Brand New ARG Poll Jan 22-24

[ringmastery]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

NH Democratic Tracking
Jan 22-24 Percent

Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%
Kerry 38%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 0%
Undecided 8%

[jenk]

1. The Doctor and the General better look in the rear view mirror

:)

[ringmastery]

3. great news for edwards

this is a three day rolling average and he went up 2 pts since yesterday. That means he has to be polling 18-19% in today's sample.

[arewethereyet]

12. he's climbing 2 a day

Kerry is just on a rocket but our favorite southern boy is on a very solid track himself. Inverse of Clark.

Dean seems to have bounced off the bottom and could make a challenge for 2nd.

And more significantly, everyone has decided.

Should be interesting.

[Quixote1818]

15. Not nearly enough Independents in this sample

For a poll of New Hampshire to be acurate it would have to have about a 50/50 split of Democrats and Independents. New Hampshire has 38% independents and 28% Democrats but only a little over half of the independents end up in the final vote. That means instead of only 33% of independents being in the sample their should be just under 50%. Those voters are going heavely to Dean and Clark.

[janx]

19. Actually, independents aren't even mentioned as such.

There's something called "undeclared"--and that has been going up while the overall sample size has gone down.

As this has happened, Kerry's numbers have gone up.


??

[Nicholas_J]

28. Undeclared arenot necessarily independents

Are not independents.

When you are called by these polls they ask which party you are going to vote for, and then go on from there. They do not directly poll by getting lists of democrats, but call individuals by regular phone lists and ask whioch party they support, and then go on to ask question. Undeclared is just that, they have not decided at all, Democrat or Republican.

THe polls out of New Hampshire state that Kerry has the broadest overall support, over both Democrats and Independents.

And actually they are included in this poll. So they are included in eac candidates polling data. Which means Kerry has already got a significant share of independents

[Nicholas_J]

27. All these polls

Cover not just democrats, but use the term "demcratic voters" in their polling, indicating that they are not differntiating between Democrats an independents but are asking people who are stating that they are going to vote democrat, who they are voting for. This includes both Democrats and independents.

[DjTj]

17. They must be driving an ambulance.

:crazy:

[molly]

2. So - Kerry is leading everyone by at least 20 points!

you go guy!!!!

[Nicholas_J]

30. Yup

Kerry's lead is pretty much unstoppable, and Dean has only come up in this one poll with him taking significant hits in all the others, staying the same in Zogby.

[LBJBestEver]

4. If Edwards comes in 2nd it would simply be huge. <nm>

Kerry~Edwards '04

[jenk]

6. at one point Dean led him 40%-4%

and now he WILL pass dean

talk about comeback kid :)

[Brett]

14. not bloody likely…

Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers.

[DjTj]

18. Welcome!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Brett]

20. thank you

damn glad to be here.

:)

[arewethereyet]

16. if he comes in 2nd heading south its huge-er-er

Edwards-Kerry 04

If he starts picking off those 2/3 states then his fortunes REALLY take off and the talk of Mass liberal kicks in and the reminders of CLinton and Carter take hold and he's the last man on the stage in Boston.

But its still a big if...

[LBJBestEver]

21. Don't give me chills!!!

Love stories like that.

[arewethereyet]

23. people put a lot of creedence in old polls in the upcoming states

history shows that as the hot hand emerges, numbers fluxuate dramatically. You don't have to look any farther than the Iowa impact to see it's already happening and America is watching NH carefully to find a hot hand and, more importantly, an electable candidate.

IF and its a really BIG if, if Edwards can snare another 2nd then its Katie bar the doors and I can't help but believe that Edwards captures people's imaginations.

I have my fingers crossed that lightening will strike twice.

[mb7588a]

5. Aren't the other polls

showing NH becoming more competitive?

[jenk]

8. only the old one's

Kerry really doesn't have to worry about anything

[lancdem]

10. Only Zogby thus far

[saltpoint]

7. If the poll is right, it looks as if --

-- Senator Lieberman isn't exactly thrilling New Hampshire voters.

I want to like this guy, but I don't understand why he's running to the right of Bush on so many issues.

The surge in Senator Edwards' numbers looks as if he may surge into second place on the 27th.

[Toucano]

9. Just pointing out...sample size down 92.

Doesn't invalidate the results, IMO. I just noticed it and thought I'd pass it along.

[Renew Deal]

11. They keep messing with the sample

Overall sample down. More Independents. This is ugly.

[SadEagle]

13. The commentary from the pollster + babbling from me

"Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers." -- ARG(http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/)

Now, Kerry's huge jump suggests that his number is probably at least in that 38-40% range... (I am too lazy too workaround real numbers, can be higher).. That's puts Dean's daily at around 21%-ish, which is not close to Kerry, but at least some upswing. And the 10-point movement up from Thursday's numbers is not bad at all. Tomorrow's poll should be interesting for us Dean supporters since it'll drop the 22nds numbers, which are probably the low point.

Anyway, Kerry looking impressive, but we will see how it goes wrt to the others

[Skip Intro]

22. Dean up 10pts in 2 days - wow

pretty substantial - some might use the word, well, I won't, don't want to jinx anything, but 10pts in 2 days...

Agree, tomorrow's rolling numbers and daily numbers should be interesting. For a Dean fan, given this past week, I don't think we could ask for more at this moment. Another good sign.

:D

:toast:

[jsw_81]

25. Your guy is down by 22 points in his own backyard

And you're happy? Dean is finished.

[Skip Intro]

31. Yes, jsw_81, I'm happy about many things. Thanks for asking.

"Your guy is down by 22 points in his own backyard"
Posted by jsw_81
And you're happy? Dean is finished.

Well, I'm happy that my flu is breaking (finally!!!). I'm happy that I might have found a job (way too early to tell tho). I'm happy my mother is going to try to quit smoking. I'm happy we're going to take the WH back from the thieves.

But right now, I'm happy about the following quote from the poll about which this thread was created:

"Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers." -- ARG (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/)

Doesn't sound exactly like someone who's finished to me. And, in this instance, its 17 down, not 22. As long as we're on the same page. ;)

And, jsw_81, I'm happy to belong to such a great Democratic community such as DU. And I'm happy to make your acquaintance. I don't believe I've had the pleasure.

Looking forward to more of your positive, insightful input in the future.

Cheers.

[DJcairo]

26. That's all good and well, but I would point out that JK's are up too

Way up...4 points since the last track which means his daily numbers are up just as much, if not more than Dean's. That certianly doesn't hlpe Dean much. I'm feeling more and more like he narrowly gets second. As a Kerry supporter this is the best outcome. It blocks Clakr and Edwards from claiming much coming out of NH and with Kerry winning by 15-20 points Dean can't really claim to have come back. H ewas supposed to win, no, had to win, a week ago. Now he'll be lucky if he gets second.

[Nicholas_J]

29. Sorry

Dean is up one point from his low on the 22nd. He has gone from 15 to 16 in the latest ARG poll put out today:

American Research Group, Inc

Jan 22-24

Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%
Kerry 38%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 0%
Other 0%
Undecided 8%

MoE 4 percent

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Kerry has gone up 4 point in this period, and undecided has gone down 4 percent in this period...

Strange co-incidence

Actually Dean was at 18 point in the 20-22nd poll so he is down from his polling on the 22nd.

[mohc]

32. He's talking about this line at the bottom of the poll...

"Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers."

But his 22nd numbers had to be dismal...

[Skip Intro]

33. Exactly. I wasn't making it up.

I said something like "Dean up 10pts in 2 days"

and this is what the same poll, from the same website said:

"Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers." -- ARG (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/)

The three day rolling average still includes data from the media-manufactured "scream" bs-storm, and before the debate, Primetime interview, and Letterman spot.

Didn't seem that confusing to me.

[mohc]

34. Keep in mind

That the reason they do rolling averages is because of the high error in a daily poll. Looking at the trend lines, the daily for the 24th probably looked like this:

Kerry 40
Dean 23
Edwards 17
Clark 14

Dean for the last two days was probably right around 13, and popped over 20 in a day. That is either a great trend for Dean, or MoE.

[Skip Intro]

35. Good point

I'm guardedly optimistic here, but not delusional. (well, not about this, anyway... ;) )

:)

[mitchum]

24. Absolutely Beautiful Data!

Knock 'em out, John (both of you)