McCain was trailing Bush in Polls then won 48% to 30% over Bush

[Quixote1818]

In New Hampshire. What can we gather from this? It seems like the Independents are a wild card. Could Kerry still loose to someone?

[Loren645]

1. And he wasn't supposed to win. The annointed one was supposed to win.

So they smeared him away.

What I gather from this is that the "polls" are propping up
another annointed one, a candidate that doesn't scare them
as much 'cause he's an insider.

[baby_bear]

2. I don't know, but it's interesting to think about

...what if McCain had prevailed over Bush?

Well, I guess we do know. We would be discussing President Gore right now. But even if we had been discussing a President McCain, it would have been a different world than what PNCAC has given us.
The PNACers were going to deliver GWBush regardless of democratic obstacles or cost. That was clear way back in 1998.

McCain was the unexpected and had to be dealt with swiftly and harshly. Most of the Republic never did hear what happened to him at the hands of the Conservative Right Wing Christians, (so self-described) in South Carolina.

s_m

[WI_DEM]

3. this is why NH polls are notorious for being wrong

in primary elections because independents can vote in either parties primary and so no one knows for sure what percentage of the vote they will make up in the primary. You can be sure they will vote in much heavier numbers in the Democratic primary since Bush is unopposed. I think we will have a much closer election on Tuesday than some of the polls indicate.

[isbister]

4. I'm no big fan of "Keating Five" McCain

but, boy, do I sure wish he won the republican nomination

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

6. I can't argue with that

[jsw_81]

11. I don't

If McCain had been nominated in 2000, Gore might have actually lost the election for real.

[jsw_81]

5. Wrong

The final polls in New Hampshire four years ago had McCain leading Bush by a narrow margin. The big surprise wasn't that McCain won, but that he trounced Bush by nearly twenty points.

It's possible that Kerry could lose New Hampshire this time, but since every single poll shows him beating Dean, I think it's unlikely.

[Nicholas_J]

8. Corrrect

The best way to use polls is to look at all of them and see what they all say, If a candidate is in the lead beyond the margin of erro in all of them, it is a sure thing that they are really in the lead. If they exceed a candidate by multiples of the MoE in most of them, it is a dead certtainty that those polls are extremly accurate.

Kerry is ahead of Dean by multiples of the MoE in all but one poll, and is at least 50 percent above the MoE in the one poll that isnt multiple. The only sure thing you can say about Dean is that he is struggling for second place with Clark, and now Edwards is moving in to compete for second with them.

Given that in only one poll has Dean ganed a single point and in another stayes at the same level as the day before, i looks like it is extrememly likely that Kerry will win the New Hampsire primary, and that there is only a small likelihood that Dean will go up a point or two more by tuesday.

[Nicholas_J]

7. Nope

McCaine was so far ahead of Bush that the Economist was predicting that the race would be between John McCain and Bill Bradley at the end of December 1999 and in Early January of 2000

[VolcanoJen]

9. Don't forget Gore-Bradley in NH 2000, either.

New Hampshire polls are notoriously volatile. The polls predicted Gore would blow Bradley out of the water, by a 10 to 15 point margin, but Bradley closed late, and emerged in 2nd to a 4-point finish behind Gore.

The result so surprised pollsters and voters alike, that Bradley never conceded anything, even though he had lost.

Bradley, of course, did not go on to win the nomination; nor did McCain. But it does point to the conventional wisdom that anything can happen in New Hampshire.

More here:

Primary Monitor: Bradley sees success in day's narrow defeat

Excerpt:

Conceding nothing, Bill Bradley said last night his ability to squeeze the gap on Al Gore is a victory over politics as usual, and proves he's ready to give the vice president a serious run in their cross-country rush to the Democratic convention.

"We have made a remarkable turnaround, but there is still a tough fight ahead," said Bradley, who was nearly drowned out by a wild, cheering crowd at New Hampshire College.

With late results showing him within four points of Gore, Bradley interpreted the result as win, noting how his campaign overcame a smaller war chest and near anonymity last spring to almost topple a sitting vice president backed by the party establishment.

"One week ago, they said it wouldn't happen. But it's already happened!" Bradley said, referring to polls within the last week that showed him trailing Gore by 10 to 15 percent.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

10. Since McCain is better than Bush, you're saying Kucinich will win?

eom

TWL