Boston Globe Poll: Kerry 38, Dean 15, Clark 14, Edwards 12

[DJcairo]

Jan. 23-24 (2-DAY TRACK) Previous results in ()

Kerry 38 (35)
Dean 15 (15)
Clark 14 (15)
Edwards 12 (12)


Here are the post-debate reaction numbers:

Debate impact among the 64% who say they watched:
Candidate More likely to vote: Less likely to vote:i Net impact:
Kerry 26 5 21

Edwards 13 2 11

Lieberman 6 5 1

Sharpton 2 2 0

Clark 8 9 -1

Kucinich 1 4 -3

Dean 9 16 -7

t looks like Kerry-Edwards were the big benefactors of Thursday night's debate.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/tracking_poll/

[aldian159]

1. Kerry played it safe

didn't do/say anything risky, which is very cool when you're ahead.

[mitchum]

2. Absolutely Beautiful Data!

Knock 'em out, John!

[Dagaz]

3. The NH polls are notoriously wrong

I'd be happy but really surprised if Kerry won by a landslide again. This has been Dean's state for a while now and I just don't believe that all his voters turned away on that one speech. If the polls are true then the people in NH are an incredibly fickle bunch.

[jfxgillis]

4. You are correct about NH polls ...

... and if you see Kerry dipping tomorrow (as I expect), the final outcome'll be a lot closer than this, which is probably Kerry's maximum spread.

I think you're a little wrong about Dean's speech, though; probably a factor, yeah, but the main factor is the bandwagon effect.

I'm not sure it was ever "Dean's state," or, at least, that his support was always softer than it looked. No refection on Dean, primary voters are always softer in support because the contenders always have a lot more in common than contenders in a general election.

Although I AM a Kerry guy from Jump Street, the difference between my #1 and number #3 is quite small (Kerry, Dean, Edwards in that order) before my two #4 and #5 "hold my nose" guys, Clark and Lieberman, who are also virtually indistinguishable in rank.

[OneBlueSky]

5. Dean finishing second or third will not be the story . . .

the story will be the magnitude of his fall in such a short time . . . if Dean indeed comes in with anything close to 15%, he's done . . .