If Edwards will take second what does that mean for Dean and Clark?

[Quixote1818]

I think if Dean comes in Third or Fourth he is toast but Clark remains even more viable on February third if Dean gets nailed in New Hampshire even if Clark comes in fourth. Dean can't survive coming in third twice. This is Clark's first primary state and it's in New England. I think the Clark's best hope is if Dean gets knocked out in New Hampshire then he is a diminished threat in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Dakota. All states Clark is leading in right now.

[LBJBestEver]

1. It positions Edwards awesomely for SC

And it puts JFK and JRE as the clear frontrunners. JRE can set himself up well for Feb 3 in places like SC, OK etc.

[Quixote1818]

2. South Carolina will be Edwards first Clark second I agree

Clark has to win the South West states

[uconnyc]

3. Clark is toast if JRE finishes ahead of him

What does he have to stand on? Kerry has the military background and JRE is a southerner.

What would Clark's message to SC and MO voters be? Vote for me because I'm the most electable, even though I couldn't mount a campaign in Iowa and JRE a little known southerner beat me in NH?

[Loren645]

5. Yeah! 'Cause he'd lose a whoppin' 1% of delegates in NH!

That'd leave, after Iowa, only 98% up for grabs.
Doooooooooooooomed...

[LBJBestEver]

7. Early primaries are huge for momentum.

Sure it's a small number of delegates, but they are huge for fundraising and momentum. Look what just winning Iowa has done for Kerry.

[Quixote1818]

8. I don't think so and hear is why

Clark is leading in the South West states and with Dean out of the Way Clark would most certanly win those three states and maybe North Dakota. Edwards is polling awesome in Missouri and would probably win. Edwards would win South Carolina as well. Delaware would go to Edwards or Kerry. That leaves Kerry with almost nothing. Well, Who looks like the winner on Feb 3rd. Clark and Edwards a close second! Kerry would loose his momentum. Then it becomes a Clark Edwards race.

[Quixote1818]

10. Feb 3 will be a circus because

Everyone will be protecting the states they are strongest in. Clark will be all over the South West and Edwards will be going back and fourth between Missouri and South Carolina. Kerry will have to go all over the place and that will hurt him. Also Edwards does not have much money to advertise much in the South West States.

[mikehiggins]

4. Lets just wait until the votes are counted, okay?

Remember how Dean and Gephardt were fighting to the death in Iowa just a couple of days ago?

There are two days left before the voting booths open and one of them includes an appearance at the Lifetime debate.

Things could look entirely different on Tuesday morning.

[DJcairo]

6. I'd hesitate to say now

There hasn't been any real polling done of those states in weeks. ARG is supposed to have some 2/3 numbers up tomorrow so we'll see. My bet is you see Kerry on top in AZ, ND and MO at least.

[Quixote1818]

9. We have had no advertising accept for Clark and Dean

Hear in the South West. Kerry was polling at around 2% in the south west states.

[AVID]

11. one of them got first

Clark 1
Edwards2
Kerry3
Dean4

[newyawker99]

12. Hi bigskydem!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: