Faux prediction for NH

[Renew Deal]

They are saying:

Kerry
Edwards
Dean
Clark
Lieberman

It's those two clowns Mort and the other one.

The segment is over.

[jenk]

1. Clark will finish ahead of Dean

it'll be a fight between Edwards and Clark for 2nd, a toss up

[TSIAS]

2. Kondracke, Barnes, and Hume all picked Dean to win IA

Right up to caucus Eve.

Shows what they know.

[adamrsilva]

3. They all got Iowa completely wrong

The Crossfire guys had better predictions, with Carville being dead on.

[Namvet04]

5. Has carville predicted for NH? Morris was also right on if

I remember. Wonder what Dick is predicting. People hate both carville and morris but sometimes they really know what is going on.

Not yet time to sing bye bye to Joe and Clark, but I hope soon so we get it to 3 good candidates and have some great debates.

[mikehiggins]

21. Most likely we'll be here until the convention

and very possibly until November.

It is all well and good to want to call the race at the starting gun but very few contests play out that way.

As long as the money keeps coming in (possibly $2 million this week alone) Clark will keep on keeping on. The campaign is a national campaign and we have yet to see how Kerry will fare in primaries in other parts of the nation.

Try to keep in mind just how much of a surprise Iowa was to everyone and where Howard Dean was not so very long ago. Kerry has got a bounce from Iowa and he is competing in a state that sits right across the street from Massachusetts.

The surprise to us was Edwards and we'll have to see how that one plays out. It is possible that John wouldn't have scored quite so high, and the drama would not be as intense, if Clark had been running in Iowa, but that is all guess work.

What isn't guess work is that Dean still has money and more is coming in, and Clark has money and more is coming in. Dean and Clark both have widespread organizations in many states out working the ground on behalf of them, and with the proportional allocation of delegates they both will be garnering convention votes all the way down the line.

So, don't count on having just three candidates any time soon.

Or at all. Its going to be a tough, ugly race to the finish line and the wrestler and the swimmer are likely to be in it just as long as the hockey player and the football player.

[Namvet04]

4. I posted early this morning my picks and have at me after NH

I listen to some key people on the ground in NH. Here is my gut from it.

1 Kerry
2&3 Edwards or Dean
4&5 Joe and Clark to fight it out and I hope both are good dems and drop out after NH.

Things are really bad for clark as the report on cnn I was watching was at a rally for Clark and he could not find a single NH voter to ask questions. They were all from out of state. That does not sit well with NH voters. The reporter comment on how far clark had fallen in the polls since Dean, Kerry and Edwards came back. Guess that may be why he has to go to other states for people? Hope none were of his old pro-war and bush group he was part of.

[BootinUp]

6. ridiculous n/t

[bicentennial_baby]

9. So sorry for you

not!

Clark had 1000 people at his event in Portsmouth NH this morning, and they could only let 900 in b/c of the fire code. There are many in NH, both Democratic and Independent voters, who have committed their support to General Wesley Clark.

[Jerseycoa]

13. Ignore it, BB

These little sweetie posts have been popping up everywhere today.

[bain_sidhe]

14. What's your beef with Clark?

Seriously, I've not seen a single post from you where you didn't try to push the line that Clark's support is equivilent to Lieberman's. Seriously, I've seen many different polls, and in all of them Dean and Clark fluctuate between 2 & 3. Not a single one has Lieberman in double digits, and most of them have Edwards at least 5 or 6 back from number three. I agree that Edwards seems to be moving up, but if anything, that'll make it a three way race for second/third. NOTHING indicates Clark dropping to single digits. So, where are you getting your "numbers" from?

[tishaLA]

16. Accentuate the positive--

this time, s/he didn't spell Clark's name "Clarke".

[Piperay]

20. I think the real

problem for them is that Clark is the one who has the best chance of beating the chimp. :shrug:

[Cuban_Liberal]

7. Kerry, Dean Edwards, Clark.

That's my bet.

[Zynx]

18. I agree.

That will make it a three man race. Clark can't survive a fourth place finish. He might even fall to fifth. His poll numbers are collapsing and this depresses me because I like him.

[mikehiggins]

22. Why would fourth place depress you?

The only problem I have with all this is Edwards. That one really surprised me. His good looks and relentlessly positive campaign really do seem to be paying off for him, which I didn't think would play in Iowa OR New Hampshire.

I am more unsettled by that than I am at not scoring highly against two New Englanders in a race held in New Hampshire.

The opening scenario of the Clark race was not rhetoric, you know.

No money, no staff, no policy positions, no supporters.

The Draft Clark movement provided some of what was needed but building a national movement over the course of four months is a remarkable achievement and not to be discounted. The tracking polls might not be looking good but the Clark organisation has been growing and strengthening all over the US, even as attention is focused on the first two contests.

If we come in fourth in New Hampshire and then make a reputable showing in February the situation will be entirely different. Kerry is riding high now but how likely does it seem that he will be able to carry on a lengthy primary campaign, faced with two very persistant and well funded opponents in Clark and Dean? How often has that happened in the past?

Kerry sank everything he had into these two contests, including his mansion. (and did anyone look into the details of that one? That must be some shanty if he could refinance it for that much money.) Once his forward motion slows in the South and the West we'll have a much better picture of what is really going on than can be shown by two opening contests.

If we don't score well over the next twenty primaries, then I'll start getting depressed, but not until then.

We're in it as long as Clark is, and I don't see any reason why he would even consider withdrawing.

It's not like he has a hockey career to go back to, after all.

[tishaLA]

8. Barnes also said that Lieberman might be SECOND

I can't tell whether they are openly trying to manipulate public opinion at this point or whether they are drug-addled.

[bicentennial_baby]

12. Probably a little of both :-)

Hey look, Wesley's train just chugged a little further! :bounce:

[feckerman]

10. EASY!

Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Clark
NonLiberalbutlikeableman

Kerry - Dean - Edwards will be within 8 points.

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. They are so funny!

Not!

What the hell do they know? Sheesh! :eyes:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. You spend an awful lot of time at FAUX.

Just an observation.

[Renew Deal]

19. I was flipping channels.

I actually watch a lot of the news and comedy stations so I pass it a lot.

[bigwillq]

17. It goes like this, imo

1. Kerry
2. Dean
3. Clark
4. Edwards
5. Lieberman
6. Kucinich
7. Sharpton