I heard a late poll on CNN....

[kentuck]

that had Dean at 30%, Kerry at 28%, Clark at 19%, Edwards at 9%, and Lieberman at 8%.. That doesn't leave a lot of "undecideds" like we had in Iowa? Does this bode well for Dean and Kerry? There's not a lot votes for Edwards to pick up unless supporters leave one candidate or another? From this poll, it would appear that Dean will finish first or second and is still very much alive. Any other thoughts?

edited spelling

[rbrussell]

1. If That's a Tracking Poll...

And I think it sounds like the ARG one- you're going to have to wait two more days to get a full picture of things. Only one day of polling would have been conducted after the results of the Caucuses were known.

[jenk]

2. there's still a huge debate tomorrow

and if dean looks lackluster, that could really hurt him

[creativelcro]

11. WHEN is debate ? Who's broadcasting it ? Tx!

[jenk]

15. tomorrow evening on FAUX, not sure of the time

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

3. hang in there howard!

we're still with ya!

[bearfartinthewoods]

13. howard went home...................

he's hanging with the family at a hockey game

[spooky3]

14. I think this is the best thing he could do.

He will feel a zillion times better.

[economic justice]

4. That only included 1/2 day of polling after caucuses. <eom>

[elperromagico]

5. Depends. This is quite different from Iowa, after all.

Caucuses are harder to predict, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if those numbers stay relatively accurate. But... Dean's support was at 43% a few weeks back, wasn't it? He could be slipping.

How you vote in a caucus depends on how many other people in your area support your candidate. I wouldn't doubt that Dean's support in Iowa was greater than 18%, or that Kerry's support was smaller than 38%. But a caucus forces you to compromise far more than a primary does. The results will probably be far closer in NH.

[kentuck]

7. But I don't think it is a given that any support Dean loses goes to Kerry

...I think it would probably be more evenly distributed over all the candidates...

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Much of it will

it's the "local favorites" thing.

[elperromagico]

19. Neither do I.

I don't think that happened in Iowa either. I haven't looked at the full Iowa results yet, but I suspect that Dean's base of support in Iowa was a bit... err... splotchy. It was there in spades in some places and totally lacking in others. Kerry and Edwards had support in smaller proportions, but more spread out. So, Dean couldn't gain 15% in a lot more places than either Kerry or Edwards.

Caucuses produce distorted results in much the same way as the Electoral College does. Winners' figures are exaggerated and losers' figures are often decimated.

One doesn't see that in primaries, generally. The polls in NH the day before the primary are likely to be very close to dead-on.

[Padraig18]

10. you are correct.

there is no 'viability/realign' scenario in a primary. :)

[bearfartinthewoods]

17. when your 'negatives' jump 20 points in a day...you're slipping

[adamrsilva]

6. That's good news for Dean...

Kerry can still overtake him, but if he finished second, and not Clark, he's still in the race. Edwards will likely be boosted by the remaining undecided.

[kentuck]

8. But Kucinich should do better in NH than he did in Iowa....

I would guess. If these numbers are for real, I doubt they will change that dramatically by next week. They could, but I doubt it. Most of the support that Edwards and Kerry got in Iowa were from undecideds, although Dean and Gephardt both lost support to them.

[jenk]

9. Edwards rise is very impressive

and he will do well on primary night

Edwards was mired in the 3-4% range for the longest time, now he's up to 9%.

Look, nobody expected Dean to do so poorly in Iowa, nobody expected Kerry to surge to 38%, and nobody thought Gephardt would tank at 11%, everybody had him at 19-22%

[spooky3]

16. this poll I think has only about a third of the respondents from

after the Iowa results were released. So he may do better in the next one. He has not spent much time in NH because it's the "back yard" of Dean, Kerry, & Lieberman, and Clark had spent so much time there. He was in SC at least part of today, and I hope he gets some time off to rest and recharge. So he may not bump up much.

[paulk]

18. I saw that also

and part of the report was that Kerry was trending up and Dean down - over a 10 day period.

Dean's last chance to reverse this trend is the debate.

[elperromagico]

21. If his past debate performances are any indicator,

he's in trouble.

It may help him that he is no longer the clear frontrunner in NH. The other candidates would be more likely to pile on Kerry, and Dean could just cruise his way through.

[quaker bill]

20. It seems like a rise for Dean, after the slump going into IA

It is lower than Dean at his peak a month or so ago, but he seems to be trending back upward now. A good showing in NH will reinvigorate the campaign. Unless he performs badly in the debate, a first or second place finish for Dean seems likely here.

[RummyTheDummy]

22. Dean

He's done. Stick a fork in him. :)