SC is going Dean!

[brainshrub]

Today I spent the day canvasing Greenville, SC. A few thoughts:

1) Unions are canvasing & organizing ANIMALS! We had the Local 1199 SEIU (Service Employees International) helping us. They were incredible!

2) I did not see another candidate's people at all.

3) The Dean grassroots is deeper and more active than ever. The Iowa defeat has galvanized us to work smarter.

4) Democracy is hard work, but it feels good.

5) Dean is going to win the SC primary.



YYEEEAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGG!!!!!!!! :bounce:

[AP]

1. Not if he finishes 4th in NH.

[Zynx]

2. In all likelyhood he is finishing 2nd.

So there.

[brainshrub]

5. He isn't going to finish 4th.

Hell, last week Kerry was polling around 5%!

Dean is going to win NH. Watch & learn.

[KC21304]

8. Did you do any watching and learning in Iowa ?

[not systems]

11. Yep. Fortunately it is a big country and we are...

going to get a part of it for Dean.

Learning as we go then on to DC to take back the white house.

You haven't heard?

[brainshrub]

13. Yes.

We have been having meetings and analyising what happened.

In a caucus, the Kerry people have a tight organization...but SC is going to be an election.

Kerry will run out of money by the middle of March, in the meantime the Dean campaign will have won in SC.

[molly]

17. Having meetings and analyzing what happened

are not going to help Dean now. Money doesn't matter now - voters do. Dean had lots of money and lots of campaign staff and he was still Dean.

[not systems]

24. Nice outreach.

Dean is not out as much as you wish it.

Were back!!!

[brainshrub]

27. Dean didn't have the fire-fighters Union in Iowa.

Kerry won't have them in SC. Plus, SC is an election, not a caucus. I didn't see a single Kerry canvaser all week in SC and as far as I can tell, Kerry hasn't organized well here yet.

Kerry STILL doesn't have the campaign staff and money Dean has. In the end this will be about grass-roots support, not establishment support. And here in the south Kerry doesn't have the grass-roots he will need for the long haul.

Your right about one thing: Dean is still Dean. Kerry sold us out when the chips were down on the vote for Iraq. That won't happen with Dean.

[Mass_Liberal]

16. ooooo

low blow. You are good with the cutting comments. But don't count your chickens before they've hatched. We've got plenty of good people working their assess off in cold NH, and their work will not be without benefit.

[Guaranteed]

29. After all, what happened in Iowa was that the tracking polls were 2-3 days

behind reality.

Which we're still dealing with here in NH. And Dean has his momentum back.

[not systems]

9. Not going to happen.

Win, place or show.

Edwards might get forth in NH if he keeps praying, though.

[Namvet04]

22. Clark will finish 5th and Joe 4th

Dean, Kerry or Edwards will be in the top 3.

I think it will be Kerry, Edwards, Dean and hope the rest help us beat bush by dropping out.

Keep your hopes up dean backers, it is a 3 way race.

[overground1]

37. I think Clark will edge out Lieberman, but just barely.

Lieberman has been flat since the race started. He's not going up. Clark is heading way down, but it is unlikely he will drop below Lieberman before Tuesday.

Kerry will finish first. the only question is who will come in second: Dean, or Edwards?

[ozone_man]

25. Dean will be the come back kid in NH.

That will give him the boost to take SC.

[cthrumatrix]

43. I agree....let the press spin it...but it's ahuge comeback

[overground1]

36. He won't finish lower than a close 3rd

If you follow the opinion dynamic polls you'll see Clark is on a steady decline and will finish below both Dean and Edwards. 2nd place is going to be very close between these 2.
No one is even challenging Kerry for first anymore.

This is all that is assured:
Kerry will finish 1st, Clark will finish 4th, Lieberman will finish 5th.

[lancdem]

3. I think Edwards will be very tough in S.C.

[quaker bill]

4. I agree

This is well short of over. First NH then on to SC

[frustrated_lefty]

6. The Deans have touched people

He's going to do well. He's been controversial, but it gives him a platform from which to speak in SC.

[Namvet04]

7. I hear many took a look at clark and are leaving fat to others

Dean will benefit from this. One reporter this morning from NH on tv was at a Clark rally and he reported how he could not find a NH voter to talk to. He said that since the big three came back to NH, clark has fallen rapidly as the first string arrives of season dems.

No rookies is the message and a good one. I think being so pro-war and bush has really woke people up to Clark.

I still think Edwards will do well here.

I was never for Edwards until I heard him right after the scream speech of dean. Everyone that wants bush out, should listen to the way he talks to people. He has that gift like clinton.

[Jerseycoa]

Amazing

You've been dropping this all day like birdshit. :eyes:

[Namvet04]

20. You sound like the few that are for clark, you should learn to

talk to people and not use the poor words you select.

How far has Clark fallen in since the big three of season vets came back? The primary process is to weed out the rookies. Maybe in 12 he will show us all he is a real dem.

[VolcanoJen]

10. Can anyone provide a link to SC, or post-NH poll data?

I'm dying to know how the candidates are looking, post-New Hampshire.

[Southsideirish]

12. Good work, brainshrub - I was doing same in Iowa last week.

BTW, have you seen the real version of the Iowa rally and yell at www.idiomstudio.com ? It will relieve the minds of all Dean supporters - it was a perfectly normal rally which the media distorted playing only one mic. We need to spread the word.

[brainshrub]

14. Can you come to SC?

Your experience will help. You can stay at my house in Asheville, NC. (Near the border only 1 hour to SC)

[frustrated_lefty]

15. Yes

The pundits never show the minute of speech following the yell, where Dean talked about ISSUES.

It's time to take the influence of the media out of politics. Talk about the ISSUES. I don't care who you support. The media is now reducing Kerry to a man who skates. That's not a good thing, although it's presented in a positive light. Make our guys talk about ISSUES and make your decision on that! Forget CNN, MSNBC, Fox, the networks don't give a shit about ISSUES.

[genius]

18. I just saw a poll that had him way down there in SC

I think he's on his way out.

[Namvet04]

23. Must be clark, he is really falling in NH

Dems are waking up to how he supported bush and the war.

Time to pick one of the three top leaders who never supported bush.

[Guaranteed]

30. When will they wake up to Kerry's IWR vote?

It's a massive liability...

[genius]

32. It's not as bad as Dean's Biden-Lugar march to war.

Bush followed Biden-Lugar more than he followed the IWPR.

[overground1]

38. Dems are waking up to Clark being 2-faced

and perhaps a little bit not right in the head.

[mitchum]

19. Not according to the members of my family who are living there

Word among the people who actually live there is that a Kerry/Edwards ticket looks very attractive

[Lydia Leftcoast]

21. Don't speak too soon

As a staunch Kucinich supporter, even I thought Dean was going to win Iowa, judging from the number of Dean signs on local lawns, reports of Dean volunteers blanketing Iowa, and the fact that the "decided" voters I spoke with were mostly Dean supporters.

But it didn't happen.

By the way, when I was door-knocking for Dennis, I didn't see any other candidate's people either.

This is clearly an election in which it is unwise to claim victory before election night.

[jsw_81]

26. You're dreaming

The fact of the matter is that there are three candidates, Kerry, Edwards, and Clark who have a much, much better chance of winning South Carolina than Dean.

Kerry is strong because he's a veteran, he just got the endorsement of the state's senior senator, Fritz Hollings, and will probably have a ton of momentum after winning New Hampshire; Edwards is a favorite-son who was actually born in South Carolina; Clark is also a veteran (and a southerner), and he should do well, especially if he does better than expected in New Hampshire.

Dean will be lucky to come in third in South Carolina, and there's a real possibility that he'll come in fourth. But I have a feeling that he will withdraw from the race after losing New Hampshire. He may scream and rant about "never giving up," but the truth is that his candidacy will become an absolute joke unless he wins the Granite State. If he can't win a primary in his own backyard, how the hell is he going to beat Bush?

[Tesha]

31. You write this as though NH folks *LIKED* Vermont.

If he can't win a primary in his own backyard,
how the hell is he going to beat Bush?

You write this as though NH folks *LIKED* Vermont.
In fact, there's a lot of animosity between these two
states. NH is, basically, far-right Libertarian while
Vermont is schizophrenically split between old-time
New England Repubs and a very large contingent of
crunchy granola liberals.

NH is the *BIRTHPLACE* of the Republican Party
(literally).

NH has *NO* Democrats in statewide or national offices;
they're all Right Wing Republicans. VT has one Democratic
Senator, one Independent Senator (Jim Jeffords, the former
Republican), and one Independent (well, "Socialist" really,
nudge-nudge, wink-wink) Congressman. Yes, they have a
Republican Governor, but that's only as a result of
Dr. Dean's stance on Civil Unions, combined with a Dem/
Green split that fractured lefty support in the last
Gubernatorial election.

You can not assume Dean will win NH just because it's
"his own back yard". Nobody in either state looks
across the Connecticut River for guidance. If he
does well in NH, that should send a POWERFUL message
about his abilities to attract support ACROSS THE
POLITICAL SPECTRUM.

Tesha

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

28. SEIU is Dean's biggest trump card

I know SEIU - they will be Dean's biggest asset.

[cthrumatrix]

39. great to here...

[Stuckinthebush]

33. The polls don't show him in first

In fact, the one on MTP today had him at 9%.

I think Dean is gone. I hate to be such a defeatist, but this scream thing hit him at a critical time. There just is no time left to turn around the misperception that he is "angry" or "unstable".

It pisses me off to no end, but I think that it has defeated him.

[Renew Deal]

34. The same way the "grassroots" worked in Iowa?

:eyes:

[brainshrub]

35. Even better!

We learned a lot from Iowa.

The only defeat is one where you don't learn anything.

[HazMat]

42. lol. I think Team Dean is still waiting

for the "army" to show up.. for the hordes of "new people to process" to rush to the polls.. lol.

[jenk]

40. And then reality hit

South Carolina

John Edwards-21%

Howard Dean- 9%

[brainshrub]

41. Last week Kerry was around 5% in SC.

A lot can change in a few days.

Dean has the momentum. You'll see! Never underestimate the Dean-side of the Force.