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Then there is the uncertainty. Over the next three and a half years, the vast majority of the posts with the greatest responsibility in the House will be turning over. Very likely, all three top Republican leadership posts will change hands, as will 15 of the House's 21 committee chairmanships. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., is expected to retire after the 2008 elections, if not before. And DeLay's mounting ethical, legal, and even re-election problems strongly suggest that he will not be in the GOP's House leadership in January 2009.
There's probably a 75 percent chance that DeLay will retire, resign, or lose before then. A quick exit by DeLay would set up a fight for the job of majority leader, and the winner would almost certainly become the next speaker. If DeLay manages to hang on until 2009, the leader and speaker posts could open up simultaneously, creating quite a different succession battle....
Pessimists within the GOP privately fear a high-profile political-corruption trial during the 2006 midterm election campaign, with high-ranking Republican lawmakers being called as witnesses, or even targets -- thus depressing Republican turnout and galvanizing Democrats. Such a turn of events would create the possibility of significant GOP losses in the House, in the Senate, and among the party's governors. GOP optimists take solace in the relatively small number of House and Senate seats that are likely to be in play, making a Democratic takeover of either chamber quite unlikely. Although American politics never remains static for 18 months, and a lot may change before November 2006, the changes won't necessarily be positive for the GOP.
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