Kerry and Edwards will lose in South Carolina....

[deminflorida]

simply because of the African American vote going to Clark. Clark should move quickly to South Carolina and get this thing going...Dean went down in Iowa, Kerry goes down in South Carolina. I think people are going to be surprised at how poorly John Edwards is going to do in South Carolina because to the African American vote there...

The South will decide who it's favorite son is. Edwards while an intelligent person and a decent man does not have the experience in Forgein policy or the trust of the African American community to level the playing field in Washington on social policy.

This my opinion as as Southerner, so take if for what it's worth...

South Carolina

Clark
Edwards
Kerry
Sharpton
Dean

Arizona

Clark
Kerry
Dean
Edwards

Oklahoma

Clark
Edwards
Kerry
Dean

New Mexico

Clark
Kerry
Edwards
Dean

Delaware

Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Clark

Missouri

Kerry
Edwards
Clark
Dean


The race turns on Feb. 3, the train is on schedule.

[molly]

1. OK - for what it's worth - the south loves vets

[deminflorida]

5. Your right they do, however the controversial stance that Kerry

took after the war, even though correct is going to get him trouble with South Carolina vets. He will be thought of as a male "Jane Fonda".

[Toucano]

8. Even from "Tax-a-chusettes"? n/t

[TheStateChief]

16. Not that I don't think Clark is good...

but Al Sharpton will take the majority of the African-American vote in South Carolina if recent polls are accurate...I'm sure Sharpton will stay in the race to the end hoping he can play some kind of role at the convention should things not shake out the way TM hopes (i.e. an early nominee)...

[cally]

2. I thought Edwards did rather well

in the African American community. In SC, you also have Sharpton getting 10 to 15 percent of the vote. As a Clark supporter, I hope he wins those votes, but I'm not sure.

[Namvet04]

3. Clark is sinking fast and Tim will finish him off tomorrow

Might make a great sect of def but we would have to watch his past lobbist and corporation dealings.

SC will be edwards, dean, kerry, clark or maybe al in front of him

[deminflorida]

Don't think so....

Clark has impressed most on the MTP appearences. They're trying to trip him, he's the greatest threat to Bush...but he gets thru it..

[Namvet04]

15. I just do not trust him

Sorry, my gut is seldom wrong. I like edwards and dean. Fresh and young. New Ideas.

Look how well this party did with young and bright leaders like clinton and jfk. Yet we go out an recruit old generals who were praising bush. Makes no sense when we have dean and edwards.

Dean needs to stay dean. He made the mistake of listening to others and brought his wife to iowa and going to church with carter was stupid. He does not go to church like most americans and those that do, do not really care about being like Jesus.

[spooky3]

4. Edwards could not have been elected Senator without the votes of

African Americans.

I can't speak for African Americans--maybe you can--but I doubt that any group votes as a bloc. Many will vote for Clark, many will vote for Sharpton, many will vote for Kerry, etc....and many will vote for John Edwards.

[deminflorida]

6. North Carolina...

South Carolina is a totally different Animal altogether.....

[beaconess]

9. Edwards has very strong AA support in South Carolina

While other candidates have been focusing on gathering endorsements from national leaders, Edwards has shored up support from key local leaders, the ones who make a difference on the ground.

As we've already seen, it is a mistake to underestimate him.

[beaconess]

10. Exactly

[arewethereyet]

7. the south loves local boys who return home heros

Edwards qualifies on Iowa alone. Clark has done nothing but spend money. If he goes 1 or 2 in NH then he can change that. Edwards didn't have the money to spend but still managed to impress Iowan's because of his record and message.

I think you misjudge black support for Edwards but I guess we'll be finding out soon.

[deminflorida]

11. Edwards will have to address the Confederate Flag on the state

capital down there. I think he'll have to say it needs to come down, like Clark did.

[arewethereyet]

13. I guess

but its not a national issue. Smarter to just say its a South Carolina issue and personally support the concept.

[Namvet04]

17. No issue, ask bill and hillary, ark still has it flying

No issue and bill can tell him what he and hillary did to handle that issue.

[beaconess]

18. Been there, done that

Edwards did this a long time ago:

"Speaking to reporters in Columbia, Edwards waded into a controversy about the Confederate flag here, saying, "The flag should come down." Charlotte News Observer, January 21, 2003

http://www.news-observer.com/front/story/2118628p-2016789c.html

[LBJBestEver]

12. If Edwards upsets and comes in 2nd in NH, Clark is done <nm>

[Namvet04]

19. I think clark will have a tough time beating Joe

It is time to narrow it down to the top 3 (Kerry, Dean and Edwards).

Clark can become the sect of def and DK in charge of the peace corp or go back and let us get him to be minority leader of the house.

He would be bold and not like Nancy. I would have loved to see DK respond the other night instead of her.

[Kipepeo]

14. I'm from SC and I'm for Dean

Well, SC originally (until about 3 years ago). My dad is a loyal Republican but he is pissed at the way Bush has handled the economy, and specifically the way the Bush Tax has turned the SC economy to POO.

He's going to vote for Dean in the SC primary b/c of his economic record in Vermont. Even if you're not a Dean supporter you have to admit that his record is a good way to win over Republicans who aren't so thrilled with Bush's economic plan right now.

I think other Dean endorsements, like those of CMB and Jesse Jackson Jr. go a long way in the black community also. Plus, even if he doesn't win in SC I am happy that he was the first candidate, as far as I know, to address the racist "Southern Strategy" that Republicans employ. That's the only way we're going to win white southerners back to the party: when we start talking about how the Repubs depend on them to vote their racial fears instead of their economic dreams.

Great article on this: http://www.blackcommentator.com/65/65_jackson.html

Separate and equally great article from the same site: http://www.blackcommentator.com/68/68_cover_dean.html (this is the one I originally meant to link)

[Hawkeye-X]

20. Dean is very very popular in the South

Last SC polls showed me that Dean has the top two positions in SC, plus AZ, NM, OK, MO, ND, and OH. Clark is sputtering YET again once most folks realize he's just an empty suit once the shine of his four stars becomes more and more tarnished.

Kerry is finished in the South because he's polling very poorly in SC, and so is Edwards. He may poll modestly, and finish 2nd or 3rd after Deans victory in Feb 3rd, and continue.

Kerry and Clark will have no choice but to drop by March, leaving Dean and Edwards and maybe Kucinich (he's more or less that annoying mosquito that follow no matter where you go)

[JI7]

21. only 1 person wins

if they lose, they lose. i actually think edwards is the strongest there. and kerry has been the lowest along with kucinich for a long time so it will be VERY tough for him there. but that's part of this and he has to get through it if he wants the nomination.