Dean is Subdued (New York Times)

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/21/politics/campaigns/21DEAN.html

Dean Is Subdued
By JODI WILGOREN

Published: January 21, 2004

MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 20 — Gone was the outsider's tirade, the pitched condemnation of right-wing Republicans and "Washington Democrats" afraid to vote against them. Gone, too, were the finger thrust and the scowl of outrage.

"Those of you who came here intending to be lifted to your feet by a lot of red-meat rhetoric are going to be a little disappointed," a subdued Howard Dean told several hundred people at a hotel ballroom here on the morning after his weak third-place showing in the Iowa caucuses. "I want to give the kind of speech I gave in Vermont for so many years, a speech about policy."

But Dr. Dean did not offer any new initiatives, or many new thoughts about the old ones. Instead, only hours after delivering a growling and defiant Iowa concession speech that delighted opponents and puzzled even some of his supporters, he wound through a softened version of his stump speech.

After suffering the first defeat of his political career, a crushing 20-point loss to Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Dr. Dean was clearly trying to regain his footing in a drastically reshaped Democratic presidential race just a week before the New Hampshire primary.

Now he must contend here not only with Senator Kerry but also with Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who finished a strong second in Iowa, and Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who did not compete in Iowa but has been steadily gaining support in New Hampshire.

...more...

-----

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4012326/

Dean's N.H. lead shrivels to nothing in new poll

Iowa winner Kerry, former Vermont governor now in dead heat
MSNBC
Jan. 21, 2004

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Howard Dean, who once held a 30-point lead over Sen. John Kerry in New Hampshire, is now locked in a statistical tie with the Iowa caucus winner one week before the state’s presidential primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC Zogby poll released Tuesday.

Dean led Kerry 25 percent to 23 percent in the three-day tracking poll, which began Sunday, the day before Kerry’s stunning win in Iowa in the first contest in the Democratic race to pick a challenger to President Bush. But in Tuesday’s polling, taken after the caucus results were known, the Massachusetts senator actually led Dean by two percentage points after the former Vermont governor finished a distant third in Iowa.

...more...

[ALago1]

1. I'm glad he's softening...

...but worried that the media whores will spin it as Dean "reinventing himself" ala Gore 2000

[WilliamPitt]

3. You've got the theme already

It won't be 'reinventing.' It will be 'running away from himself' or 'trying to soften the rough edges' or something. Anyone who got in my face yesterday for suggesting that speech did damage needs to read this, from the paper of record for the western world...and then look at the Zogby numbers. I was diffident about polls last week, but Zogby had it spot-on in Iowa.

[Jerseycoa]

2. Will, who does Kerry focus on in NH?

Does he fight Dean for first? Try to knock Clark out with the vet theme? What do you see happening?

[WilliamPitt]

6. Were I his strategist, I'd say focus on Bush and then Clark, in that order

Clark is going to focus on him, and Clark's been there for weeks now. As for Dean, there's that old Chicago saying: Never get in the way of a perfectly good train wreck.

[Jerseycoa]

17. Damn

I was looking forward to a Clark-Dean fight in NH. Oh, well.

[WilliamPitt]

18. You might get one

Dean has enough cash to fight a war on several fronts, and Clark is as much of a threat as Kerry. The article above says as much.

[Jerseycoa]

30. I saw that

It doesn't seem the smart thing to me for Dean to battle both Kerry and Clark at once, but... I guess we'll soon find out.

[David Zephyr]

34. But You're Not His Strategist, Are You?

Whose strategist are you? Oh, that's right, I forgot: no one's.

[WilliamPitt]

39. And you are...

[cthrumatrix]

4. I saw his CSPAN speech - he was all issues --- media doesn't like that

[Democrats unite]

5. I am very glad for Kerry, I knew when it came time for the actual votes...

Iowa & (IMO) NH will do Kerry right as they should. Kerry is in the for the long haul as he should be.

[liberalnurse]

7. Thanks for sharing......

This post has reinforced my choice to vote for Dean at the GE. I will just write him in if need be....It is such articles, dramatization and manipulation that has given *bush the easy way to 2004.

So much for party unity.

[paulk]

20. I don't understand what you mean

by "so much for party unity"

???

[cthrumatrix]

8. I'm glad to see him "learn" from what voters want --- pocketbook issues

according to todays front page WSJ.

[CWebster]

9. So what, Pitt

We all know your agenda.

You back Kerry and adopt Kerry's non-stop attacks on Dean for leverage. Ain't winning him-or you, any points in my book.

[cthrumatrix]

10. it's ok -- Dean can adapt to his strength -- issues

[Frederic Bastiat]

13. What issues?

He doesn't even have a tax plan yet.

[lancdem]

14. That's what all our candidates should talk about

[polpilot]

33. Pro status quo, Pitt. Nothing wrong with being satisfied with the country

that Kerry and other pro-war reps have given us.. just don't try to sell them as the agents of change or revolutionaries...just old time politicos like ____________ and ________________ and __________________.

Many, many people in this country are scared of change and Dean scared them the most. List the candidates in the history of this country that their OWN PARTY LEADERSHIP went after when they were leading. Only one I know of. Howard Dean...

Dean '04...

[SeattleRob]

37. Actually...

They also went after Jerry Brown in 1992. (when Ron Brown headed the DNC)He was the last threat to Clinton gaining the nomination, so they went after him big time - Does anybody remember the ABC special reports about Brown's "Pot Parties?"

It is all about the status quo and the powers that be (in both parties) being afraid or the masses, we the People, actually realizing the dream of a real democracy. Disagreeing over issues
is alright, but if it threatens the core values of the powers that be - eg. ruling elites, corporate capitalism, etc... then they unite and shoot down (literally and figuratively) whomever poses the threat. (See 1968 MLK RFK)

[HFishbine]

11. Will

Did you watch Dean's forum in Manchester?

[WilliamPitt]

12. I did not, unfortunately

Is there a transcript or a fair press report?

[HFishbine]

28. You

are a fair minded person and should see it for yourself -- especially the very excellent question and answer period.

View it here: rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/c04/c04012004_dean.rm

[WilliamPitt]

31. Thanks for the link

I'll watch it for lunch. Appreciated.

[wtmusic]

15. 'Shrivels to nothing'

after being unknown a year ago.

Good to keep perspective in place.

[WilliamPitt]

19. I'm sorry

That's good spin to keep the troops motivated. But Dean has been the front-runner for a long, long time now, and held a 30 point lead in New Hampshire for a long, long time now. Referencing his position a year ago leaps the issue at hand.

[theboss]

22. That's a weak argument

That's like Penn State saying that 6-5 next year will be an improvement over 2003. Dean had a 30-point lead. A loss from that level is devastating.

[wtmusic]

32. Devastating

after one caucus? You're more easily devastated than I.

[theboss]

38. Devastating if he loses NH

If he blows a lead that big in NH, I really think he's toast. He can survive the Iowa lost, not NH.

[Paragon]

16. My thoughts exactly:

[theboss]

21. Why does Dean always announce his strategy?

"Those of you who came here intending to be lifted to your feet by a lot of red-meat rhetoric are going to be a little disappointed."

Between this and the "I will talk about religion in the South," he is talking about strategy openly. I've never seen a candidate do this before.

You never heard Clinton begin a speech with, "Now I am going to triangulate today."

[Kahuna]

40. So true.

Good observation.

:hi:

[CWebster]

23. "Iowa, The Democrats and the Media"

As a supporter of Dennis Kucinich, I've talked to dozens of activists over the months (perhaps representative of thousands nationwide) who said that while Kucinich was their favorite choice, they were working for Howard Dean because Kucinich was not taken seriously enough by mainstream media. In the last 10 days of the Iowa process, it's clear that many Dean supporters and leaners bought the incessant media line on Dean that he is too angry, too far left, too lacking in national security credentials to win -- and moved to candidates touted by media pundits as more centrist, more electable (especially in the South): Senators John Kerry and John Edwards.

Some Iowa Democrats, of course, changed their views based on independent scrutiny and analysis. One hopes that activists will remain firm enough to make up their own minds and stick to candidates disfavored by mainstream media; otherwise, they risk letting the punditry -- which is usually wrong -- choose their candidates for them...

Some of the media attacks on Dean were fueled by the negative approach of rival campaigns, including Kerry's. By the end of the Iowa campaign, Kerry was hurling insults: "When I came back from Vietnam in 1969 I don't know if John Edwards was out of diapers then." (He later apologized.)Given that Kerry played the "I served and you didn't" card to the hilt and with apparent success in Iowa, it was inevitable that the game would be joined with a vengeance by Gen. Wesley Clark -- whose campaign is based on little more than his military status and whose credentials as a Democrat are such that even Joe Lieberman attacks him...from the left...

..If what matters most is military background and rank, maybe certain Democrats will soon pass over both Kerry and Clark to draft Colin Powell for president: Hey, Clark was just a general --I chaired the Joint Chiefs of Staff!



http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0120-13.htm

[PATRICK]

24. Leaned too hard on his organization

He walked into the perfect trap. Maybe he knew he had staked his new support too soon on a small battlefield that didn't fit, against seasoned machines and other great candidates who can actually stump a state and press all the flesh. Even his heavy endorsements were measured admiration of the wave he was riding, Dean placing second to his own support. Very odd, and very unhelpful of supposed veteran politicians, though some of them have a consummate skill for losing the big one.

I think he has the strong credentials of a seasoned governor and the personal appeal, but he is personally going to have to match himself- not his money or troops- against the others. That, and like everyone else up against the corporate machine, he has not penetrated the barbed wire fence they keep too many American minds trapped behind. Without that "awakening" people need assurance to lead them out of what they feel is a mess, but cannot grasp that radical revolt is a possible response.

It is good to see that Dean supporters have a little more persistence than some revived Kerry supporters. It is way too early unless a candidate personally does an untimely meltdown. Not to be a worry wart, but I think they all are capable of that.

Again, can we let the voters decide and not take the big hurt they must dish out too much to heart? And dissing the energized voters is meaningless since we will face much worse come November trying to reach the really deluded or ignorant. Each candidate so far has strengthened the eventual fall campaign even if (take a deeep breath) we blow a lot of money in the process. The energizing of voters, the real contest, the exposure is priceless, despite the weakly parrot spin.( I note the really long AP article uses Kerry as means for attacking all the other candidates while practically ignoring Edwards. Some media is still divinely crafted against us. Because of a strong field and the real voters, it fails miserably as it very often has in the past(Powell, Cuomo, Bradley, McCain and on and on the confident gaffes, not to mention their hyping of the eccentric Perot as one to top Clinton).

[CWebster]

26. Always an interesting read, Patrick

"That, and like everyone else up against the corporate machine, he has not penetrated the barbed wire fence they keep too many American minds trapped behind. Without that 'awakening' people need assurance to lead them out of what they feel is a mess..."

Priceless insight.

[VelmaD]

25. Hee...love the title

My first reaction on reading "Dean is Subdued" was probably not GD appropriate - more of a Lounge type of thing. ;-)

[TLM]

27. See Will, just as I said.... they attack regardless.

When Dean is energized and agressive they say he is too angry.


When Dean is relaxed and non-aggressive, they say he's too subdued.


The Goreing of Dean is in full swing. Expect the he's reinventing himself and doesn't know who he is memes to start up... and expect Kerry to be first in line to contribute to the dog pile.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

29. The word "subdued" is an attack nowadays? LOL!

n/t

[Logansquare]

35. Howard Dean's big problem--the reporter doesn't like him

When your assigned reporter, in this case Jodi Wilgoren, starts making it obvious that she hates you, it bodes very poorly for your public image. A buddy of mine had a brief experience working for the Gore campaign in Illinois, where he had to coordinate with the press and make sure they got whatever they needed, including all sorts of free crap from the campaign including (very good!) food and drink. Allowing for the fact that these people are away from friends and family for weeks, cramped on buses together, bored out of their minds, several acted more like cranky infants than graduates of the nation's best journalism programs.

I remember the nasty pile-on endured by Gore from reporters who decided they detested him. It's clearly happening with Wilgoren while she covers the Dean campaign; this kind of thing is viral in nature. Dean's people need to number 1: try to make nice with her. Figure out what she's lacking, and give it to her. If she's pissed or hurt, try to make up to her. It's unfortunate, but journalists are very powerful in this situation and can wreak havoc with campaigns if they are unhappy. 2. If that doesn't work, they need to limit her access, and stroke and coddle other reporters. Make sure the other reporters know what happened, with the clear implication that smear jobs are not tolerated by the campaign.

[Walt Starr]

36. News about Dean is SO LAST WEEK!

:eyes:

Now it's time for pile-on Kerry.

[mohc]

41. This gives him a fighting chance

I watched a Dean Q&A in NH on CSPAN yesterday. He was calm, collected, and articulated his positions very well. I agreed with everything he said, and so did the crowd. I know the faithful want him to fire everyone up, but he needs to make Iowa a distant memory. He still is a top contender in NH, and if he wins hes going to do just fine. If he keeps this subdued tone until next Tuesday, he might just win.