TAP: How Kerry won Iowa

[blm]

http://www.prospect.org/webfeatures/2004/01/schaller-t-01-23.html


New Math
How a trio of savvy Kerry campaign workers used a fresh voter equation to win Iowa.
By Thomas F. Schaller
Web Exclusive: 1.23.04

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The conclusion from Iowa is that former Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) and Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) lost because their machines were no match for the positive, resonating messages Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.) used to motivate caucus goers.

That story line is only half-correct. The important back story from Iowa 2004 is that Kerry's field organization, though perhaps smaller in size, was far more efficient and better organized to catch Iowans as they fell away from both Dean and Gephardt.

Call it the Kerry trapeze net -- or, more accurately, the Norris-Strasma-Whouley net. In midsummer, Kerry's state director, John Norris, started identifying which way registered Democrats on Iowa's voter list were voting or leaning. Nothing new about that approach -- all campaign staffers with any brains and enough resources do that.

But Kerry's team did things a little differently, emphasizing quality over quantity, depth over breadth. Instead of focusing on the "hard count" of committed Kerry supporters as a quantifiable number, Norris slowly but steadily developed what might be called "hard counters" -- captains who, because they actually knew their neighbors personally, would be able to maintain support and deliver it on caucus night.

"We built leadership first," says Norris. "We found competent precinct captains at a local level. And we did that knowing that the mass amount would not make their mind up until the last minute. The whole theory was that if and when we do get hot, we have the apparatus to capture it."
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[sallyseven]

1. And what is wrong with that?

That is why Kerry is ahead of bush. He is smart and has a good organization.

[molly]

2. There is a saying "work smart - not hard"

AMEN to this....."But Kerry's team did things a little differently, emphasizing quality over quantity, depth over breadth. Instead of focusing on the "hard count" of committed Kerry supporters as a quantifiable number, Norris slowly but steadily developed what might be called "hard counters" -- captains who, because they actually knew their neighbors personally, would be able to maintain support and deliver it on caucus night."

[Cheswick2.0]

24. you aprove of anti semetic push polling?

You approve of calling people at 3:00 am and telling them you are calling from the Dean campaign? I don't think that is what you mean to say is it?

[molly]

30. Excuse me - but wtf are you talking about?

[NashVegas]

34. Something Like this - Push Polling

On Thursday night at about 7 p.m. in Lisbon Iowa, Dick Stater and his wife Suzette Astley — a volunteer coordinator for Dean for America — were at home being interviewed by Richard Hoefer, a Dean supporter, who is making a documentary about the former Vermont governor's campaign. Also in the room was Susan Alexander, a neighbor and Suzette's friend, who came over to be filmed for the documentary.

As the camera rolled, they received a 17-minute phone call from Jacob Thomas. Thomas identified himself as a volunteer for the Kerry campaign in Cedar Rapids who was conducting voter identification calls. Alexander said she received a similar call earlier in the evening

Thomas, the Kerry volunteer caller, told Fox News he is a 19-year-old volunteer and that he remembered the call well. During the call, the documentary camera recorded Suzette Astley's side of the conversation. As a Dean volunteer coordinator, she was clearly aware that the call she was receiving was potentially inappropriate and she methodically wrote everything down.

When asked on the call, Astley identified herself as a Dean supporter, whereupon she said Thomas began to say negative, misleading and occasionally "false things about Dr Dean."

Astley said Thomas called Dean an "environmental racist." At this point she is heard on the tape saying "Does Senator Kerry know you are saying these things?" She then asked to speak to his supervisor.

Astley said supervisor "Derek" accused her of lying about the tone of her conversation with Thomas. When Astley challenged him on the "environmental racist" remark, she said Derek complained that Dean supporters "just don't seem to care about the facts."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,108750,00.html

Thomas does not deny his call or dispute Astley's description of how his supervisor participated.

Thomas confirmed that he tried to persuade Astley to change her views of Dean and he expressed some pride in his efforts to Fox News.

"I was a high school debater, so I like to go through the facts," Thomas said, adding that it was a a routine call. "I was going down my random list. Sometimes when I get a Dean or Gephardt supporter on the phone it turns out a lot of the time they don't know the issues."

But Thomas said he would have handled the call differently had he known who Astley was. "I had no idea she was a volunteer coordinator for Dean, If I had I would have hung up right away," he said.

[progressivebydesign]

3. Yeah, I saw those "positive" posters the Captains were using..

I've seen too many negative, nasty things coming from Kerry's camp, now being revealed since Iowa. I don't buy the positive spin from either Edwards or Kerry in Iowa. BOTH were revealed to have used very negative training materials, flyers, and tactics in Iowa. This is pure conjecture from whomever wrote that. There's a lot more to it, and it ain't pretty.

[blm]

6. Are you aware of what the Dean camp had done in Iowa or is your outrage

selective?

Pushpolling, spreading rumors about Kerry's cancer being back, Kerry is a "corrupt Washington insider", infiltrating Kerry's campaign office....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. Only one campaign got popped for push-polling in Iowa.

And it wasn't Deans.

[ModerateMiddle]

35. whether you like what that kid did or not

that was NOT push polling. He identified himself as a Kerry volunteer. In a push-poll, the caller presents himself as an objective poller, and uses language like "How would it affect your opinion of Gov Dean if you knew he was an environmental racist?"

[Lydia Leftcoast]

4. That's kind of what I thought

They relied on local personal connections to deliver votes.

[WilliamPitt]

7. Yeah, that never happens in politics

[Cheswick2.0]

26. I don't think it is okay to use anti semetic push polling

just because "that happens in pollitics".

[oasis]

32. Using a smear in the guise of a question is NOT okay. But you knew that.

[paulk]

37. I don't understand the "anti semetic" part

I've read the article and I don't understand where you're getting that from...

[mzmolly]

5. Riiiight. ABC caught Kerry's people on film push polling. Thankfully

it wasn't the Dean campaign, or the media would still be talking about it.

There are also some flyers that Kerry distributed to my understanding?

[blm]

8. Flyers about taxes...fair play.

Spreading rumors about Kerry's cancer being back...unfair play.

[mzmolly]

13. "Spreading rumors about Kerry's cancer being back...unrelated"

Next...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. Noooooo.

Flyers about Republicans and flip-flops:






Flyers about Republican lobbyists:






Flyers about "gaffes:"

[KC21304]

9. But we were told here, over and over, that Dean had all these

young supporters coming in by the bus loads, and they had everything wrapped up for Dean. So if things didn't work out like they said it would, somebody must have done something dirty, illegal, or immoral to steal it out from under them.

And now they are trying to convince Clark supporters of the dirty deeds done to them, and maybe it would be a good idea if they joined forces. Hope the Clark supporters are not taken in.

[Gin]

10. what does "push pulling" mean?

gin

[cosmicdot]

12. someone pays telemarketers to canvass .....

political telemarketing technique probably out of the Lee Atwater Book in which telephone calls are used to canvass vast numbers of potential voters, feeding them false and damaging 'information' about a candidate under the guise of taking a poll to see how this 'information' affects voter preferences. The intent is to 'push' the voters away from one candidate and toward the opposing candidate. Political telemarketing, using innuendo and, in many cases, clearly false information to influence voters; there is no intent to conduct research.

i.e., my Iowan friend said they received calls asking such questions as:

- Did you know that Howard Dean is married to a Jew?

- Did you know that Dean is an environmental racist? (whatever that means)

- Did you know that Dean is a non Christian ?

- Would you change your pledge from Dean to Kerry if you knew that Dean was supporting Gay marriage ?

- Did you know that Govenor Howard Dean has been diagnosed as a manic
depressive, prone to "fits of rage" ?

my Iowan friend, also, reported that:

- Calls came at 3 in the morning posing as from the Dean campaign.

- GOPers went to caucuses in droves, switched party affiliations and sided with Kerry........that one precinct in Sioux City had 54 republicans switch parties at the door, and all went to Kerry.

`````````````````

[blm]

16. That was the work of the veterans who are leaving in droves

from the Repub party. Last night on Cspan, I saw 3 different Repub veterans tell Kerry at a townhall they were switching to vote for him.

That's what happened in Iowa, too. Don't miscalculate the efforts of the veterans. They are way more powerful than internet message boards.

[mzmolly]

17. Your saying that Veterans are campaigning dirty for Kerry?

Vets are *push polling* for Kerry?

[blm]

21. No. Veterans are switching from the GOP to vote for Kerry.

Why would you assume anything different?

Listen...there were volunteers who went overboard in the campaigns. Kerry's camp got rid of the guy from theirs. Dean's did, too.

Why pretend to be aggrieved and outraged at the antics of those individuals, but not outraged at the antics of those from your camp?


I hreard Dean people got into the Kerry camp the last couple weeks to try to stir up a scandal for the Kerry campaign. Is that true? Could those attacks have come from Dean people themselves knowing that Dean was slipping in the polls?

[kayob1]

33. I could be wrong

but I believe they were trying to get the phone scripts. I wonder why they would want to do that??

[Cheswick2.0]

23. I don't think so

It is the work of republicans trying to get Kerry nominated because he can be beat so easily in Nov.

[paulk]

38. Is this your objective opinion

or do you have some information on this you'd like to share?

Two polls today show Kerry beating Bush, so I'm curious how you arrived at this.

[blm]

41. HAHAHAH...watch Cspan. They come up to Kerry all the time

and say they are switching.

Max Cleland has been speaking to the vets groups.

Give him some credit for reaching out to the vets and the power of that outreach of Max and the other veterans.

[KC21304]

40. Is this what is on tape ? Now that would be handy.

[oasis]

20. That was Karl Rove's work. Meant to create outrage among decent Iowans.

[emulatorloo]

25. This doesn't make sense as a "Kerry Ploy"

as Kerry supports "gay marriage"

I think you need to look elsewhere for the source of this.

as to GOPers, we had about 380 at our caucus, I knew a lot of them, and nobody had nice enough clothes or haircuts to be pubs. I don't think the pubs at least in my precinct had the energy to come out.

[salin]

45. except that at least one of the claims is recorded on film

as one of a push-poll themes by a Kerry volunteer (see post 34) - the "environmental terrorist" comment.

[ModerateMiddle]

36. ..

:eyes:

[KC21304]

42. Just one of your Iowan friends received all of these calls.

That is amazing. That is almost unbelievable.

[mzmolly]

14. Dean did have numerous young supporters coming in.

40% of those polled in Iowa said they voted for their SECOND choice.

In otherwords, they settled for a lesser candidate because Dean was put through the media ringer.

Also, Deans young supporters were not as organized as their elders. So, Kerry gets some credit for organization.

[angee_is_mad]

39. This Clark supporter isn't fooled or a fool

I hope and pray that I am not the only one on here that feels this way and can see through it.

[Namvet04]

11. Kerry's team is smart and lives in the future as do

Dean and Edwards. Clark is more interested with his friend moore about a war 40 years ago. People who vote could care less about viet nam. Clinton did not go and he served well and end all the nonsense about your status in viet nam.

My only concern that Kerry will be look at like Dole was and we should pick a young fresh talent like Dean or Edwards.

[Abigail147]

43. They all just kept rolling over for the Pubs

Howard Dean did not. Kerry is not a man of the people, and his time has passed.And he keeps stealing Dean's material.

[DjTj]

15. ...but how did Edwards get second?

with neither the machine nor the strategy?

[mzmolly]

19. Because Kerry and Edwards were many peoples *second* choice

and when it comes to a caucus situation, that is a critical factor. That is why it's so hard to predict outcomes in caucus states.

I was concerned about Iowa when I learned that Kerry/Edwards were second choices for most Iowa voters.

Reason being. Dean/Gep damaged the other badly with negative campaign ads. Additionally the media has damaged Dean.

Some say Dean may have piqued to soon, thus giving him more time under the media spotlight?

Live N Learn.

Looking foward To NH and beyond!

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

22. "We built leadership first" - i.e., elistism and vanguardism

Exactly what you would expect from someone like Kerry. It's certainly effective.

[emulatorloo]

28. I do not follow your logic. . .

Please explain. . . .

[Cheswick2.0]

29. He's the real deal alright

around he we would say "he's a real piece of work".

[molly]

31. Are you somewhat upset?

[sandnsea]

44. vets, firefighters, farmers

Yeah, a real bunch of elitists.

[blm]

46. Sorry you see fire fighters and veterans and farmers as "elitist"

I expected more compassion for these working folks who happen to disagree with you on who the best candidate is.