Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:20 PM
Original message |
A look at the primaries. Kerry and Dean might have real trouble |
|
OK, here is a look at the primaries. There are a lot of possibilities but the schedule is a minefield for Kerry and Dean.
OK, NH is next. If Kerry wins, it's a big deal but it might not mean much. A strong Dean 2nd would be huge for him. Dean needs a strong second. Anything worse, and he is in trouble. A second or better finish for Clark would be a boost.
Now the fun starts.
February 3
Clark Arizona New Mexico North Dakota Oklahoma
Edwards South Carolina
Kerry or Dean Delaware
Edwards, Kerry, Clark all have a shot Missouri
This means Clark is in good shape and Edwards could be OK. Dean could come out of this in deep trouble. It's possible for him to still not have a win after Feb. 3. Dean was doing well in AZ and NM, but Clark has the support of the Indian nations. That and Dean's scream have probably set him back. Dean could do better if he does real well in NH.
February 7
Michigan Washington
Kerry and Dean have a good shot in Michigan. Edwards or Clark could do well there too if they have momentum. Michigan went for McCain last time.
February 8 Maine
That's up for grabs. Dean was good there. Kerry is probably really strong there.
February 10 Tennessee Virginia
TN and VA are major swing states. The winner will get a huge boost. There is an argument there for Clark and Edwards. Dean would have a shot if he was still alive.
February 17 Wisconsin WI is good for Dean, maybe Clark.
February 24 Hawaii Maybe Dean Idaho ??? Utah ???
I don't know how this plays out.
February 14 District of Columbia Dean Nevada Maybe Clark or Dean
Super Tuesday March 2 California Connecticut Georgia Maryland Massachusetts Minnesota New York Ohio Rhode Island Vermont
There is a lot here. I am not even guessing. All I can say is that if Clark and Edwards need the other one out. The sooner that happens, the more southern votes they can lock up.
Dean has potential if he can rebound almost completely. States that are more favorable to him come later.
Kerry doesn't have many obviously favorable states.
This race is very much up for grabs. If Dean comes up, he is dangerous. If Clark or Edwards dominate on Feb. 3rd, they are in really good shape. Kerry is going to have to fight for every vote.
I have reason to believe that this will be a Clark, Edwards, Dean race. Sub out Dean if he gets wrecked in NH and Feb. 3. Sub in Kerry if he can pull a couple southern or western states.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:25 PM
Response to Original message |
1. If Joe passes Clark in NH, watch him sink fast |
|
He has a fight now to stay ahead of Joe. You all need to review NH and how they vote.
I just want to vote for someone that has been in our party for a long time.
|
jmaier
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
5. a fight to stay ahead of Lieberman? |
|
I'd like to see the data that you're basing that conclusion upon.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
17. Come after me next week after NH, just a hunch and input |
|
from I think really good sources in NH.
|
bain_sidhe
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
16. Clark has to "fight to stay ahead of Joe"????? |
|
What you smokin'? Can I get some?
All the polls I've seen have Clark at least DOUBLE Joe's numbers. Playin' the "marginalizing" game along with our media friends, are ya?
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
18. People said the same thing in Iowa about Kerry and Edwards |
|
Clark has more to worry about Joe passing him than how far Edwards passes him.
Mark my name down and do your smoking deal with me later.
|
Eric J in MN
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:26 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Since Kerry won Iowa, why not North Dakota and Wisconsin? nt |
Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
|
ND is a pro-gun kinda place. Dean and Clark were doing real well there. Kerry could do well, but he is probably too liberal and not as pro-gun as he needs to be.
Kerry could win Wisconsin. I just think Dean would do really well there. Clark has had good support there too. Then agian, the unions could help Kerry. It depends on if Dean is still alive.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:33 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
7. Bleachers7, forgot to say thanks for laying this all out |
|
Nice work and I will study more.
|
Feanorcurufinwe
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
9. America is a pro-gun place. Kerry is a pro-gun candidate. |
|
Being in favor of selling child safety locks with handguns doesn't not make someone anti-gun.
|
Kat45
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
21. Kerry, pro-gun?? No way! |
|
I have a friend who is a single issue (anti-gun control) voter, and he says there is no way he would ever vote for Kerry. He can't stand him, and although I don't know the details, I'm guessing the gun issue is a big part of it.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. Any state Gore won, Kerry will win over Clark if he wins NH |
|
Clark may not even finish in front of Joe in NH and if that happens and looks like it more and more and he falls in the polls, he may drop out. Edwards is the one to watch and their is no choice when you put him up against clark in the south.
Going to be interesting.
Who do any of you think that DK and Gep and Joe will back after NH?
Do you think Clark would back anyone if he is out early?
|
Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
|
DK will be Edwards. That has become obvious. Gep says no one.
Joe will back Bush, maybe Kerry.
Clark would be a wild card. I think it would be slim pickins if he drops. I really don't know. I am not sure where you are coming up with Clark falling behind Lieberman.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
19. Heard today Gep will wait until MO to back someone |
|
Joe said he would back the winner today not bush.
Just watch, Joe may pass him. Clark is falling fast.
I never thought Edwards or especially Kerry could pass Dean. I am still shocked. If Edwards finishes 3rd, I think things will be very interesting.
|
ayeshahaqqiqa
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:29 PM
Response to Original message |
|
is that everyone keeps saying Southerners have to have someone from their area or they vote Bush. Bush was born in CT. He is a sham Texan. Frankly, from what some good old boys who said they were Dems told me, any Dem is toast in the South unless they echo the Bush conservative line.
What does this mean? Stop going after Joe Redneck and register new voters, especially minority voters. Make sure that retirees that have moved South (many of whom are concerned with Bush's reckless spending and his shredding of the Constitution)are registered and that they vote. Last of all, talk to young people. Mention the possibility of a draft, and you'll have trouble getting out of the way as they rush to the polls.
|
seventhson
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:34 PM
Response to Original message |
8. Very Interesting. It Looks like Dean still has a very good chance. |
|
Super Tuesday it is but DAMN I did not want to WAIT that long to see Dean win.
|
Frances
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
12. My theory is that the longer it takes to decide on the nominee |
|
the better it is for Democrats. The contest gets free publicity for all the Dems. It also makes it harder for the media to "Gore" all of the candidates.
I will vote ABB but I hate how the media focuses on Dean's scream and lets Bush off when there was so much negative Repub news this week: the Plame grand jury, the investigation into the Repubs going online to get Dem memos, etc.
|
spooky3
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
23. I agree with all your points, Frances. |
Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
14. Dean needs to survive the front end of this. |
|
I do think that if Dean wins the nomination, he is unstoppable. I just don't think he will win the nomination.
|
HuckleB
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:40 PM
Response to Original message |
10. Interesting assessment. |
|
I gotta say, though, even though I'm a Dean supporter, I'm now scared to death about Kerry winning the nomination. I believe that Clark and Edwards can beat Bush handily, so if your assessment pans out, I will be a happy man, regardless of the demise of my preferred candidate.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
22. Dean would do better than clark, clark needs to beat Joe in NH |
|
The way clark is falling, he may fight it out with Joe.
Don't give up on dean. I think it would be great to have Dean, Kerry and Edwards in debates.
|
HuckleB
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
24. I'm not giving up on Dean. |
|
I just know the three who have the best chance to win in the GE, and I'm going to be very happy to see one of them come out as the nominee.
|
bigwillq
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:41 PM
Response to Original message |
11. Any Connecticut Duers out there |
|
Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 11:42 PM by bigwillq
What do the polls say, if any, about our state? Who did you think will take it here? Kerry? or Lieberman?
|
Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Fri Jan-23-04 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
|
I think Dean was in front there. Then Lieberman. Lieberman would beat anyone there but Dean probably. Dean is a wild card.
|
Namvet04
(151 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
20. The only one of them that has come to my state is DK |
|
However there is some talk that we could be critical this year.
I have a thought and would love to hear back. The repubs used a senior senator over younger candidates to take on Clinton and He clean Dole's clock. Could the same thing happen to us?
|
loyalsister
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 01:29 AM
Response to Original message |
|
Not sure why you counted Dean out. Guns are a hot issue. Conceal carry barely missed on the ballot a couple of years ago. The leg underhandedly passed it and overrode the Governor's veto. Currently it's in the courts. Gun owners are mobilized, and a lot of them are Democrats. The Missouri race will be very tight.
|
Renew Deal
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sat Jan-24-04 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Tue May 07th 2024, 04:36 AM
Response to Original message |