What will Iraqis do when Allawi is elected?

[wiggs]

It is reasonable to assume that BA wouldn't trust its 200 billion dollar investment and military bases to an honest election. Allawi or another WH operative will likely become the next Iraqi puppet.

Iraqis know what Allawi is and he is not popular.

Will they spill out into the streets? Will they say nothing and continue the insurgency? Will they feel they've achieved some measure of independence? Will the Sunni's go nuts? Will the international community denounce the election?

[DinahMoeHum]

1. It's almost a sure bet the international community does not

recognize this "election" as legitimate.

IMO, Allawi is "Saddam-lite" - one Bush feels he can control.


:evilfrown:

[w13rd0]

2. The "elections" aren't to elect a "supreme leader"...

...anyway. It's a complete sham, and I'm sure they are aware of that. I vote that the continuation of the insurgency shall occur. I also say that the Sunni's, the Shia and the Kurds will all go nuts. And I say they won't rely on the international community saying a damn thing considering their present state of being subject to an illegal occupation and the "international community" not saying much more than standard grousing. I'm still waiting to see which nations first suggest sanctions against the US for violation of international law.

[Mistress Quickly]

3. I believe they are electing the

general assembly to write their constitution. I think Allawi stays president for the time being.

[htuttle]

5. That's correct

They haven't even scheduled the Presidential election yet -- that is supposed to be spelled out in the new constitution.

[PATRICK]

6. More to the point

What will the Shia leaders do? The whole thing hinges upon the quid pro quo of giving them power and getting rid of the US without allowing the Sunnis to storm back in. That has little to do with democracy as such.

Also the relationship to Iran and REAL Shia autonomy in Iraq may present some very unpleasant surprises for the puppet master when the strings start getting severed.

Nothing can succeed with Bush set to leapfrog over the devastated slave state to their brothers in Iran. The ballgame, as tough a nut as it is, is totally in the hands of those who can act flexibly. One wonders while the totally inflexible Bushco machine sputters on in total predictability trying to break out of bloody, ruinous containment.

Allawi might turn even if we think we have him blackmailed. He might be gone shortly. The Shia might simply pull out or contest. They have barely flexed their street strength. Their dilemma is that Iran could send troops in to guard their power but the Americans, the present guardians, will of course take on Iran. The game has been greatly reduced to a single deal between the Us and the Shia with none of the complexities solved but worsened- including the American resolve to take out the Ayatollahs of Iran.

It is hard to think of a dumber situation in world history that has not been the fatal ruin of the occupier.

[asjr]

4. If they take to the streets, gunfire will bring them down.

It could be from the insurgents, or it could be from U.S. troops. There is no way the Iraqi people can win.