improvement, but the new parlimentarians
{or whatever} need to be accepted by their constituents.
Partition, if that happens, might not be all bad.
Depends on a lot. Should there be a breakup,it is not
inevetably, that it be violent.
Not all Shia want a theocracy, btw.

[RafterMan]

14. I'll say 50/50

I've been impressed with Sistani's coalition-building skills as well as his ability to restrain his followers.

If he doesn't overextend himself, I could see other groups rising to take the opening.

[Azathoth]

16. Sistani has his own interests at heart

He expects a Shia dominated government. I think he's basically a decent guy -- and the best ally we could have right now -- but I think he could quickly become an enemy if the elections or future government don't go the way he wants them to.

[RafterMan]

17. Sure, that's why I like him

I don't think he's our "ally" except in the backwards sense -- you and I want the occupation to end peacefully, so does Sistani. Does this make him Bush's ally? Only on the thin chance Bush means what he says.

As for things going the way he hopes, for the time being at least he seems to have a very broad definition of what he hopes for -- he's got al-Sadr and Chalabi running on the same pan-Shiite ticket. That's the kind of hard-nosed pragmatism with which he has continually surprised me. If he turns dogmatic that will be another story, but he hasn't given me any reason to think he will.

But lots of things can happen and many of them are bad, so I'll stick with 50/50.

[Just Me]

18. I don't even view the event as "elections".

The majority CAN'T or WON'T vote. Those who do vote don't know who the hell they are voting for.

Will the IRAQI people work to cause democracy to flourish?

:shrug:

Given the violent trauma imposed upon them by a country allegedly seeking to deliver (FORCE) democracy, they may very well say "to hell with this"!

[leftofthedial]

19. Iraq may eventually sort out its own path

these elections have nothing to do with that.

they are a temporary artifact of Murkan neocolonialism

they will have as much effect as the phony elections we staged in Viet Nam