Why Latinos Are Walking Out on the Democrats

[losdiablosgato]

Why Latinos Are Walking Out on the Democrats
By Dan Schnur, Dan Schnur, a Republican political consultant, teaches at the Annenberg School for Communication at USC. He served as communications director for McCain's 2000 presidential campaign.


On his recent victory tour of Washington, Antonio Villaraigosa admonished a group of Democratic activists that their party needed to concentrate more on outreach and diversity. But if Los Angeles' first Hispanic American mayor in 133 years really wants to show his party how it's done, he could easily point to the other side of the nation's partisan divide, where Republicans have made unprecedented inroads toward building a solid base among Latino voters.

While Cuban Americans have historically voted Republican by wide margins, primarily because of the GOP's strong anti-communist credentials, Americans of Mexican, Central American and South American descent have been equally ardent supporters of the Democratic Party and its candidates. But that Democratic advantage is quickly becoming a thing of the past. Over the last three presidential election cycles, Latino American support for Democrats has steadily declined, from the 72% that voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 to the 53% that John Kerry received last year.

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Although these percentages are based on exit polling and the precise numbers are still being debated, the overall trend is beyond dispute, and a party that loses nearly a quarter of a core constituency in less than a decade is a party with cause for distress. And when that constituency represents the country's fastest-growing demographic — the U.S. Latino population has doubled since 1980 and is expected to increase even more rapidly over the next 20 years — Villaraigosa has every right to be concerned.

Various theories try to explain this shift in voting behavior. Like most ethnic groups that immigrated to America during the 19th and 20th centuries, Latinos became more conservative economically as they achieved greater prosperity. Also, Latinos serve in the armed forces at much higher levels than any other ethnic or racial group, leading to higher support of the Republican agenda for national security and military preparedness. Finally, there are rising numbers of Latino voters, both Catholic and evangelical, who relate to the GOP's platform on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.


http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-schnur6jun06,0,3725636.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

[losdiablosgato]

1. Although I do not agree with this totally

I did see three GWB signs on the lawns of hispanic families on my street last year. This does bear looking into to stop any repug shift.

[xultar]

6. Well one thing to do is to stop the one-night stands. Dems only

court Blacks and Latinos when there is an election a foot. After that the Dem power machine vanishes.

I think Dean will stop that but. Blacks and Latino Christians will fall prey to all of that values talk and be more apt to vote against gay marriage and to limit abortion rights.

So when Dean & Hillary said we need to be more inclusive we do. But hardliners here tend to slam the door on anyone who have religious stances against abortion and gay marriage.

[losdiablosgato]

8. No matter what some say we need the moderates too.

We need them to win.

[Pirate Smile]

27. There was an author on Book TV on C-span whose book I think is

relevant to some of the erosion (or potential erosion) of Hispanics, African-Americans and portions of the white population too.

He was talking about two different values in American society - traditional values and self-expression values. He said the party that people believe represents traditional values almost always wins.

America's Crisis of Values:
Reality and Perception
Wayne E. Baker

"Has America lost its traditional values? Many politicians and religious leaders believe so, as do the majority of Americans, based on public opinion polls taken over the past several years. But is this crisis of values real?

This book explores the moral terrain of America today, analyzing the widely held perception that the nation is in moral decline. It looks at the question from a variety of angles, examining traditional values, secular values, religious values, family values, economic values, and others. Using unique data from the World Values Surveys, the largest systematic attempt ever made to document attitudes, values, and beliefs around the world, this book systematically evaluates the perceived crisis of values by comparing America's values with those of over 60 other nations.

The results are surprising. The evidence shows overwhelmingly that America has not lost its traditional values, that the nation compares favorably with most other societies, and that the culture war is largely a myth.

The gap between reality and perception does not represent mass ignorance of the facts or an overblown moral panic, Baker contends. Rather, the widespread perception of a crisis of values is a real and legitimate interpretation of life in a society that is in the middle of a fundamental transformation and that contains growing cultural contradictions. Instead of posing a problem, the author argues, this crisis rhetoric serves the valuable social function of reminding us of what it means to be American. As such, it preserves the ideological foundation of the nation.

Wayne E. Baker is Professor of Management and Organizations and Professor of Sociology at the University of Michigan, and Faculty Associate at the University's Institute for Social Research."

Democrats are frequently seen as rejecting traditional values when we actually don't when we discuss our personal lives.

I think perception is a large part of the Democratic Party's problem in reaching a broader audience.

The Republicans have done a great job lying, smearing and demagogue Democrats. It has been very effective and we have to fight back without conceding this territory to them.

edit to add - during a search for the author, this small post from DailyKos came up and I think it gives a good small synopsis on the issues:

"Wayne Baker on C-Span 2 Today (none / 0)

Caught the lecture given by Wayne Baker on his book "America's Crisis of Values: Reality and Perception" on C-Span 2 and found his discussion very intriguing. Definitely has made me decide to go get a copy of it tomorrow. Has anyone read this work and what did they think of it? I think his elaboration during the short lecture at U Michigan of the idea of Americans' sense of "values" with our sense of individualism and how these two ideas create cognitive dissonance is quite interesting and a differnet way of framing the whole question of "values" in American life today."

[Cha]

36. Wonder how they feel now..

with so many latinos getting killed in bush's war on Iraq.

Whatever do latinos or anyone else for that matter have to gain from a lying, cheating, stealing, murdering fascist regime?

I just realized the "anyone else" could include a whole bunch of corporations and greedy millionaires who don't want to pay their fair share to support bush's war on Iraq.

[xultar]

2. The same reason why Blacks are. But hard liner Liberals and Dems

won't listen.

Dean and Hillary are both trying to open the tent. We the people keep slamming the door on them.

[Teaser]

3. They're not (bad polling data).

This conclusion is almost entirely based on exit polling now shown to be wrong.

[losdiablosgato]

4. Maybe but like I said in my post on this thread

I ahve seen a good number of hispanics who I know were born in the US moving to the repug party. If you look at the demographics this is an issue we need to look at hard.

[wmills551]

12. Take head out of sand.

Your article states that 39% of hispanics voted for Bush. So exit polling doesn't give an exact number, but the trend is clear. Dems need to listen to what is important to hispanic voters.

[Teaser]

13. Take your head out of your

sandbox.

I cite data, you cite nothing. Oh, and it takes more than 2 data points to indicate a trend.

Just sayin.

[losdiablosgato]

15. I live in a city that is very hispanic, and I see them going to the right

I have seen the first and second generation of hispanics born in the US getting more and more repug. We need to reach out to them and listen to their views if we want to win any sort of national election.

[wmills551]

18. I accept your data

Your link states that 39% of Hispanic voters went for Bush in 2004. This is not acceptable to me, and points problems with the party. The problems are articulated in the original post. They will not be easy to fix, but it is not useful to ignore them. For starters, I believe we need to find a way to truly accept people into the democratic party who believe there needs to be limits on abortion.

[losdiablosgato]

20. Mention that to loudly around here and you will be flamed

Love it or hate guys and gals we need moderates to win.

[vi5]

21. Again, who is kicking these people who are moderates on abortion out?

Last I checked in fact we elected one of them our minority leader and he is doing a fantastic job.

[wmills551]

23. That is a good point

[Nederland]

43. DU for one

Just look at some of the threads in the forum below and see how people here are reacting to those that suggest the party should moderate its position on abortion and attract more moderates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=229

[vi5]

47. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.....

Again, this goes back to the fact that why individual citizens of the democratic party with no authority or power within the democratic party aside from his or her vote, portrayed as the embodiment of the entire democratic party, when our leaders and elected representatives, and our leadership are not given credit for their moderation.

Again, Pro-life Harry Reid as our minority leader is the prime example.

Why is the fact that a pro-life senator was elected by members of the party to represent that party not given more weight in these discussions than what some semi-anonymous poster on a message board? Why is the fact that the leader of the DNC has called for moderation, or that Hillary Clinton has called for moderation or that our presidential candidate last year expressed a fairly inclusive, nuanced view on abortions and reducing them, never given any credit, yet one persons extreme comments on a message board signal such a major problem for our party?

That person on the message board has one vote like the rest of us. They can use it how they like. They don't want to vote for a pro-life person then they don't have to. But the talk I'm hearing from every person in a position of any power within the democratic party is moderation, moderation, and more moderation, with a side of inclusiveness. If the anti-abortion crowd isn't going to be satisfied until every single democratic voter cowtows to them and bows before their infinite moral wisdom, then we're never going to get anywhere anyway so why should we bother.

[Larkspur]

51. Dean's moderation is not the same as HIllary's (DLC)

Dean's moderation is willing to listen to people, who don't agree with us, but we won't abandon our Democratic principles. On issues like abortion, Dean believes that both pro-life and pro-choice Dems can agree on decreasing the number of abortions by improving sex education, making birth control more available, and increasing economic opportunities for everone. While Dean courts pro-life Dems, he does not support overturning Roe vs Wade but is able to get both pro-life and pro-choice Dems to agree on reducing the number of abortions voluntarily, not by punitive legal force, like the Repukes want to do.

Hillary's moderation is pandering to the Right. She doesn't support overturning Roe vs Wade, but she uses language that lip syncs the Right's view of the world, so she ends up re-enforcing the Republican "frame." That is the same ruinous path Bill Clinton used on welfare reform. Bill stole the Republican moniker "welfare reform" to pass legislation that made it harder for poor people to stay on welfare if they couldn't find a job in 5 years, so in practice, Bill Clinton ended up being co-opted by the Republican rhetoric he stole. This kind of moderation is what has triggered the current civil war within the Dem Party.

[vi5]

53. I agree but my main point still stands...

The democratic party has any number of people willing to listen to the other side and meet halfway. Yes, I agree with Dean's method more than Hillary's, but the fact is that it's proof that there is something for everyone and many degrees of moderation. For people who say that the democratic party "needs to do more" on this front, particularly with regard to abortion is absurd.

[Cha]

37. :)

[Deja Q]

5. Depends on outreach. Dems in power seem to reach out for corporate cash.

Not people.

That should be turning ALL OF US AWAY.

While the above does not apply to all, it does apply to the DLC, who doesn't want anti-war people or folks like MICHAEL MOORE (a true leftie and a saint, all things considered) representing them.

Sorry, the DLC has insulted many of us. And if they think they're still going to get our votes, they will need to work hard to get them.

As if it matters to them. The repukes would eventually win and they still get corporate cash. Win-win for them. Lose-lose for us.

[xultar]

10. Sorry HT you are wrong. This has nothing to do with the DLC.

Dean was right. We need to open the doors to anti-abortion folks. Come up with a plan to be more inclusive of those with different views in that area than we do.

Bill and Hillary's Safe, Legal, and Rare will work.

[vi5]

14. Hey, I have an idea.....how about we elect a pro-life minority leader?

Oh wait. We did that.

Or how about a prominent anti-abortion group publicly outreaching to religious and anti-abortion folks to start some dialogue about how we can all work together to reduce the number of abortions?

Oh wait. Did that too.

I'm sorry but this doesn't have to do with abortion as much as it does people voting their religion. When that religion abuses it's power like so many of these churches have done, how do we counter that? With priests standing up there and decrying abortion but not point out all the other lives that are lost due to republicans policies.

I forget who said it on this board but the anti-abortion people aren't pro-life (if they were they would vote in accordance with protecting ALL life) or even anti-abortion (if they were they would be in favor of reducing the number of abortions through education, birth control, anti-poverty programs, etc). They are pro-birth.

[losdiablosgato]

16. Pope John Paul II called for no war in Iraq and

the Catholic church is stongly anti death penalty.

[vi5]

17. Exactly, yet the discussion we have about religious voters is abortion

Why is that? Why did bishops in the church talk about denying communion to pro-life democratic politicians but not ones who are pro-death penalty or who voted for the war?

Why would someone who votes for Bush or republicans based on abortion be considered someone who votes their religious values, but someone who voted for Kerry or any dem becaus they disagreed with the war or want a more nuanced death penalty stance be considered secular or without values?

[Al-CIAda]

31. "Faith based initiatives" (Payoffs, bribes, blackmail) n/t

[zalinda]

24. Because that's where the money is

Until true campaign reform is achieved, a politician will always go where the money is. I've heard that about 6 weeks after an election, the politician has to start bringing in donations for his re-election. Is is easier to talk to 100 people for corporate donations or 5,000 individual people.

I think the government should finance elections. Each candidate has to get a required amount of signatures, including a certain amount he personally solicited and then they get government financing. They get only a certain amount, with no outside contributions. We could then see how they spend their money and if they are fiscal responsible and creative. Non millionaires could then actually run for office.

zalinda

[losdiablosgato]

25. we have the best government money can buy, but unfortunately we....

do not sign the checks.

[CWebster]

7. The yuppie party doesn't do outreach

to the untouchables.

and I give you the "New Democrats" whose day has come and gone but who won't relinquish their glory days.

[applegrove]

9. Really? I heard that it was the other way around? n/t

[losdiablosgato]

11. I live in Houston, yes very red, but also very hispanic

and I would say of the hispanics I know who I have talked politics with (about 10) it is split 60-40 in favor of the repugs. I post this as a warning. We can not win with out them now and more so in the future.

[applegrove]

22. I think that Bush's numbers are going down in the last few months -

are they not?

[dhinojosa]

19. To many hispanics, being a republican, will somehow "make them rich"

It doesn't make sense I know, but I'm hispanic and the family and friends I know, this is the biggest reason why hispanics are republican. They equate the big trucks and homes to being republican, and want to get in on the action. The other reason, why hispanics are republican, is that they married a republican, which is another go figure reason.

Why am I a democrat? Well because without social security and federal assistance growing up, I'd be dead before 18.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

26. RIGHTWING TALKING POINTS......WHY DO WE KEEP POSTING THEM???

WHY DO WE CONTINUELY LET THEN FRAME OUR DEBATE...JESUS H CHRIST!

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[losdiablosgato]

28. Because this is the reality of the situation

Like it or not we need to find out why and fcind a way to reverse it.

[Cats Against Frist]

29. pure propaganda

They've tried the same thing with blacks and college students over the last couple of years. Just trying to erode the Dem base, like the totalitarians they are, by spreading false "trends."

It's part of that "we're history's actors," thing. They're acting to create a new reality.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. EXACTLY!

[losdiablosgato]

32. Maybe maybe not

This has me worried. I live with and am friends with many hispanics. The town I live in outside Houston is 50% hispanic. I saw a lot of hispanics vote R last year. I do not think this is propaganda, I have seen it.

[Bridget Burke]

33. My State Rep & State Senator are both Latino/Hispanic/Whatever

And I don't see them turning Republican any time soon. Of course, I don't live Outside the Loop.

[losdiablosgato]

34. I live in Pasadena

The trend I see is that Hispanics that were born outside the US are more likely to be dem, but those who are 1st and 2nd generation American are more likely to be independent ot rep. On my street alone I saw 3 houses owned by hispanics with GWB signs in their yards last year.

[Bridget Burke]

35. Pete Schnur--"Republican Political & Media Strategist"

www.polisci.berkeley.edu/Faculty/bio/visiting/Schnur,D/

His illustrious career includes 5 years as Chief Media Spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson. Petie Wilson really got along well with his Latino constituents!

The Democratic party should NOT take any group for granted. But I wouldn't panic about an article written by a known Republican propagandist.

[realFedUp]

38. I guess he's not talking about California...

because Latinos are currently up in arms
against Arnold and his wish to "close the borders".

[Spectral]

39. I wonder if this guy knows anything about Hispanic radio and media

I think that is where the answers will be. I'll bet their media is more conservative.

Oh, and the Catholic thing is also very important too.

[losdiablosgato]

40. Exactly

I am Catholic as well and the church is a big part of their lives.

[Spectral]

41. I am a pro-choice Catholic and sometimes it gets really hard

to sit through church. They go on and on about abortion but they never talk about this immoral war.

[losdiablosgato]

42. As I recall JPII came out against it before hte shooting started.

[Spectral]

44. Yes. But it was kind of a weak reaction locally.

They don't talk about the war except to ask for the safety of soldiers and "peace in the middle east" in general. The new priest talks about personal issues only. Not much politics. But the old priest was into the anti abortion thing and that's pretty much all we heard.

The church has a lot of nice people and they have service groups and things. But they are very pro-military. I live in a military town, and lots of the parishioners know somebody over there or have friends who do.

[googly]

45. Just not the Latino's, but also Asians, and other assorted immigrants

leave democratic party once they become financially successful.
And majority of immigrants eventually become successful because
they bring work ethic with them. Even immigrants of African ancestry
become financially better off than their American born counterparts.

IMHO the only way the democratic party can hope to again become the
majority party is by getting away from the "welfare" mentality. We
have so many good issues going for us such as cleaner environment,
abortion rights for women, fairness in taxation, and so on. But the
knee jerk politics of soaking the successful is why we are now a
minority party.

[losdiablosgato]

49. I agree with you to a point

I have long believed that we as a party need to find a way to reaxch out to those who are successful. My grandfather died quite well off, but he worked in a refinery. Be litterally started digging ditches with a shovel. But he worked hard and saved wisely. The party needs to be more inclusive.

[liberalpragmatist]

57. Sort of - but Asian-Americans have become MORE Democratic

Over the past elections. George H.W. Bush WON the Asian-American vote in 1992, but in 2004, Kerry carried it heavily.

Chinese-Americans especially have shifted. Japanese-Americans are Democratic. Vietnamese-Americans are still predominantly Republican, as I think are Philippino-Americans. Indian-Americans are largely Democratic (although I never did find a breakdown for the 2004 results - in 2000 it was something like 60/40 Gore).

[MojoXN]

46. In a word...

Catholicism, or at least its corrosive influence. Didn't you know that we're the "Death Party", and our opponents promote a "culture of life"?

MojoXN

[CAcyclist]

48. The fact is, they are NOT!

The Southern Poverty Law Center disputed the Republican claim that more latinos voted for Republicans in 2004. Unfortunately I cannot find the link. But I remember reading an article whereby their own exit polling showed no shift of latinos toward Republicans.

[Bridget Burke]

50. Yes. And the article was written by a Republican propagandist.

He was also Governor Pete Wilson's press secretary. Wilson was not especially in tune with California's Latino citizens (& non-citizens).

[Tomee450]

52. Exactly

Not only the Southern Poverty Law Center, but a Hispanic group also disputed the claim that Latinos are trending Republican. They reported their finding on C-Span.

[LoZoccolo]

54. This is something I've been trying to point out regarding religion.

Finally, there are rising numbers of Latino voters, both Catholic and evangelical, who relate to the GOP's platform on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

The GOP made a big deal out of the "moral values" segment of the vote in the last election, despite the fact that it's a waning factor (40% in 1996, 35% in 2000, 22% in 2004). I feel they do this so that we'll react sloppily and attack religion itself rather than the erosion of the separation of church and state, and further their own strategy of making themselves appear as the religion party, and us the anti-religion party (rather than the religious freedom party). We have to question ourselves any time we find ourselves playing a role in the strategy they picked. A lot of people here like to attack evangelical Christianity and conservative Catholicism itself, rather than church/state issues, without realizing that the Republicans want us to do this in order to push certain segments of the African-American and Latino vote to their side.

[LittleClarkie]

55. could it be because of our Tex-Mex prez?

I wonder if it will evaporate with a different president.

[Catfight]

56. I'm sure this was all said when slavery and interracial marriage was

the fear of the day. I didn't even have to read the article, I just scanned it for the words 'same-sex marriage' and the rest of irrational fears. I remember when Latinos couldn't vote and people we're fearful they'd get rights and ruin this country. Conservative is just another word for oppression.

[desi826]

58. Dems are "starting" to get in serious..

trouble. They aren't in hopeless hot water yet, but the water's beginning to boil.

Bush didn't get 39% it was more like 31, and Kerry got something like 69% not 53.

The Black Commentator website did a great piece on this new Repub phenom of finally breaking the Dem hold on the 2 biggest minorities in this country.

They haven't broken shit, they just want to have an excuse when the Repub starts getting all these votes from minority neighborhoods in the next Presidential election.

Of course, it will be fraud but who will think that since Repubs have made "miraculous" progress over the years?

Religion has nothing to do with this.
Nor does abortion.
Both have been around for years, but it didn't stop either group from voting Dem.

Both groups wouldn't be looking anywhere if Dems would start paying attention to these groups on a regular basis. They are up for grabs because Dems aren't being good stewards of their flock.

Period.

That is the long and the short of it.

What they need to do is set up town hall meetings in the minority sections of the districts-states they represent and listen to the concerns of both groups.

From there, come up with an agenda that they can fit into the national one that will let people know they are not being taken for granted and you will see a marked difference in the amount of minorities voting Repub.
Des

[agincourt]

59. The Catholic church has outright campaigned for the GOP

This makes the going tough. I also wonder if Bush's open the floodgates for cheap labor immigration policy might hurt as well.