How well will Edwards have to finish in NH to guarnatee his nomination?

[Bush loves Jiang]

2nd in the Mid-West and 3rd in New England should give the nomination to a Southernet. :-P

[adamrsilva]

1. He doesn't really need to do that well in NH

Winning SC is what he needs.

[arewethereyet]

2. all he really needs is 4th

Clark has had nothing better to do that sweet talk NH for weeks. All the others can his that state with a rock from where they live.

And there's this redneck from the south.

I think he's score 3rd or perhaps 2nd but respectable is all he needs before heading home to the hero's welcome.

[Skwmom]

3. With the corporate media cheering him on

with used car salesmen like Bill Schneider, Robert Novak, etc. cheering him on it really doesn't matter what place he finishes.

[spooky3]

26. hmm, I don't think he's too popular with corporate anything...

except well-managed corporations with strong ethics.

He's made a career winning lawsuits from wrongdoers, and he's proposing to end some of their sweet contracting deals (in Iraq) and tax breaks.

He's proposing to reward (with tax credits) corporations that keep jobs here rather than offshore.

He's also proposing to increase taxes on highly paid people such as those running these companies and those possessing a lot of stock in big companies.

So I don't see why corporate media would push his candidacy.

[AP]

4. 1-4 in NH, 1st in SC.

But if he comes in 1 or 2 in NH, he could come in 2nd in SC and continue.

If he's ahead in the delegate count, no matter where he finishes, he continues to be viable. (He's 2 delegates behind Kerry now, so if he's close to kerry in NH and then finishes much better than Kerry in SC, so that he's ahead of Kerry in delegates, he's cool.)

[AP]

8. Edwards needs to stretch the game out, 'x' the others' names out.

And put "Edwards" on top, and drop primaries non-stop for ya, senatuh!



Edwards needs time. The longer it goes, the better he does. But he's working against the clock. BUT, he seems to be generating a buzz that's powerful.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[jfxgillis]

16. Close, but no cigar

If he comes in anyplace but 1 in any state of the Confederacy, he's dead, since SC is the first such contest, it's the first place he might be in his last race.

Now, that's not an absolutely unreasonable task. It'll be tough, but he could do it. Otherwise, your handicapping's good.

[AP]

22. I didn't know there were right and wrong answers.

It's all about making an argument for yourself. If he comes in a close 2nd to Clark, but Clark does poorly in NH, and if Kerry does poorly in SC, and Edwards is ahead in the delegate count, he can make an argument for himself.

And he can also continue to argue that he's on the upswing, and needs time to get people to know him.

If there's no other clear favorite, I don't see how coming a close second to Clark could be bad. If Kerry wins three in a row in blow-outs, it's going to be very hard, however.

[jfxgillis]

24. Fair point

But don't take me too seriously. I was in more of a "sports bar" mode.

Here's the argument. Look. The sole unique asset that Edwards brings to the table for Democrats in November is that he can win, if not the South, a big state in the South, NC, and be more competitive everywhere else in Dixie.

Yeah he's got a pretty face, but there are other pretty faces, he's good on the stump, but they're all good on the stump, he's articulate, but not so much superior to the others that it's make-or-break. He's also got some disadvantages--too young, he IS inexperienced, he has NO foreign policy portfolio. Call all that a wash.

If Edwards can't WIN in the South in the PRIMARY, then there goes his unique advantage. Therefore, he needs 1sts everywhere in the Sun Belt (he can take 2nds in the Southwest, prolly) but he's betting the farm on "de land ob cotten."

[Syrinx]

5. nothing at this point can guarantee his nomination

But if he finishes as well as 4th means he'll have a decent shot at it.

[spooky3]

15. I agree with you.

[mohc]

6. Nothing will guarantee it.

Unless something unexpected happens, it looks like Kerry has 1st wrapped up and Dean is on his way to 4th. The real race is for 2nd and 3rd between Clark and Edwards. Most of the polls show Clark bottoming out around 15-16. But Edwards is on a steady incline, and could easily be around 18 or so by Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if Clark can hold him off. The impact it will have on Feb 3rd contests could be huge.

[Namvet04]

7. Too early for that but I see a chance for 2nd or 3rd

I think he will bury clark and clark will fight it out with Joe

Kerry, Dean or Edwards, Joe or Clark my picks. Remember them and come at me next week.

[Bush loves Jiang]

9. Ouch...

Clark barely keeping up with Lieberman is harsh.

[Namvet04]

10. I am just playing a hunch on some input from NH I got

NH, you never know. I know it sounds different but if I told you the Iowa results same time last week, would you have said the same thing?

[Bush loves Jiang]

13. Point well taken...

:)

[AP]

14. When Edwards is clearly past Dean in NH, he'll get a bump.

That will take him within reach of Clark. If he passes Clark, that will give him another bump. I doubt it will be enought to push him up to Kerry. But if got really close to Kerry, now that would be interesting.

[jfxgillis]

17. No no no!!!

No guts, no glory! None of this EITHER this OR that for the down ballot finishes. It won't even be worth comin' at you if you're right.

Play the Quad-fecta man: Top Four EXACT Order.

I say Kerry top, Dean trailing badly in second, inching out Edwards in third with Clark demolished by a high-single-digit fouth-place finish. Lieberman could even sneak in above Clark, but since I specified exact order, I'll take Clark over Joe for 4th.

Three tickets out of NH: Kerry, Dean and Edwards.

[Kathleen04]

11. Only way he'd have any problem

is if he finished behind Joe. ;)

February 3rd is the day that counts.

[carpetbagger]

12. He can't guarantee his nomination in NH.

He needs 4th.

He needs at least SC on Feb. 3. I don't even know how important 2d place is in the other states. I think there's three viable tickets coming out of Feb. 3, and if he finishes below Kerry and Clark, he's still in.

If he doesn't win outside the south before, wins in TN and VA on Feb. 10th should make him the challenger du jour. If he can push that into a win in Wisconsin a week later, he's in good shape going into March 3. If he wins California and Ohio, he can pile on March 9 (FL, TX), and then he should have the momentum to win IL. This will make him the victor, although he'll probably need to pick up some extra delegates over the next two months.

[jfxgillis]

21. Clark is cratering in NH for some reason

I see your avatar and I'm not saying this as a flame, but the Globe, Herald and Gallup tracking polls are all out for today and Clark is drifting down.

Frankly, even though I'm not a Clark man, I don't understand the erosion. Clark's been up here full time, he's getting good press and running very engaing infomercials on local tv, 30-minute, 15-minute and 5-minute versions which I LOVE. I hate 30-second spots. A month ago I thought Clark had a chance to win outright.

I think pulling out of Iowa turned into a lose/lose tactical blunder for Clark.

[union_maid]

18. Nobody's going to be guaranteed a win based on NH

If Edwards does well it'll be bigger for him than for Kerry, Dean or Clark, though, for obvious reasons. He's a contender after Iowa. Doing well at all in NH will be a huge boost for him.

[leftist_rebel1569]

19. Well,

It would be helpful to do well in NH, but it isn't really that necessary. As long as he gets SC, though...he'll do fine. :)

[flaminbats]

25. Edwards' ability to win SC is tied directly to his fate in N.H..

If Kerry wins N.H. with Edwards as the runnerup, then S.C. will be a two-way battle between the candidate endorsed by Hollings and Alex Sanders...vs. the man who grew up there. Otherwise South Carolina shall likely become a contest between the winner of New Hampshire and Wes Clark.

[flaminbats]

20. Just to remain competitive, Edwards needs a strong second in N.H..

to become the frontrunner Edwards must surprise voters with a victory!

Coming in third killed Bob Kerrey back in 1992, and not being competitive in New Hampshire killed Gore's chances in 1988 of winning the nomination...

[AP]

23. In 1992, were there three politicians from neighboring states running?

Nope. Edwards can come in 3rd or 4th and still blow people away.

We also haven't heard from the black vote yet. If that vote lines up behind one candidates and if that results in victories, forget about IA and NH.

[flaminbats]

27. "In 1992, were there three politicians from neighboring states running?"

No...but if there had been even two local candidates, they would of split the Tsongas vote. I'm sure Carville would not of let this kind of opportunity slip by!

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1992.html

One more point regarding black voters, Clinton won these votes overwhelmingly in 1992. This will not be the case in 2004, these votes will be split by Sharpton, Edwards, and whoever the winner in New Hampshire will be...which is another reason Edwards must either win or come in second. Most southern black voters are either undecided, or split between Edwards and Sharpton. This means that for now, Edwards in in the same tight spot Gore was in during 1988. Gore was battling in the with Dukakis for the white primary voters, while having to fight for minority voters with Jesse. The only ways to overcome this challenge is to win all of the southern primaries, or to first win some primaries outside of the south.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1988.html