NH Daily Tracking - Dean 26 Kerry 24 Clark 18 Edwards 9

[ringmastery]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Only one day of the poll was done on Tuesday (the day after the Iowa caucus).

Can anyone approximate what Tuesday's polling data was from the 3 day tracking? Kerry must be in the lead.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. No matter. The trends are apparent

Dean down, Kerry up. I see nothing to change that.

[NewHampster]

2. Zogby has Dean 25 Kerry 23

http://www.zogby.com/


Jan 18-20

Former VT Governor Howard Dean
25

MA Senator John Kerry
23

Retired General Wesley K. Clark
16

NC Senator John Edwards
7

CT Senator Joseph Lieberman
7

OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich
2

Civil Rights Activist Rev. Al Sharpton
0.1

Undecided
16

[mohc]

3. based on the last week of that tracking poll

Dean was at 28% for 5 straight days (of rolling averages), so his daily for the 20th is probably at 22%, but we have to keep in mind MoE. Kerry has been around 20%, so his daily could be as high as 32%, we will know by tomorrow as his lower numbers fall out of the average. Edwards has only moved up a little, probably to around 11%. If things continue the way they are going now, it should end up Kerry-Dean-Edwards-Clark by the time its all over. But we'll just have to wait and see.

[mohc]

4. From the site

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

"While Howard Dean has a 2 percentage-point lead over John Kerry in the 3-day average, Kerry has a 1 percentage-point lead in the 2-day average (sample size of 508 likely Democratic primary voters) and Kerry has a 5 percentage-point lead in the one-day sample on January 20 (the sample size of 302 likely Democratic voters, theoretical margin of error ± 6 percentage points). Also, from January 19 to January 20, Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point and John Edwards is up 3 percentage points. There is no change for Joe Lieberman."

This changes the picture a little, instead of Clark being on the decline, he is actually rebounding, he must have had a bad day which pulled down his averages in the past 3 days. Edwards is indeed at 11 as I predicted, but thats within MoE. Looks like the 20th was something like:

Kerry 27 (Up 3)
Dean 22 (Down 6)
Clark 19 (Up 1)
Edwards 11 (Up 3)