According to my calculations: NH: #1 Kerry, #2 Clark or Dean, #4 Edwards

[kerry-is-my-prez]

I'm a bit of a math wonk and I've been looking at the daily tracking numbers for several polls for the last week/week and a half and if the numbers trend the same - this will be the results in New Hamp:

Edwards is moving up but too slowly to be able to place above third according to most polls, Clark is moving in a slightly downward trend - in a few polls, he has "evened out" after dropping slightly after the Iowa caucus and a few bad days. Dean has been dropping rather steadily but is "evening out" in a few polls. No one will be able to catch Kerry and he will have a pretty big night.

This would be the result IF everything stays the same (big IF) and no candidate has a major disaster OR a major "stand out" event. The weak point - what to do with the undecideds. I threw most of them in with Kerry, and a few to Edwards and Clark, with about 1% to Dean.

Note: the last two polls, Fox and Gallup don't seem agree with the other ones. They have very low numbers of "undecided" voters - which would lead one to believe that they "presuaded" undecided voters to
pick a candidate or put "iffy" supporters of a particular candidiate into that candidates "slot."

ARG:

Kerry (43)
Clark (20%)
Edwards (18%)
Dean (9%)
Lieberman (6%)
Kucinich (1%)
Others (2%)


Boston Herald

Kerry (42)
Clark (17)
Edwards(17)
Dean (12)
Lieb. (6)
Kucinich (1)
Sharpton (1)
Others (1)


Suffolk Univ

Kerry (43)
Dean (21)
Clark (15)
Edwards(12)
Lieb. (6)
Kuchinch (1)
Others (2)


Zogby

Kerry (42)
Dean (19)
Clark (15)
Edwards(11)
Lieb. (7)
Kucinich (2)
Sharpton (1)
Others (1)


CNN/USA/Gallup

Kerry (42)
Dean (23)
Lieb. (11)
Edwards(11)
Clark (9)
Kucinich (3)
Others (1)


Fox

Kerry (53)
Edwards(11)
Lieb. (10)
Dean (9)
Clark (9)
Kucinich (3)
Others (1)

[isbister]

1. Is that first ARG Dean one

correct?

[HereSince1628]

2. So, what are the confidence intervals aroung your predictions?

[mb7588a]

7. I'll give 72% confidence :) nt

[HereSince1628]

11. Are you sure that isn't 80 proof?

If she is a math wonk she should be able to report the percentage of the vote for each and the confidence interval.

If she can't cough those up, I suspect her "calculations" are...ah ...less than rigorous.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

13. You're probably giving me too much credit... lol!

Ya never know what's going to happen.... THAT'S what the problem is - never bet on people.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Fuzzy math in works.

I reject the logic of Kerry winning NH, because he will be the easiest person for * to defeat, and I am also wondering the logic and the wisdom of Kerry to run despite his major health problems. He does not look well, IMHO and woukd not benefit to continue to run if his cancer is back and extremely aggressive.

[mb7588a]

5. Where are y'all getting this asinine cancer idea?!

He's fine. Didn't you see him PLAYING HOCKEY today?!!!???

[LBJBestEver]

6. How is Dean more electable than Kerry? <nm>

[XanaDUer]

12. Well, since you ask:

:)

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4049942/


Newsweek Poll: Kerry most electable.

[ModerateMiddle]

8. Yeah?

if his cancer is back and extremely aggressive.

There are quite a few new rumors being tried out on this board lately, eh?

[XanaDUer]

10. That's what I thought, too.

Pretty sick, actually.

Geez. Okay, let's all do the doctor thing: I think Dean has high blood pressure because of the suffusion of blood to his face when people ask him questions he does not like.

So, I think for his health, and for his family, he should then be careful and perhaps drop out, especially with the anger. That is a key symptom of a Type-A personality.

:eyes:

[XanaDUer]

9. Are you his doctor?

He looks tan and fit.

Wasn't the cancer cured?

What are you talking about?

[LBJBestEver]

4. LOL look at Fox's poll