Even worse: Will Independents Pick the NH Winner?

[JCMach1]

They may very well be the margin of victory whoever wins...

Should they even be allowed to pick our nominee?

[lcordero]

1. yes they should since independents have been a hell of a lot

more critical of Bush than most beltway Democrats.

[Quixote1818]

2. I think it's OK because

The first two states are small easy to get around states. You want to put up a candidate that appeals to a broad number of people so they will be viable in a National Election. Including independents does this. The first two states being small gives a large number of people from each state the chance to get to know the candidates on a personal level. I think it serves a purpose but that's debatable.

[jsw_81]

3. How amusing

Just a few weeks ago, the Dean supporters were gushing about how well their guy would do among independents in New Hampshire. Now they don't even want them to vote!

[JCMach1]

4. It MAY actually hurt Kerry....

I am making a general obervation... not a partisan swipe...

Although I know most people in GD2004 are not used to that...

:)

[drfemoe]

15. Please don't assume

that Lisa Simpson is my candidate.

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. We're gonna need the independents in November, so why not now?

And we're gonna need a candidate they will vote for. Guess who ain't it? :evilgrin:

[JCMach1]

6. They may also be distorting the polls...

If they aren't accounted for-- or accounted for in the right percentage.

[Lexingtonian]

9. Polls adjust for them

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

pretty much counts in ~1 Independent for every 2 Democrats who show up. Some Dean supporting people have claimed that they will get 4x as many Indies.

Compare theirs to numbers given at e.g.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/tracking_poll/

which has to use a similar demographic model. And you don't hear any real squawking out of the campaigns that their candidate is getting numbers they aren't seeing in their own surveys. One seems to be telling its own supporters that the pollings are wrong- but don't tell us what their evidence is.

Polling today...the ones reported on the early evening news here seem to show continuation of all the trends of the past few days. The ones that seem to have polled into early evening are all screwy tonight.

[JCMach1]

10. In my own campaign experience... Indies are tough to account for

Unless they are an indy SUPERVOTER, it is difficult to tell whether they will show or not.

[KaraokeKarlton]

13. Actually, in NH, Independents are the majority

About 40% of the state is registered Independent. Only about 26% are registered Democrats. Independents do tend to vote in NH. It's likely that there will be more Independents voting in this primary than there are Democrats. The NH Independents like Dean and Clark best. Dean has the advantage of NH residents sharing network news and print news with Vermont in most areas of the state, so NH residents know Dean has a great record. NH and Vermont are like extensions of one another as well.

[jeter]

7. Worst still....

...Republicans can vote too.

[Adjoran]

8. New Hampshire has an "open" primary

Republicans CANNOT vote, but independents can. They usually do.

Different states can set different rules. In most southern states there is no party registration. You can vote in either primary, but not both. You can't vote in one party's runoff if you voted in the other party primary, but other than that it is pretty open.

That means, since the repubs have no primaries this year, there will be a heavy crossover vote in the south. Compared to that problem, NH has a great system.

[REP]

11. Heh

I'm a registered Independent. I am so registered so I can vote in my state's open primaries and in years when there is a Dem incumbent, I can vote for the looniest, weakest Repub candidate (like Bill Simon). I know I'm not the only one who does that, and I think we can be trusted to vote!

[JCMach1]

12. Precisely, they're loony!

just kidding...!!!

:evilgrin:

[drfemoe]

14. Someone in NH doesn't seem to think so

Demo candidates see dirty tricks
Chicago Tribune
MANCHESTER, N.H. -
... "So far, the New Hampshire attorney general is investigating phone calls made to independent voters incorrectly telling them that they are not eligible to vote in the Jan. 27 primary. At the New Hampshire headquarters for Howard Dean, someone plastered Confederate flag stickers on the cars in the parking lot. And staff members of Sen. Joseph Lieberman on Monday night tore down campaign signs belonging to retired Gen. Wesley Clark near the Manchester Airport." ...
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/01/25/build/nation/45-dirtytricks.inc

[LTR]

16. Lieberman's people tore down Clark signs?

Supporters? What? All five of them?

[drfemoe]

17. The article says ..

"staff people". I'm assuming since this is Lieberman's first primary, he does have staff people. The link is included for fuller coverage. Lieberman is polling above Clark in NH, IIRC.